22 Parties Unite Over EVMs: Can This Be a Coalition After Results?

If we go by the CVoter & Nielsen exit polls, combined tally of anti-BJP parties could be around 210-220 seats.

Exit polls may have shown the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance returning to power, but the Opposition hasn’t given up the fight. This is clear in how they are holding the Election Commission to account on Electronic Voting Machines.

As many as 22 Opposition parties have given a memorandum to the Election Commission, putting forward two key demands:

1. The verification of VVPAT slips of randomly identified polling stations should be done before counting of votes and not after the last round of counting.
2. In case a discrepancy is found in a polling booth, VVPAT slips should be tallied with EVM figures in an entire Assembly constituency.

But the action isn’t just happening in the national capital. Samajwadi Party workers were seen taking turns to keep watch on strongrooms where the EVMs are being kept, supposedly to prevent any attempt at EVM swapping. RJD workers tracked EVMs in Bihar and raised the issue that the procedure wasn’t being followed. Afzal Ansari, the BSP candidate from Ghazipur in Uttar Pradesh, staged a dharna outside a counting centre demanding proper security for EVMs.

A Post Poll Coalition?

While the ball is in the Election Commission’s court on whether they will agree to the Opposition’s demands, the political significance of this is that the EVM row has brought 22 parties together ahead of results day. This could potentially be the core of any post-poll coalition, in case the NDA falls short of the 272 majority mark.

The main parties behind the memorandum to the EC are: The Congress and the other constituents of the UPA, the three Mahagathbandhan parties from Uttar Pradesh – SP, BSP and RLD, the Trinamool Congress, the Telugu Desam Party, Left Parties, Aam Aadmi Party, NPF and Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party among others.

If we go by the CVoter and ABP-Nielsen exit polls, the combined tally of all these parties put together would be around 210-220 seats, around 60-70 seats behind the NDA.

However, if the final tally of this anti-BJP formation crosses 240, they would be in a position to reach out to fence-sitting parties like the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, YSRCP and Biju Janata Dal, to explore the possibilities of forming a coalition government.

The backroom negotiations are already underway and leaders like NCP chief Sharad Pawar are said to be playing a key role.

The Naidu Problem

One major challenge the UPA is facing in its outreach towards two key fence-sitting parties – TRS and YSRCP – is the key role TDP chief and Andhra Pradesh chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu is playing in the Opposition’s efforts.

Naidu is the arch-rival of YSRCP chief YS Jaganmohan Reddy. Telangana chief minister and TRS chief K Chandrashekar Rao’s dislike towards Naidu is also well known.

Apparently, in its outreach to the two parties, the Congress is said to have communicated its willingness to distance itself from Naidu.

However, it is unlikely that the TRS or YSRCP will make its stand clear before the results are declared on 23 May.

In case the NDA falls short of a majority, the UPA would have to act quickly on results day, the way it did after the Assembly elections in Karnataka by immediately offering the chief minister’s chair to HD Kumaraswamy of the Janata Dal (Secular). A key part of this would be to find a prime ministerial face who would be acceptable to not just anti-BJP parties like the TMC, SP, BSP and the Left but also to fence-sitting parties like YSRCP, TRS and BJD.