Were Exit Polls Correct on Himachal Assembly Election Results in 2017 & 2012?

How accurate were the exit polls by different pollsters and news channels in previous Himachal Pradesh elections?


The final results of the Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections 2022 will only come on Counting Day, 8 December, but different pollsters and news channels have released their exit poll results today as the final phase of voting ended in Gujarat.

Exit polls are usually seen as an indicator of polling trends. Sometimes, they are proven to be in sync with the final results, but on other occasions, they have ended up being inaccurate. So, how accurate have the exit polls been in the last couple of Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections?


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Did Exit Polls Get It Right in 2017?

Yes, they did (mostly)!

All the pollsters mentioned above got the overall results right. CVoter and CNX were pretty spot on with seat counts too.

Chanakya, Axis MyIndia and VNR all overestimated the BJP tally, and were off the mark on the BJP by over 6-14 seats.

CSDS overestimated the Congress' performance, while Chanakya and VMR predicted fewer seats than what the Congress ended up winning.


Did Exit Polls Get It Right in 2012?

Umm, two of the exit polls didn't quite pick a winner!

CNN-IBN and CVoter gave both parties a range that stretched on either side of the majority mark of 35. These two exit polls, therefore, did not really predict a winner.

Chanakya got the overall result correct, but their seat estimates gave 3 seats fewer for the BJP than what the party ended up winning.

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