Testing 'Ahinda': Why Siddaramaiah Contesting in Kolar May Help Congress

Former Chief Minister of Karnataka and Congress veteran Siddaramaiah is convinced that he should contest from Kolar, apart from Varuna – the constituency assigned to him in the grand old party’s first list of candidates released in March. While sources told The Quint that the Congress high command may allow him to contest from both the constituencies, it is pertinent to ask why the 75-year-old chose Kolar – a seat which the Congress has not won for many years.Reason: Kolar will offer a testing ground for his pet ideology – Ahinda, an acronym for Alpasankhyataru (Minorities), Hindulidavaru (Backward Classes), and Dalitaru (Dalits).In essence, Ahinda stands for an alliance DK Khaparde and ‘Manyavar’ Kanshiram platformed successfully in Uttar Pradesh through BAMCEF (Backward and Minority Communities Employees Federation) in the 1970s. While BAMCEF’s ideology stood the electoral test through Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Ahinda is not yet an established electoral front in Karnataka.In 2023 Assembly election, Siddaramaiah plans to make Ahinda the foundation of his electoral campaign, and Kolar is the right constituency for it. Why?CVoter Survey Predicts Clear Majority for Congress in Karnataka Assembly PollsMinorities, Backward Classes, and Dalits Can Be Decisive in KolarEven before election dates were announced and official campaigning began, Siddaramaiah had visited Kolar on multiple occasions. However, the Congress high command insisted that he contest from Varuna where his son Yathindra Siddaramaiah is the incumbent MLA. While he agreed, he still seems to have set his eyes on Kolar.Kolar is a constituency which, according to his supporters’ calculations, does not give the electoral upper hand to two dominant castes in Karnataka – Lingayats and Vokkaligas.This southern Karnataka constituency has 20.13 percent Muslim population, 23.61 percent Scheduled Castes population, and 4 percent Scheduled Tribes population.“Out of 2.20 lakh eligible voters, around 72,000 are Dalits, 65,000 are Muslims, and 30,000 are Kurubas (BC). Even if he polls 50 percent of these votes, Siddaramaiah will sail through,” said Dinesh Amin Mattu who served as advisor to Siddaramaiah when he was the Chief Minister of Karnataka from 2013 to 2018. In contrast with the Dalit-Bahujan votes, Vokkaligas have about 50,000 votes in the constituency even as Lingayat votes are scattered and miniscule. While Lingayats have traditionally been supporting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Vokkaligas have been Janata Dal (Secular)’s voters. The incumbent MLA in Kolar is K Srinivasa Gowda of the JD(S).Given the caste dynamics in Kolar, Siddaramaiah, a Kuruba himself, will be the right candidate for Congress, his supporters claim.“He told the high command that he wants to contest from Kolar and the matter is under consideration. Mostly likely, the high command will allow him to contest here,” said BS Shivanna, Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) General Secretary.But it is not just the possibility of victory which is drawing Siddaramaiah to Kolar. After all, he has a strong chance in Varuna where his son had won the previous elections with a wide margin of 58,616 votes. A Congress leader quoted Siddaramaiah as having said, “He said he will leave the campaign in Varuna to Yathindra. He wants to concentrate on Kolar.”Why Is the BJP Predicted To Incur Losses Even in Coastal & Mumbai-Karnataka?Ahinda Test in KolarThe Congress in Karnataka has been concentrating largely on a two pronged campaign – foregrounding development by promising substantial welfare measures and steering clear of the BJP’s polarising campaigns and promises.Siddaramaiah’s campaign in Kolar could add a third dimension – social justice – to the Congress’ campaign.“Siddaramaiah has never compromised whenever marginalised communities faced injustice. He has always been the first to react to any sort of atrocity against these communities. From anti-Halal to anti-Hijab campaigns of the BJP, Siddaramaiah has constantly been with the minorities too,” Mattu said, explaining why the Ahinda project should get prominence in Kolar. But Siddaramaiah’s proposed campaign in Kolar and the rest of Karnataka also offers an electoral message which leaders of other South Indian states including Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin and Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan have been successfully employing.Siddaramaiah, like Stalin and Vijayan, confronts not just the BJP but also the national party’s parent organisation – the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).For instance, in the recently concluded Assembly session, Siddaramaiah accused the RSS of “creating terror.” He reportedly said, “Who killed Gauri Lankesh? They are from Sanatana Dharma. Who belongs to the Sanatana Dharma? It is the RSS and they create terror.” In essence, Kolar and Karnataka could be the gateway through which the grand old party can test whether its leaders can take up social justice as a campaign trope. Can this prospect be tested in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections of 2024?Ahinda, and by extension Bahujan unity, would differentiate Congress' efforts from the caste engineering project of the BJP, which dabbles with the electoral trope of representation, without dwelling on the concept of justice for historically marginalised communities. Also, Karnataka could be the testing ground for Congress developing a confrontational approach to the RSS. “Siddaramaiah does not peddle soft-Hindutva,” Mattu pointed out.Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile, is expected to campaign in Kolar on 5 April. This is where he reportedly made the speech, during his Lok Sabha election campaign of 2019, targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surname. A Gujarat court convicted Rahul Gandhi in a defamation case around this remark, leading to his disqualification from the Lower House of the Parliament. While the BJP has been calling this remark an “insult to the OBCs,” can the Congress turn the narrative around through Siddaramaiah’s Ahinda campaign in Kolar?It is easier said than done, as the Congress does have some hurdles to overcome in Kolar.Karnataka Elections 2023: Congress Announces First List of 124 CandidatesThe Muniyappa FactorIn Kolar, according to sources, the Congress’ rival is its own leader KH Muniyappa. Muniyappa, a Madiga (Left Dalit) leader who commands respect in the constituency, lost Lok Sabha elections from Kolar in 2019. The reason for this is believed to be Srinivasapura Congress MLA KR Ramesh Kumar.“Ramesh Kumar actively campaigned against Muniyappa in 2019 and that led to his defeat,” a senior Congress leader said, on the condition of anonymity. Following his defeat, Muniyappa lodged a complaint against Kumar, accusing him of 'anti-party activities,' with All India Congress Committee.Even in the recent past, Muniyappa reminded AICC of this complaint and even cautioned Siddaramaiah not to trust Kumar. Kumar has been a close associate of Siddaramaiah, despite his rivalry with Muniyappa.“In Kolar, the issue is that Muniyappa has his hold among the Left Dalits (Madigas) and he can upset the Congress' applecart. This makes Siddaramaiah’s decision to contest in Kolar unsettling for the party,” a Congress leader said. Besides, an internal survey done by the Congress has predicted that Siddaramaiah may not win this seat, the leader revealed.Will Kolar be a gamble? Siddaramaiah may lose due to factional fight within the Congress. But as a test for Ahinda, from the Congress' perspective, the leader’s decision to contest in Kolar does make it a gamble worth taking. After all, the Kolar experiment does not take away from Siddaramaiah’s prospects in Varuna.On Rahul Gandhi's Bid, Siddaramaiah To Fight From Varuna; Son May Get MP Ticket

BECOME A MEMBER

Testing 'Ahinda': Why Siddaramaiah Contesting in Kolar May Help Congress

Siddaramaiah insists that he should contest from Kolar other than Varuna in Karnataka Assembly elections 2023. Why?

Read Latest News and Breaking News at The Quint, browse for more from elections and karnataka-election

Topics: Rahul Gandhi Siddaramaiah Kolar