With 10 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs in Haryana in phase six of polling for the Lok Sabha elections on 12 May, does the BJP retain its edge or will the Congress, led by the Hooda family, claw some of its lost ground back?
Independent Journalist Sat Singh, Gfiles Editor Anil Tyagi, and The Hush Post Editor Shamsher Chandel spoke to Bloomberg Quint's Kaushik Vaidya on poll dynamics in Haryana, including which party will likely the edge in the state, the voting pattern and the main issues dominating the elections this season.
Haryana is a state which sends a lot of members to the armed forces. On whether the issues of nationalism and national security, as asserted by the ruling party, are a normal narrative in the state going to polls on Sunday, Chandel said: “The problem this time around is that though Modi wave is there, but whether it exists on the ground is very questionable.”
Citing the example of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public rally in Kurukshetra that took place on Wednesday, 8 May, Chandel asserted that the kind of enthusiasm which was there in 2014 is missing in the 2019 elections.
During the rally on Wednesday, PM Modi listed a series of "abuses" hurled at him by the Congress from what he called is the party's "love dictionary".
Modi appeared to hit back at Congress president Rahul Gandhi over a recent remark that though the prime minister had insulted his late father Rajiv Gandhi, he only had love for him. He also brought up the air strike against Pakistan and accused the Congress of "being in love" with that country.
“In that sense, it may not really work out all that well for the BJP,” Chandel said, adding “the people in Haryana vote for the intangible.”
A Bigger Intangible Dominating Haryana’s Politics - The ‘Caste Factor’
A bigger intangible dominating Haryana’s political landscape is the ‘caste factor’, Chandel said, as he stressed on the ‘caste influence’ that has been working in favour of the Congress.
“The Congress, for example, gets a lot of Jat votes. Going by the caste-based voting patterns, it looks like that the party can reverse what happened in 2014 elections," Chandel added.
Out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress had won only the Rohtak seat in 2014.
On Sunday, 21 April, the Congress announced candidates for five Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, fielding party heavyweight and former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda from Sonipat and replacing Faridabad candidate Lalit Nagar with Avtar Singh Bhadana.
Hooda, who is looking to make a comeback to Parliament after a gap of 15 years, is pitching himself as the man who brought development to the state and his constituency.
‘It's a Candidate vs Candidate Fight in Haryana’
Responding to a question on whether the state has reached a point where its residents are finally at ease with the BJP’s decision to choose a Punjabi CM and whether the party’s voter base is intact on with regard to the voters it accumulated going into the 2014 elections, Tyagi said: "It's a candidate vs candidate fight in Haryana.”
"Haryana is a very volatile state where people want their candidates to (really) work for them,” Tyagi said, asserting that there's no Modi wave (as such) in the state.
“...And as per reports coming in from different constituencies like Kurukshetra, Karnal and Bhiwani, people are opposing the candidates when they are visiting their respective constituencies. It is a very peculiar situation (in the state) right now."
The Bhiwani-Mahendragarh parliamentary constituency was created in 2008 on recommendations of the Delimitation Commission by merging four assembly segments of Ateli, Mahendragarh, Narnaul and Nangal Chaudhry of the erstwhile Mahendragarh constituency and five assembly segments of Loharu, Badhra, Dadri, Bhiwani and Tosham of the former Bhiwani and Charkhi Dadri constituency.
Of 16.54 lakh voters, the Jat community, to which the Congress and BJP candidates belong, has over 3 lakh votes. Yadavs come second followed by Brahmins, Gurjars and Punjabis.
‘Split in Indian National Lok Dal Has Changed Equations in Haryana’
Asked about the state of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) party after the split in the family and subsequently, the implications of a breakaway faction tying with the Aam Aadmi Party, Singh said, “The split in the Indian National Lok Dal (the second-largest party) has changed the equations in Haryana.”
In dire straits after a vertical split last year and poor showing in the Jind assembly bypoll, the INLD is pinning hopes on 26-year-old Arjun Chautala, who is contesting Lok Sabha polls from Kurukshetra seat, to reverse the party's fortunes.
The fourth-generation leader of the Devi Lal clan, who shares his name with a Pandava prince from mythological epic Mahabharata, dubs his opponents as "Kauravas" and says he has come to fight a "dharam yudh".
His father Abhay Chautala while campaigning for him tells people to make Arjun victorious in the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat to save him from "Kaurava-like opponents".
On whether the split in the party means loss of votes for the Congress, Singh said “It could have been the fight between the national parties had the split not taken place.” Now, it is very difficult to say what sort of impact it will likely have on ground.”
Responding to a question on whether the issues in the border constituencies like Faridabad and Gurugram are different from those further into the state's hinterland, Chandel said the poll issues there would be a lot different than what they would be in the northern part of Haryana.
“In areas around the national capital (Gurugram and Faridabad) for example, GST and demonetisation are going to be major issues if the voters don’t cast their ballots for the intangibles (self-pride, nationalism, etc.),” Chandel said.
“In the northern part of the state, however, the issues of farmer distress and unemployment will be in focus,” Chandel added.
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