Over 1/3 Candidates Among Punjab’s Major Parties are Turncoats; Most in BJP

In the last phase of Lok Sabha polls on June 1, all 13 seats of Punjab are set to witness a four-cornered fight among its major parties.Traditionally allies, BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) will be contesting Lok Sabha elections separately after a very long time. Following differences over the farm laws in 2020, the 24-year-old alliance between the parties finally broke down. Ruling AAP and former ruling party of Punjab, Congress, have also fielded their individual candidates in each of the 13 constituencies. The two parties are part of the INDIA bloc, but are contesting separately in Punjab.This political muddle in Punjab has caused several leaders to become turncoats. About 38% candidates of Punjab's major parties in this Lok Sabha elections have switched parties in the last five years.This is the first time since 1996 that BJP is contesting Lok Sabha polls in Punjab without SAD. Even in the past elections, the national party was a junior party in Punjab's alliance. Despite not being a powerful force on its own, BJP has fielded candidates on all 13 seats. However, its approach to Punjab’s electoral contest mirrors the one in adjoining Haryana where 60% of its candidates were turncoats. Similarly, in Punjab, seven or 53.8% of its total candidates are turncoats. Certain transfers, while expected, have caused the opposition parties, primarily Congress and AAP, to suffer huge blows.Of BJP’s seven turncoats, six belong to Congress.BJP has nominated former Union Minister Preneet Kaur from Patiala, who switched over to the party following her suspension from Congress. Although, not a candidate in this election, former Punjab CM Amarinder Singh, too, joined BJP in 2022. Singh had left Congress in 2021. His close aide, Gurmit Singh Sodhi is BJP candidate from Firozpur’s seat. Sodhi also broke off his four-decade long association with Congress in 2021.Two-time parliamentarian from Ludhiana, Ravneet Singh Bittu also left the Congress with his decision of switching to BJP. The move could potentially benefit BJP in Ludhiana, where Hindus comprise 66% and Sikhs constitute 28.8% of the electorate. Other notable turncoats in BJP include Gejja Ram Valmiki from Fategarh Sahib, Manjit Singh Manna from Khadoor Sahib, and Arvind Khanna from Sangrur. Sushil Kumar Rinku, party hopper who switched allegiances thrice within a span of two years is also competing on BJP’s ticket from Jalandhar. Rinku won the 2023 Lok Sabha bye-elections from Jalandhar on AAP's ticket.Another big Punjab leader who joined BJP is former Punjab Congress president Sunil Jakhar. He is not a candidate in these General Elections, but he is the chief of BJP's Punjab unit. These transfers may be key for BJP to make its independent grounds in Punjab.After the loss of Rinku in Jalandhar, AAP found a local replacement in former Akali Dal MLA Pawan Kumar Tinu. A prominent Dalit face, Tinu may potentially uplift AAP’s campaign in the seat, which houses a 39% Dalit population. Just a few weeks after Tinu joined forces with AAP, the broom in Punjab inducted former Congress legislator Gurpreet Singh GP. Another Dalit leader who could benefit AAP is Raj Kumar Chabbewal. A former Congressman, Chabbewal has been fielded from Hoshiarpur which constitutes 33.8% Dalit voters.Other turncoat candidates in AAP include Ashok Prashar Pappi from Ludhiana, Malvinder Singh Kang from Anandpur Sahib, and Gurmeet Khudian from Bathinda, and Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal from Amritsar.While Congress lost a lot of leaders to other parties in Punjab, it did manage to get some candidates from them.Congress candidate from Bathinda’s is former SAD legislator Jeetmohinder Singh Sidhu who joined the party last year. Besides Sidhu, other turncoat candidates in Congress include Amarjit Kaur Sahoke (Faridkot), Sher Singh Ghubaya (Firozpur), and Dharamvira Gandhi (Patiala).Turncoats fielded by SAD are Mohinder Kaypee in Jalandhar and Anil Joshi in Amritsar. While several other candidates in Punjab are also turncoats, the analysis at hand represents candidates who switched party allegiances from 2019 onwards (the last General Elections). These turncoats include BJP’s Hans Raj Hans, AAP’s Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal, Congress’ Yamini Gomar, and SAD’s Prem Singh Chandumajra and Rajwinder Singh DharamkotOver one third candidates from major parties in Punjab are turncoats, but this phenomenon doesn’t necessarily translate into a higher chance of victory. In the last Lok Sabha polls of 2019, the strike rates of turncoats from the major parties declined, according to an analysis by Lokdhaba. In 2019, the SAD-BJP alliance won four seats in Punjab, while AAP managed to win just one seat. Congress grabbed the highest majority or the remaining eight seats. While Congress is trying to retain its stronghold in Punjab, these defections are likely to influence the game. Results for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls will be declared on 4 June.

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Over 1/3 Candidates Among Punjab’s Major Parties are Turncoats; Most in BJP

About 38% candidates nominated by Punjab’s major parties in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections are turncoats.

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Topics: Punjab 2024 Lok Sabha Elections