Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Who Will be Punjab's Next Parkash Singh Badal & Captain Amarinder Singh?

In Punjab, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections aren't so much about Prime Minister Narendra Modi or the INDIA Bloc that is challenging him. Rather, the elections are important because of how they may shape the state's political trajectory. This is the first major election in Punjab after the demise of five-term-chief minister Parkash Singh Badal and the 'retirement' of two-term chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh. There are three processes underway in Punjab at present.The attempts by different leaders to emerge as the new power centre of Punjab politics the way Badal and Captain were. Increasing assertion by independent actors in the Sikh political space. Increasing attempts by the Centre at expanding its influence in Punjab. The results will determine which of these processes become more dominant in Punjab politics. In this three-part series on Punjab, we will look at each of these aspects. In this piece, we will examine the different leaders contending to be the pillar of Punjab politics. In the last section we will also look at why Parkash Singh Badal and Captain Amarinder Singh ended up dominating Punjab politics. Having delivered a massive victory for AAP in the 2022 elections, CM Bhagwant Mann is already a force to reckon with in Punjab politics.Populist measures like free electricity have also brought some tangible benefits to a sizable section of people.He is also a good communicator and is one of the bigger crowd-pullers in Punjab. Regular shuffling of ministers has also enabled Mann to prevent any possible challengers from emerging from within AAP. However, he is facing major questions on the law and order front. His government is also facing flak for scaling down the Atta-Dal scheme. Moreover, some sections do see him as a leader who is controlled by AAP's central leadership on political and policy matters and the BJP-led Centre on security matters. For Mann, the Lok Sabha elections are a battle to send the signal that he is still popular and in control. Punjab has a history of giving party in power an advantage in bypolls and Lok Sabha elections. If AAP fails to be the party with the maximum seats in Punjab, it will raise questions over Mann's leadership and make him appear more like a one-time wonder than a leader who can be the new pillar of Punjab politics.However, if AAP manages to win 6 or more seats, it will establish the party as the dominant player in the run-up to the 2027 Assembly polls.The situation is far more complicated in the Congress as the party has multiple claimants to the top job.There is a strong buzz in Punjab's political circles that the way the Congress selected its candidates, works to the advantage of Leader of the Opposition Partap Singh Bajwa as many of his rivals have been fielded: Charanjit Channi from Jalandhar, Sukhjinder Randhawa from Gurdaspur, Amarinder Singh Raja Warring from Ludhiana and Sukhpal Singh Khaira from Sangrur. The argument is that this would be a win-win for Bajwa - if these leaders lose, they would be politically cut-to-size and if they win, they would be focused more on Parliament and kept away from day-to-day politics in Punjab. Bajwa's supporters say he never got his due in state politics due to Captain's dominance of Punjab Congress and the entrenchment of Bajwa's rivals like Sukhjinder Randhawa and Tript Rajinder Bajwa in his area of influence - Gurdaspur. Bajwa is 67 presently and the 2027 Assembly elections may be his last shot at becoming CM especially given the Congress' national level emphasis on ushering in a generational change. So far, Bajwa has maintained a balanced stand on contentious issues and focused on cornering the AAP government in the Punjab Assembly.Even though the Lok Sabha polls may work to Bajwa's advantage, the elections are also an opportunity for the leaders who are contesting. Each one of them will be hoping to repeat the 'Captain moment' of 2014, when Captain Amarinder Singh defeated top BJP leader Arun Jaitley in Amritsar. The win came in the middle of a Modi wave and once again made Captain the main face of the Congress in the state. Can a win do the same for any of the other leaders?Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Do AAP & Congress Have an Informal Alliance in Punjab?Congress replaced Captain Amarinder Singh with Charanjit Singh Channi in 2021, making a statement by giving Punjab its first Dalit chief minister. However, his fortunes went on the downslide after the Congress lost the 2022 Assembly elections and Channi lost both seats he contested. He was also overlooked as the candidate for the 2023 Jalandhar bypoll due to the internal machinations of the Punjab Congress.The Lok Sabha election is an opportunity for Channi to reclaim his prominence. Though he is an outsider in Jalandhar, he is said to be getting sizable support in the area. Ground inputs suggest that even a section of traditional BSP voters are tilting towards Channi in the seat. If Channi wins Jalandhar, he would be in a position to becoming the Congress' face in Punjab again, though it would be much tougher to convince the party high command given the 2022 debacle.By taking up a seat like Ludhiana, Warring - the Punjab Congress chief - has sent two signals. First is to reaffirm that he isn't afraid of taking up tough seats. He gave a scare to Harsimrat Kaur in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Bathinda and now he is taking on Congress-turned-BJP heavyweight Ravneet Bittu. But there's another aspect to this. Ludhiana - with a larger urban Hindu population - is an ideal place for Warring to play the kind of pro-Hindu and anti-Khalistan politics that Bittu had been playing for all these years. Warring has been pitching himself as a leader with such a tilt, especially with his open admiration for Indira Gandhi. His wife - Amrita Warring - also happens to be a Brahmin. If Warring defeats Bittu and AAP, he will no doubt increase in prominence in the Congress.However, if he tries to emulate Bittu's brand of politics, it may end up painting both him and Congress in an ideological corner in Punjab and prevent them from arriving at the kind of balance required to rule Punjab.Another line of criticism that Warring often faces is that while his aggressive style of politics and public speaking - such as a recent instance in which he allegedly intimidated a media organisation through a video - may work for party cadres, it could alienate the larger public.Sukhpal Singh Khaira is a bit of a wildcard entrant in the Congress. Though he has been in the Congress in the past, his politics is much more in the Akali mould and he is known to be the most Panthic politician in the Congress. He is a three-term MLA from Bholath in Kapurthala district but he has been fielded from the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat. Many saw this as an attempt by Khaira's rivals to cut him to size, especially after he had gained prominence following his arrest by the AAP government. Sangrur is a tough seat for Khaira both because he is an outsider and also because he is up against two strong candidates in AAP minister Meet Hayer and sitting MP Simranjit Singh Mann. As soon as Khaira was announced as the Congress candidate, he was slammed in Panthic circles for contesting against Simranjit Mann, considered one of the most steadfast Panthic politicians in Punjab. However, the calculations of Khaira's rivals within the party went a bit awry as he began running the campaign on his own terms.His statement that there need to be restrictions on people from buying land and settling down in Punjab, did receive support from certain sections but it put the Congress in a difficult spot. Partap Singh Bajwa had to issue a detailed clarification that the party did not subscribe to Khaira's views.Whether he wins or loses, it is clear that the Khaira's equation with many of the top leaders in Punjab Congress will remain uneasy.One of Congress' strongest faces in the Majha region, Randhawa's fortunes have steadily been on the rise in the Congress in the past few years. A prominent minister in Captain's government, Randhawa became deputy CM under Charanjit Channi. Even after the Congress lost, Randhawa's influence continued as he became the Congress' in-charge for Rajasthan. Unlike Warring and Khaira, who are playing to their respective galleries from an ideological point of view, Randhawa is a practical politician who is good at managing local equations and is known for getting work done "on the spot". However, he too, like most of the Punjab Congress leaders, lacks a pan-state appeal. Another dilemma for him would be on who will contest the bypoll from his pocket borough Dera Baba Nanak if he gets elected to Parliament. An important name we have left out from the Punjab Congress is that of its former chief Navjot Singh Sidhu. The cricketer-turned-politician has been more or less inactive politically since his release from jail. This was mainly due to his wife's cancer treatment. Sidhu has also gone back to cricket commentary during the recent Indian Premier League. Keeping a low profile is also Sidhu's way of avoiding getting into the internal tussles of the Punjab Congress especially as the knives have been out for him ever since the Congress' 2022 defeat. "This election will be the end of the Badals and the Akali Dal", CM Bhagwant Mann has been saying in his rallies. While this might be a bit of hyperbole, it is true that the SAD finds itself cornered in this election due to three reasons. Firstly, it isn't seen as a national player as it isn't part of the NDA or INDIA blocs. Secondly, it is being challenged within the Sikh religio-political space by more assertive entities like Simranjit Singh Mann's SAD (Amritsar) and Independent candidates Amritpal Singh and Sarbjit Singh. Then there are the challenges within the SAD itself. During the election campaign, Sukhbir Badal expelled Adesh Partap Singh Kairon for allegedly backing Amritpal Singh in Khadoor Sahib seat. Besides being a former minister, Kairon also happens to be Sukhbir Badal's brother-in-law. Badal also removed senior leader Sikander Singh Maluka as the halqa-in-charge of Maur constituency. There were also differences with Sukhdev Dhindsa over SAD's ticket selection in Sangrur. Since Parkash Singh Badal's demise, Sukhbir Badal has been trying to revive the Akali Dal by reaching out to breakaway factions and making organisational changes. He has even begun sporting an open beard like his father and not tying it up like he used to earlier. However, ground reports suggest that the SAD has a chance mainly in at most 3-4 out of 13 seats in Punjab. If it draws a blank, questions are likely to be raised against Sukhbir Badal's leadership.The importance of being Parkash Singh Badal and Captain Amarinder Singh stems from how both the leaders took advantage of the post-conflict situation in Punjab and consolidated themselves in the state's political landscape. Restoring the electoral process after a violent conflict is a tricky process and it often gets threatened not just by the insurgents but also the state. In 1987, the SAD government led by SS Barnala was dismissed by the Centre and President's Rule was imposed in the state. In the 1989 Lok Sabha elections - largely acknowledged as being free and fair - the hardline faction of the SAD led by Simranjit Singh Mann did very well, winning 6 out of 13 seats. Mann himself won by a huge margin in Tarn Taran, securing 89 percent of the total votes polled. By most accounts, the results spooked the establishment and they began searching for political actors they could work with in Punjab. The 1991 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab were deferred to 1992 and took place under the shadow of excesses by the police. It was boycotted by all factions of the SAD except the one headed by Captain Amarinder Singh. By the mid-1990s however, Parkash Singh Badal emerged as the first among equals in the Akali Dal, edging out his rivals. The Centre also realised the need to cultivate a moderate Panthic leadership and Badal seemed to fit the bill. Meanwhile, the Congress too realised that it couldn't continue to do politics in Punjab as a party that had the baggage of the state excesses of the 1980s and 1990s and needed someone untainted by this. It found a perfect candidate in Captain Amarinder Singh, who had resigned from the Congress to protest against Operation Bluestar and since then followed a moderate Panthic position.As a result, the politics of Punjab in the post-conflict era came to centre around two moderate Panthic politicians who struck some kind of a balance between Punjab's interests and that of the Centre and also a balance between different communities within Punjab.But this came at a cost as their regimes were characterised by increased corruption, nepotism, fiscal irresponsibility and above all, little or no action against cops guilty of atrocities.Eventually, both Badal and Captain were brought down by their own contradictions. For Badal, the end came with the 2015 sacrilege and firing incidents. For Captain it was due to his own inefficiency, the internal machinations of his party, and his struggle to balance the interests of Punjab with that of an increasingly powerful Centre under PM Modi.When we ask 'who will be the next Badal and Captain?' we don't mean a replication of these policies but who among the current crop of leaders can balance competing interests and establish their dominance in Punjab politics. The Complications of Delimitation and Representation in Punjab

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Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Who Will be Punjab's Next Badal & Captain?

A lot is at stake for CM Bhagwant Mann, SAD chief Sukhbir Badal and at least 5 Punjab Congress leaders.