In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP took the lead in only one out of the 46 assembly segments spread across the three constituencies in the Kashmir Valley. And the ‘honour’ has gone to none other than Tral — home to the Valley’s two most prominent guerrilla commanders, both of whom have now been killed – Burhan Wani and Zakir Musa.
The Hizbul Mujahideen’s top commander Burhan Wani, whose death triggered an unceasing turmoil was killed in an encounter with security forces in South Kashmir’s Kokernag in July 2016. Founder-Chief of the Al-Qaeda-affiliate Ansar Ghazwatul Hind or Islamic State of Jammu and Kashmir (ISJK), Zakir Musa, was killed in an encounter close to his village in Tral on the day of the counting of votes this year, that is, 23 May.
Burhan’s, Zakir’s and PDP’s Fortress
An impregnable fortress of Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) since 2008, the Tral segment of South Kashmir’s Jamaat-e-Islami-dominated Pulwama district has been the hub of jihadist militancy over the last five years. Even the PDP’s MLA from Tral in the last two terms, Mushtaq Ahmad Shah, is known to have once met Burhan Wani and called the militants “martyrs” and “our brothers”.
From Burhan Wani to Zakir Musa, and from Sabzar Bhat to Riyaz Naikoo (now the last surviving top commander), many of the militants have sprouted from this area. Dadsar, where Zakir Musa was killed last week, retains the dubious distinction of having contributed the maximum number of militants in a single village, and has, naturally, suffered the maximum fatalities in the last 30 years of the insurgency in Kashmir.
Militants’ threats of blinding the voters with sulfuric acid, coupled with a surge in separatist sentiments, reduced the turnout to the lowest ever since 1989, of 8.76 percent, in the South Kashmir Lok Sabha constituency.
This time around, it was primarily because of the low voter turnout that PDP President Mehbooba Mufti was not only defeated by the National Conference (NC) candidate Hasnain Masoodi, but was also pushed to the third position in PDP’s traditional stronghold, Anantnag.
Distressingly Low Voter Turnout
As The Quint had foreseen well before 23 May, just 6 out of the 16 segments in South Kashmir had determined the fate of 18 candidates, notably that of Hasnain Masoodi (NC), Ghulam Ahmad Mir (Congress) and Mehbooba Mufti (PDP).
The segment-wise turnout was:
- Over 20 percent in Pahalgam
- Over 20 percent in Noorabad
- Around 19 percent in Kokernag
- Over 18 percent in Dooru
- Over 17 percent in Devsar
It was extremely low in the remaining 10 segments: Pampore (5.54 percent), Shopian (4.61 percent), Anantnag (4.18 percent), Bijbehara (3.23 percent), Kulgam (2.33 percent), Wachi (2.26 percent), Rajpora (2.19 percent), Tral (1.59 percent), Homeshalibug (1.14 percent) and Pulwama (1.05 percent).
In the last assembly elections in 2014, while Tral had registered a lower voter turnout as compared to other segments, it had still seen a turnout of 37.69 percent. Today, it’s far more abysmal.
Low Turnout Gives Push to BJP
In Tral, only about 1,019 votes were polled. BJP’s Sofi Yousuf got 323 votes, followed by National Conference nominee Hasnain Masoodi (234), PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti (220) and Congress candidate Ghulam Ahmad Mir (144).
The dismal turnout, or boycott of polls, helped the BJP achieve the distinction of leading in Tral.
The migrants, for whom special polling stations had been set up in Udhampur, Jammu and Delhi, have almost en bloc voted for the BJP in all three constituencies in the Valley. According to official data, 11,648 out of 13,537 migrant votes (over 86 percent) have gone to the BJP.
Migrants’ ‘Most-Favoured’ Party
In Srinagar, BJP’s Khalid Jehangir has polled 4,631 votes, which constitutes just 2.50 percent of the total (valid) votes polled. Not more than 2,047 resident Kashmiris have voted for the BJP candidate who, on the other hand, has bagged 2,584 migrant votes. Just 2,837 migrants have exercised their right to franchise in this Central Kashmir constituency.
In Baramulla, BJP candidate Mohammad Maqbool War has polled 7,894 votes, which is 1.78 percent of the total valid votes polled. While just 1,813 resident voters have favoured the BJP candidate, 6,081 of his votes have come from the migrants.
In all, 2,517 migrants have cast their vote in Baramulla.
In Anantnag, BJP senior leader, MLC and contesting candidate Sofi Yousuf, has polled 10,225 votes. It works out to 8.24 percent of the total number of votes polled. While Yousuf has got just 2,978 votes from the residents, he has bagged 7,251 of the 8,168 migrant votes polled.
No. 1 In 30 Segments, NC Reclaims Base in Valley
Dr Farooq Abdullah’s party has reclaimed its base in many of the segments it had lost in the 2014 elections. In 2014, his party, the National Conference, had lost all three valley seats to the PDP. However, in 2019 it wrested control over all the three seats from PDP.
NC has stood number one in 30 of the Valley’s 46 segments — sweeping all the eight in Srinagar, all the five in Budgam, both in Ganderbal and all the three segments in Bandipore district.
In terms of the segment victories, ‘Engineer’ Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) had stood second with its lead in five segments while PDP and Congress have led in four segments each. Sajjad Lone’s Peoples Conference (PC) party, which unsuccessfully claimed to form a coalition government with the BJP support in November 2018, had to be content with just two segments, as its candidates were defeated in all the three constituencies. For now, the results have set aside speculations of Lone becoming chief minister.
In terms of the vote share in the Valley, the NC got 37.05 percent, PC got 17.65 percent, PDP received 15.96 percent and AIP was at 13.79 percent. The Congress contested on two seats and secured a vote share of 8.99 percent. The BJP contested on all three seats but got only three percent of the vote share.
(The writer is a Srinagar-based journalist. He can be reached @ahmedalifayyaz.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)