While the Delhi Assembly elections seem to be boiling down to a contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the stakes in the Okhla and Mustafabad constituencies are very different. Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has fielded Shifa-ur-Rehman and Tahir Hussain, respectively, from these seats - both of them being in jail under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act.
Why is This Important?
The anti-CAA protest was a landmark in Muslim politics in India - it was the biggest, nationwide mobilisation by Indian Muslims in decades. Shifa-ur-Rehman played a key role in the protests that took place in Jamia Millia Islamia and Shaheen Bagh. He is one of the first activists from the Muslim strand of the anti-CAA protest to enter electoral politics. This is not counting career politicians who had participated in the anti-CAA protests.
So far the anti-CAA activists who entered politics were mainly from Assam, such as Akhil Gogoi, Lurinjyoti Gogoi and Pranab Doley. (Read more about them in this piece)
Rehman's campaign also represents the first time the release of Muslim political prisoners has become a key election plank.
The Difference Between Tahir Hussain and Shifa-ur-Rehman
Tahir Hussain, the other AIMIM candidate in the Delhi election, is also jailed under UAPA but he is a career politician and has been a municipal councillor of the Aam Aadmi Party. Though Hussain and Rehman are both arrested in connection with the 2020 Northeast Delhi riots, there is a difference between the two - besides UAPA, Hussain is also an accused in the murder of Intelligence Bureau officer Ankit Sharma during the riots. On the other hand, the case against Rehman is purely to do with his activism. This is not a comment on their culpability or the lack of it, it is just to highlight the difference in the allegations against them.
The AIMIM's narrative is that both are victims of an allegedly fabricated case by the Centre and that both were also thrown under the bus by the AAP.
What Are Their Prospects?
In the last two Assembly elections, Delhi's Muslims have voted almost entirely for the AAP as an attempt to defeat the BJP. The prospects of Rehman and Hussain, and also of Congress' candidates in Muslim concentration seats, would depend on the extent to which Muslim voters want to punish AAP as opposed to keeping the BJP at bay.
Among sections of Muslims, AAP is being accused of betraying the anti-CAA movement - Kejriwal had said that AAP would have removed the Shaheen Bagh protest if it had control over the police. There is also resentment due to the manner in which it was seen hounding the Talbighi Jamaat during the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are four elections which are relevant in this context.
1. 1993 Delhi Assembly Election
The 1993 election was the first Assembly election in Delhi since 1952 but for the Muslim community it was significant for another reason as well - it took place less than a year after the demolition of the Babri Masjid.
There was considerable resentment among Muslims towards the Congress across many Hindi states and Delhi wasn't an exception in this regard.
In the 1993 election, the Janata Dal defeated the Congress in a number of Muslim-concentration seats in Delhi, such as Matia Mahal, Seelampur and Okhla.
2. Batla House Encounter and 2 Elections that Followed
The 2008 Assembly elections in Delhi took place barely a couple of months after the infamous Batla House encounter, that many believe to have been fake. The encounter sparked widespread protests in the area. While the Congress won that election by a narrow margin, its vote share reduced by half compared to the 2003 election.
Then a year later, MLA Parvez Hashmi was sent to the Rajya Sabha, necessitating a bypoll. The Congress lost the bypoll to the RJD's Asif Muhammad Khan. The anger due to the Batla House Encounter was one of the main reasons for the Congress being pushed to third position in that election
3. 2022 MCD Election
In the 2022 MCD elections, there was a clear move away from AAP among the Muslims of Northeast Delhi. The party performed poorly in a number of wards where Muslims are present in sizable numbers, such as Brijpuri, Mustafabad, Nehru Vihar, Chauhan Bangar, Seelampur and Kabir Nagar.
This was mainly due to the perception that AAP remained inactive during the 2020 Northeast Delhi riots. AAP also faced some reverses in the Okhla area, losing Abul Fazal Enclave and Zakir Nagar wards to the Congress.
In contrast, AAP did very well in the Muslim pockets in the Old City, an area that it is hoping to dominate in this election as well.
4. 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections saw the win of two Independent candidates who also happen to be political prisoners, detained under draconian anti-terror laws.
Sikh preacher Amritpal Singh, arrested under the National Security Act and now under the UAPA as well, won by nearly 2 lakh votes from Punjab's Khadoor Sahib constituency, a stronghold of Panthic politics.
Engineer Rashid, jailed under the PSA, won from the Baramulla seat in Jammu and Kashmir, defeating senior NC leader and now CM Omar Abdullah.
Amritpal in particular is an important case study for Rehman's campaign as he too is an activist and completely new to politics.
Can They Win?
Now, in terms of resources the two AIMIM candidates are finding it difficult to compete with the AAP, BJP and Congress. Shifa-ur-Rehman is an activist and his family has had to crowdfund the campaign. Tahir Hussain was once one of the richest businessmen in the area but most of his accounts have been frozen by the government so even his family is facing a major resource crunch. In the end, the two candidates' prospects depend on the degree to which their emotional appeal resonates with Muslim voters.
The 1993 Assembly election and 2008 and 2009 Okhla elections show that Delhi's Muslims have voted to punish the Congress on the issue of communalism and human rights. The 2022 MCD election showed that even AAP can be punished in a similar manner. What's also working in favour of the two candidates is that it's not just about ideological issues, there is also a significant degree of resentment against AAP in both seats due to civic problems as well.
However, the situation in the Mustafabad and Okhla seats is different from each other. The Muslim population in Okhla is estimated to be about 53 percent and BJP has never crossed 30 percent votes in the seat. The degree of communal polarisation is lower and BJP hasn't quite succeeded in consolidating Hindu votes. While the BJP does well among Gujjars, many Dalits and poorer migrants vote for AAP.
So even if there is a two way split in Muslim votes, the BJP may still find it difficult to win the seat.
The case of Mustafabad is different. The BJP is a strong contender in the seat. In fact, the party had won the seat amid an AAP wave in 2015, mainly due to a vote split between AAP and Congress.
The Muslim population in Mustafabad is 40 percent, sizably lower than Okhla. The degree of communal polarisation is much higher and it was the area most affected by the 2020 violence. The vote differentiation between dominant castes and Dalits, and between migrant and non-migrant Hindus is also much lesser.
If there is a vote split between even two of the three Muslim candidates - AAP's Adeel Ahmed Khan, Congress' Ali Mehdi and AIMIM's Tahir Hussain, then BJP may have a good chance of winning the seat.
One factor that AIMIM is counting on in Mustafabad is that Hussain is from the Saifi community that is present in sizable numbers in the seat. The AAP candidate Adeel Ahmed Khan is also not as well known as his counterpart in Okhla, Amanatullah Khan, who is now an established leader in the area.
A key factor that not just the two AIMIM candidates but also Congress candidates in Muslim pockets would have to contend with is the apprehension within Muslim voters that if the BJP comes to power at the state level, matters may become worse for the community in terms of civic neglect as well as weaponisation of tools such as bulldozers.
If this sentiment gains salience, then there may be a consolidation in favour of AAP.