As Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid his respects to Sant Ravidas in Madhya Pradesh's Sagar district last week – just three months ahead of the state Assembly elections – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made another attempt to appeal to the Dalit voters it had lost in the 2018 polls.
During his third visit to poll-bound MP in just over a month, PM Modi performed the Bhoomi Poojan (ground-breaking ceremony) for the construction of the Saint Ravidas temple. The temple's construction, estimated at Rs 100 crore, is expected to be completed over the course of the next two years.
The temple inauguration marked the culmination of the BJP's five 'Sant Ravidas Samrasata (harmony) Yatras' conducted in the previous month. These yatras spanned 46 districts and collected "soil from 53,000 villages and water from 315 water bodies."
The path to political dominance in MP goes through securing the support of Dalit and tribal voters, with Sant Ravidas wielding significant influence over the Dalit community, which constitutes around 16 percent of the state's population.
His followers constitute the largest segment within this demographic. In the 2018 elections, the BJP won 18 out of the 35 seats reserved for the Scheduled Caste (SC) community, while Congress secured 17 seats – a 13-seat increase from the 2013 elections.
Earlier in 2023, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan organised a 'Sant Ravidas Mahakumbh' and announced a special pilgrimage train to take his disciples to his birthplace in Varanasi.
The Strategy To Garner Dalit-Tribal Support: An Attempt To Counter Anti-Incumbency
According to a senior journalist, who requested anonymity, the BJP is looking to counter the strong anti-incumbency sentiment by focusing on securing tribal and Dalit votes that the party lost in the 2018 Assembly elections. The journalist said:
"While all the political experts, media, and even the BJP-Congress are gauging at the strong wave of anti-incumbency against the ruling BJP, the party is focused towards regaining the SC-ST votes that swayed away in 2018 elections."
They further argued that this strategic emphasis on marginalised communities is a prudent move. These communities did not exhibit enthusiastic support for the BJP in the previous elections, and consolidating their votes is crucial not only for the state elections but also for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, scheduled just six months after the MP Assembly elections.
However, Arun Dixit, a senior journalist-turned-political commentator, pointed out that despite the BJP's relentless attempts to consolidate the Dalit votes, the magnitude of anti-incumbency is too substantial to overcome. Dixit said:
"The BJP's efforts seem to be more desperate than strategic as the elections approach, evident from the increasingly hostile language used by the party against its opposition. While the central leadership is investing significant effort, the extent to which they will succeed in retaining power remains uncertain."
Another senior journalist in the state, Sudheer Dandotiya, said the issue of anti-incumbency trumps all challenges in front of the BJP. However, their status has changed over the last two months.
"Until a couple of months ago, the Congress appeared poised for a sweeping victory. However, with increased involvement from the Central leadership and the state government's introduction of the Ladli Behna Yojana, the situation has somewhat shifted in favour of the BJP."Sudheer Dandotiya, journalist
Dandotiya further expressed that the BJP still has a substantial journey ahead and highlighted a prevailing sense of disillusionment among male voters belonging to the SC-ST community. This disillusionment has grown due to inadequate responsiveness from local leaders, he said.
"Although the BJP might have improved its stance, male voters from the SC-ST community still exhibit a stronger inclination to vote in a different direction compared to female voters. The primary reason is that these male voters often had to tirelessly pursue local leaders to address their concerns, leading to their reluctance to support these leaders again."Sudheer Dandotiya, journalist
Congress Counters with 'Modi vs Kharge' Strategy Among Dalit Voters
While the incumbent BJP is relying on its Central leadership to attract Dalit voters, the Congress is looking to strengthen its connection with the community by deploying its party president Mallikarjun Kharge.
In the Bundelkhand region, which encompasses Sagar, Damoh, Panna, Chhattarpur, Tikamgarh, and Niwari districts, the BJP secured victory in 15 out of the 26 seats during the 2018 elections. In the same election, the Congress secured nine seats, while the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party won one seat each.
Congress insiders revealed that the party is committed to solidifying its standing among Dalit voters, with Kharge leading this effort. A party source told The Quint:
"While we performed relatively better among Dalit voters in 2018, particularly in the Bundelkhand region, this time we are aiming for a resounding victory over the BJP. We believe that with our party president's involvement, Dalit voters will be enticed to support us."
"We know that we can do much better in the Bundelkhand region. Overall, we did perform better in 2018 than we did in 2013 as far as Dalit votes are concerned but this time we want to comprehensively defeat the BJP and we are hoping that Dalit voters are wooed-in with the help of party president," a party source said.
Another senior journalist requesting anonymity said that although the Congress captured a good amount of Dalit votes, putting Kharge against PM Modi's efforts towards winning the Dalit votes kills two birds with a stone. The journalist said:
"The first good reason is that Kharge is also a national leader, hails from the community and will present a united front in front of the voters from the Dalit community. Second, it will allow the state leaders to not get carried away with fighting the BJP's central leadership and in fact focus on steering the election at the local level."
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)