Now That Gujarat & Himachal Results Are Out, How Accurate Were the Exit Polls?

The exit polls announced their estimates and made their predictions on 5 December, and three days later, we now have the results of the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections.So, how accurate were the exit polls? Did they get it right this time around?(The interactive will load below. Please wait for a few seconds if it hasn't loaded yet on your screen.)Did the exit polls get it right? Well, yes and no. The polls did predict a BJP victory correctly, but most of the estimates for the BJP predicted fewer seats than what the party eventually ended up winning.Axis MyIndia and PMARQ were close to the BJP's mark of over 150. Apart from Axis MyIndia, all the pollsters mentioned overestimated the Congress' seat tally.Jan Ki Baat, CVoter and PMARQ were close to AAP's actual vote share on Counting Day, but ETG had massively overestimated AAP's vote share, giving it close to double of what they eventually got.(The interactive will load below. Please wait for a few seconds if it hasn't loaded yet on your screen.)No. The polls could not predict the Congress victory correctly.The polls mostly overestimated the BJP. Axis MyIndia was the closest to the BJP's actual tally, having predicted a range from 24 to 34.The exit polls were mostly undecided, but the results on Counting Day were more decisively in favour of the Congress.(The interactive will load below. Please wait for a few seconds if it hasn't loaded yet on your screen.)2017: Axis MyIndia was pretty spot on. Jan Ki Baat, CSDS and CNX all overestimated the BJP tally, and were off the mark on the BJP by over 10 seats.However, the estimates of several pollsters for the Congress were close to the actual figures on Counting Day.2012: CVoter was close to bull's eye. ORG was quite on the mark as well. Chanakya overestimated the BJP's performance.However, the estimates of several pollsters for the Congress were close to the actual figures on Counting Day.(The interactive will load below. Please wait for a few seconds if it hasn't loaded yet on your screen.)2017: All the pollsters mentioned above got the overall results right. CVoter and CNX were pretty spot on with seat counts too.Chanakya, Axis MyIndia and VNR all overestimated the BJP tally, and were off the mark on the BJP by over 6-14 seats.CSDS overestimated the Congress' performance, while Chanakya and VMR predicted fewer seats than what the Congress ended up winning.2012: CNN-IBN and CVoter gave both parties a range that stretched on either side of the majority mark of 35. These two exit polls, therefore, did not really predict a winner.Chanakya got the overall result correct, but their seat estimates gave 3 seats fewer for the BJP than what the party ended up winning.

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Now That Gujarat & Himachal Results Are Out, How Accurate Were the Exit Polls?

The exit polls were mostly off the mark this time.

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Topics: Gujarat elections 2022