Meghalaya Elections: BJP Faces 3 Obstacles as it Aims at a Double-Digit Tally

BJP lacks an organic base in Meghalaya, except in a handful of seats in Shillong.

The BJP is contesting all 60 seats in the ongoing Assembly elections in Meghalaya but it is caught in a bind in the state for three reasons.

1. Anti-Christian image and the lack of a base.

2. It's dilemma of whether to attack Conrad Sangma or not.

3. Allegations against its senior leader Bernard Marak.

1. Anti-Christian Image, Lack of a Base

Two of the main Opposition parties in the state - the Trinamool Congress and Congress - are accusing the BJP of being "anti-Christian" and a party representing "outsiders".

This narrative against the BJP is being strengthened due to a drive against religious conversions in neighbouring Assam.

On 5 February, the Janajati Dharma Sanskriti Suraksha Mancha - a Hindutva organisation with links to the Sangh Parivar - announced that it would be carrying out a 'Chalo Dispur' march on 12 February to step up its agitation for delisting the converted people among the STs and making them ineligible for reservation in government jobs, educational institutions and other benefits.

Now, Dispur is barely a few kilometers away from the Assam-Meghalaya border and any such anti-Christian mobilisation is likely to have a ripple effect in the Christian-majority state.

The TMC and Congress have both accused the BJP of pursuing an "anti-minority" agenda.

Though the BJP has tried to distance itself from the anti-conversion drive, there is some distrust towards the party in Meghalaya.

Historically, the BJP has been only a marginal player in Meghalaya. In the last two decades, the party has managed to win only in two seats - both in and around Shillong and having a sizable number of migrant voters.

Till date the only seat it has won outside Shillong was the Dalu seat in West Garo Hills in 1998, which happens to have a sizable Hindu population.

Presently the BJP has only two MLAs in the 60-member Meghalaya Assembly - Sanbor Shullai from South Shillong and Alexander Laloo Hek from Pynthorumkhrah, on the northern part of Shillong near the BSF mess.

Both Shullai and Hek are strong local leaders who have also won on non-BJP tickets in the past - in 2013, Shullai won on an NCP ticket and Hek from the Congress. However, Hek had won on a BJP ticket from Pynthorumkhrah in 1998, 2003 and 2008 making it one of the few BJP bastions in Meghalaya.

The BJP also managed to come a close second in the North Shillong seat in 2018, with its candidate losing by just 406 votes. BJP's Meghalaya unit president Ernest Mawrie is contesting from the West Shillong seat.

Another seat the BJP is optimistic about is Ranikor near the Bangladesh border, where former speaker Martin Danggo is contesting. It is also hoping to make some inroads in a few Hindu pockets in the Garo Hills.

Hek, Shullai, Mawrie and Danggo are being considered the front-runners for the CM post of the BJP somehow manages to form the government in Meghalaya.

2. To Attack Conrad Sangma or Not

Due to the absence of a proper base, the best case scenario for the BJP would be to somehow reach double digits by taking advantage of multi-cornered contests and local adjustments.

It would also hope that Meghalaya throws a hung Assembly and the BJP can once again facilitate an alliance between NPP and regional parties like the UDP, PDF and HSPDP but with the saffron party having better numbers and more leverage.

Eventually, the party wants to become a decisive player like it has become in Nagaland. The BJP also wouldn't mind if the NPP weakens and UDP grows as it may increase its leverage.

However, due to this post poll possibility, the BJP is in a bit of a dilemma on how much to attack Conrad Sangma and his NPP, which remains part of the NDA nationally.

So far the party's state unit hasn't been pulling any punches and has accused the NPP of being corrupt.

The BJP's main pitch in the Meghalaya elections is to accuse NPP and Congress of being corrupt and emphasising on schemes and funds provided by the central government.

Despite the attacks on Conrad Sangma, the BJP's central leadership hasn't been very aggressive against the CM. Even Conrad Sangma on his part, has been praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi, home minister Amit Shah and Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, especially regarding the border dispute talks between Assam and Meghalaya.

Due to this relationship and the lack of a base, the BJP isn't quite being taken seriously as an Opposition party. The Opposition space is still being occupied by the Trinamool Congress, Congress and the NPP's post-poll ally the United Democratic Party.

3. Allegations Against Bernard Marak

A key player in the BJP's strategy against Conrad Sangma is Bernard Marak, member of the Garo Hill Autonomous District Council from Tura. He is contesting against Conrad Sangma from the South Tura Assembly constituency.

Marak has been a major bone of contention between the BJP and the NPP.

In July 2022, the Tura Police arrested Marak from Hapur in Western Uttar Pradesh for allegedly running a sex racket in a farmhouse in Edenbari, a few kilometers away from Tura town.

The police claims that it rescued five minors from the farmhouse and Marak was booked under the POCSO Act among other charges.

Popularly called the 'Rimpu Bagan scandal' the incident created a major shock among the public.

Marak spent over three months in jail. However, his supporters say that he is being framed and that the farmhouse in question wasn't a brothel at all.

The BJP leadership has stood by Bernard Marak and accused Conrad Sangma of carrying out a witch-hunt against him.

BJP's national general secretary (organisation) BL Santhosh even went to the extent of comparing Marak with Amit Shah.

"The Congress tried the same with Amit Shah. They sent him to jail. Now you know who Amit Shah is and where the people who tried to target him are. I assure you that in the same way, whoever tried to decimate Marak, will be taught the same lesson,” Santhosh said at a rally in January.