(This story was first published on 26 December 2024. It is being republished in light of Rahul Gandhi's speech in the Parliament in which he raised concerns regarding discrepancies in electoral rolls in the Maharashtra Assembly polls. The Election Commission, however, has refuted these claims.)
The Election Commission of India (ECI), on 24 December, dismissed allegations of discrepancies in voter data in the recently concluded Maharashtra State Assembly elections.
These allegations were levelled by the Congress in a letter submitted to the poll body on 29 November.
The two main issues raised by the party were:
Arbitrary deletion of voters and subsequent addition of over 10,000 voters in each constituency from the final voter lists.
Inexplicable increase in voting percentages from 5 pm to the final voting percentage declared by EC at 11.30 pm on the day of polling.
In its response, the Commission said that considering 5 pm turnout as final is a 'misconception' and that while the voting officially ends at 5 pm in most places, those already at the polling booth are allowed to cast their votes however long it takes.
The Congress party, in its letter, had also alleged that in 50 Assembly constituencies where there was an average increase of 50,000 voters before the Assembly elections. The ruling regime and its allies secured victory in 47 of these 50 constituencies.
The Commission, in its response, said that the allegation was "misleading" and "factually Incorrect". In only five constituencies, the total addition were over 50,000 electors, the Commission said.
To understand the allegations levelled by Congress in context of the outcome of the elections, The Quint analysed several sets of voter data released over the years by ECI and the Maharashtra Chief Election Officer (CEO).
Here's what we found:
Unprecedented Increase in Voters on Electoral Rolls Between July and November
The Congress, in its letter, alleged: "The exercise of unchecked and arbitrary deletion and consequent insertion of voters, the State of Maharashtra witnessed an unprecedented increase of an estimated 47 Lakh voters being added to the electoral roll from between July-November 2024."
We looked at the number of electors (registered voters) in Maharashtra in each election since 2004.
What we found was that in line with the Congress' allegation, in the five months between the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the 2024 Assembly elections in Maharashtra, 40,81,229 new voters were added to the rolls. While in five years between the 2019 Assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections 31,03,745 new voters were added to the rolls. This means that more new voters were added in five months, than were added over five years.
This is the first time since 2004 that the number of new voters added to the rolls in five months between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections is more than the number of new voters added to the rolls in five years between the Assembly election and the subsequent Lok Sabha elections. For instance, 11,62,788 new voters were added to the rolls in five months between the 2019 Lok Sabha elections (held in April-May) and the 2019 Maharashtra State Assembly elections (held in October); Whereas, 51,49,047 new voters were added to the rolls in five years between the 2014 State Assembly elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Over the last two decades, Maharashtra saw a steady decline in the number of new electors being added in each election cycle. Presumably, this is due to the declining population growth rate. A minor increase was seen in 2009 (as compared to 2004) when the number of new electors added between 2009 Lok Sabha and 2009 Assembly election was 30,14,254. The corresponding figure for 2004 was 29,53,584 electors. Since 2009, however, this figure went down to 25,81,758 electors in 2014 and 11,62,788 electors in 2019, only to sharply rise to 40,81,229 electors being added in 2024.
The poll body is yet to come up with an explanation for these deviations from an established trend. We also compared the elector data of Maharashtra with Haryana and Jharkhand, two other states which go to polls a few months after the Lok Sabha elections. None of the two states showed similar deviation in trends.
Over 18 Lakh New Voters Added in 78 Assembly Constituencies — Of These BJP+ Won 68
While the EC dismissed Congress allegation of an average increase of 50,000 electors in 50 Assembly constituencies as "factually incorrect", The Quint has found that of the 40,81,229 new electors added between July-November 2024, over 18 Lakh were concentrated in just 13 Parliamentary constituencies. We have taken Parliamentary constituencies as the Assembly-segment wise total number of electors at the time of Lok Sabha elections, isn't available on the EC website.
All of these constituencies saw an increase of more than 1 Lakh electors in five months.
These Lok Sabha seats include Kalyan, Thane, Shirur, Maval, Bhiwandi, Nagpur, Palghar, Baramati, Pune, Solapur, Dhule, Amravati, and Nashik.
These Parliamentary constituencies are constituted of 78 Assembly constituencies. Of these 78 Assembly constituencies, nine were won by the Opposition MVA alliance, one was won by AIMIM, whereas 68 seats were won by the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance.
It is, however, pertinent to note that Mahayuti's gains cannot be attributed solely to the increase in number of electors.
In all 13 Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP-led alliance considerably increased its absolute vote tally in the Assembly elections as compared to the Lok Sabha elections held five months ago, in three constituencies (Kalyan, Shirur, and Nagpur), the MVA alliance also increased its absolute vote tally.
Also, in several constituencies, as BJP and allies gained in terms of absolute votes, the MVA alliance suffered a significant vote loss. Therefore, it is possible that Mahayuti may have benefited due to a shift in MVA's voters between the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the subsequent Assembly election.
Consider the case of Thane Parliamentary constituency which has six Assembly seats. The total increase in electors in the constituency between July-November 2024 was 1,78,971. While the absolute increase in BJP-led Mahayuti's votes was 1,09,869, the MVA suffered a loss of 1,26,743 votes during the same time period.
Similarly, in Maval Parliamentary constituency, which also has six Assembly seats, 1,69,288 new electors were added between the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Maharashtra. During this period, the Mahayuti's absolute vote tally increased by 2,17,177 votes while that of the MVA went down by 1,46,683 votes. Without matching electoral rolls, it is difficult to predict where did Mahayuti's gains come from.
It is, hence, difficult to predict if Mahayuti's gains came from new electors or MVA's loss — or both.
(The Quint has reached out to the Election Commission of India for a response. This story will be updated as and when they respond.)