Vikas, Muslims & Gujjars Helped Sachin Pilot Win Tonk But All 3 Are Now Shaky

Sachin Pilot's campaign is being seen as a counter to an anti-incumbent undercurrent. A look at 3 factors on ground.

"It is the son of Tonk who is making a national leader go from door-to-door for votes," said Ajit Singh Mehta, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate challenging Congress leader Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan's Tonk constituency.

For Mehta, going up against Pilot in the upcoming elections is a big gamble considering the margin with which Pilot won the seat in 2018 - over 54,000 votes in a constituency of 2.45 lakh voters. Mehta had won the seat for the party in 2013.

The former MLA, however, pointed out Pilot's changed approach with a 'door-to-door' campaign, an observation that some of Tonk's voters echo as well. One of their key complaints against Pilot was the "difficulty of access to their MLA for five years."

"He mostly remained embroiled in state-level politics and had to deal with a lot of issues of his own. So, somewhere along the road, we didn't feel that personal connect with him the way we have felt with our previous representatives. He is such a big name after all," a local Gujjar leader, associated with the Tonk unit of Congress party for the past five decades said.

Pilot's approach, however, is being seen as a way to counter an anti-incumbent undercurrent against the former deputy chief minister among key sections of his voters that ensured his massive victory last time.

Before you move on to the full report, an overview from the ground in 3-minutes:

Camera: Koustubh Mukherjee

To understand the undercurrent, we zoom in to three factors that ensured Pilot's victory in 2018:

The 'Vikas' Factor

"In 2018, we thought we will get a chief minister from Tonk," is a common sentiment being echoed by voters across Tonk when asked what made them vote for Pilot in 2018.

Most people recall the frenzy when Pilot was first declared a candidate ahead of the 2018 Assembly elections for two reasons -

• Pilot's political stature

• The hope of a 'vikas ki kaya-palat' (boost to development) in Tonk

Despite the region's proximity to Jaipur, locals have struggled for better roads, sewage, and the long-standing unfulfilled wish of the region's voters — Railway connectivity.

The Hits:

There is a lot the locals credit Pilot for, including the 'overhaul' of the Tonk civil hospital with doubling the strength of doctors, bringing infacilities like X-Ray and CT-Scan machines, and strengthening the medical staff. Pilot has also ensured the approval of the new Unani Medical College in the city.

Despite being irked about lack of his personal presence, the locals hail Pilot's efforts to ensure the availability of hospital beds, oxygen tanks, and medicines at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.

Though a project of the Centre, locals credit Pilot equally for the construction of the Gehlot Ghat bridge that has eased the connectivity of 150-200 villages of the Todaraisingh and Malpura regions with Tonk.

Locals also credit Pilot with enhancing government schools' libraries, and constructing new classrooms and science labs in many schools.

The Misses:

Scores feel that Pilot being a national leader was more focussed on the 'issues in Jaipur', pointing out his tiff with Gehlot, and left the constituency to his 'middlemen'.

"We didn't see as much development work as we expected but whatever happened was good. Tonk had voted for him based on his celebrity status. People expected rail connectivity to finally arrive in Tonk. In entire of Rajasthan, there is only Tonk district that does not have rail connectivity. The Centre and state governments only shifted blame for five years," a member of the Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee (RPCC) told The Quint on condition of anonymity.

A railway line between Ajmer and Sawai Madhopur via Tonk was approved in 2014 on a cost sharing basis between the Centre and the state. CM Gehlot has on several occasions raised the issue in the public domain. But the people of Tonk had their hopes pinned on Pilot.

Of course, rail connectivity largely depends on the Centre so there are limits to what Pilot could have done.

The key issues bothering the locals include alleged corruption in administration, betterment of roads and sewage, and 24x7 uninterrupted water supply in Tonk city and several villages around it.

"When Pilot was an MP from Ajmer, he got a lot of things done. He brought an industry to Kishangarh, Ajmer got an airport too. People expected that he would get one or two good industries here which would create jobs or more educational institutes considering Tonk's proximity to Jaipur. But such expectations were not fulfilled. He mostly remained embroiled in state-level politics and issues of his own," the RPCC leader said.

The Muslim Factor

'Lucknow of Rajasthan', 'Land of Nawabs'- several local connotations are used to describe Tonk, which the Congress has historically considered a 'minority seat' given the dominance of Muslim population in the Tonk city seat.

The 65,000 something Muslims out of 2,45 lakh voters in Pilot's constituency were taken by surprise in 2018 when the Congress for the first time since 1972 took a gamble to field a non-Muslim candidate with Pilot in 2018 for the first time since the constituency was carved out in 1972. The BJP, meanwhile, fielded a Muslim candidate for the first time with Yoonus Khan.

The community voted heavily for Pilot despite the break from tradition for both parties. But come 2023, Pilot is believed to have lost significant amount of charm within the community, especially within the local party unit.

Several local Muslim leaders of the Congress, including Muslim councillors, said that they feel sidelined by Pilot.

Many are still irked by Pilot's stand on the Tablighi Jamaat controversy in 2020 ad believe that deteriorated the outlook of Tonk's non-Muslims towards the community. In an interview to a news channel, Pilot said that "all those who are responsible and all those who gave permission for such a large gathering must be punished."

Similarly, his statement on the Rajasthan High Court's acquittal of the Jaipur blasts accused being a 'failure' of the Gehlot government also weighs heavily on the community. Several local Congress workers from the community had also confronted Pilot publicly to express disappointment on his statement in July this year, and also questioned his silence over the lynching of Junaid and Nasir by cow vigilantes in Ghatmika.

With Pilot entering the fray in 2018, many from the community hoped that the Congress would field a Muslim candidate for Lok Sabha in 2019. The Congress, however, fielded heavyweight Namo Narain Meena.

One of the key reasons behind the community's resentment against Pilot was also a weak or no stand on issues like the Junaid-Nasir's killing and the Iqbal murder case.

The BJP's pitch to deploy Ramesh Bidhuri as the Tonk election incharge, however, is seen by the community as a clear attempt to polarise voters. Bidhuri is accused of making a hate speech against a Muslim MP in Parliament.

Many within the party feel that his presence will only divert more of the community's voters towards the Congress, including the disgruntled ones.

However, two more candidates in the fray might muddy the waters — Social Democratic Party of India's Abdul Lateef, backed by the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) , and Mohammed Shoeb Khan of Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party.

The Gujjar Factor

Pilot, undisputedly one of the tallest names among Gujjar leaders, still enjoys the popularity in the community within the entire Tonk-Sawai Madhopur belt and beyond.

The BJP, however, is looking to corner Pilot on the Gujar front in the region with the aim to not let Pilot sway the community outside the Tonk Assembly seat. Three key leaders have been tasked by the BJP to counter Pilot's Gujjar support in the entire Tonk-Sawai Madhopur region.

Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria: The Lok Sabha MP from the Tonk-Sawai Madhopur Lok Sabha, Jaunapuria has been the tallest Gujar face of the BJP in the region. He won the seat in both 2014 and 2019 elections with over 52% votes despite a heavyweight like former union minister Namo Narain Meena in the fray last time. According to sources, Jaunapuria has been tasked with building a rhetoric against Pilot about 'not doing anything for the community.'

Ramesh Bidhuri: Other than the veiled communal agenda being seen by many behind Delhi MP Ramesh Bidhuri being parachuted to Tonk days after the hate speech row, Bidhuri is also one of the most prominent national Gujjar faces of the BJP. The region has a sizeable population of Bidhuri Gujjars. Many, however, believe that his presence won't sway the community in the BJP's favour.

Vijay Bainsla: Son of Col Kirori Lal Bainsla, the tallest Gujjar activist and leader in the state credited with getting reservation for the community in 2019, the BJP has fielded his son Vijay Bainsla from the neighbouring Deoli Uniara seat. The father-son duo had joined the BJP in 2019 before Kirori Lal's demise in 2022. Vijay succeeded his father as the president of the Gurjar Arakshan Sangharsh Samiti, one of the most prominent bodies representing the community in the state.

Pilot's charm as a leader remains intact but according to local experts, the task is way more uphill than it was in 2018. Voters sympathise him over attempts to sideline him from the state leadership, but many who voted for him in 2018 have second thoughts about what more could Pilot do for Tonk, especially with the Congress' victory being uncertain.

Tonk may vote for Sachin Pilot once again, but a repeat of the 2018 mandate seems unlikely.