gArvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is facing a defeat in Delhi Assembly elections 2025 while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to win 45-55 of the total 70 seats, if exit polls conducted by Axis My India are to be believed.
Assembly elections were held in Delhi on Wednesday, 5 February, and a voter turnout of 60.42 percent was recorded as updated till 11:30pm, the Election Commission stated in a press note.
While the Kejriwal-led AAP is eyeing a third term in the capital city, the BJP is striving to make a comeback after 27 years. A clutch of exit polls released on Wednesday evening predicted a BJP victory and an exit for AAP from Delhi's Vidhan Sabha.
However Axis My India and Cvoter, known to be among leading polling agencies, released the findings of their survey a day after the elections and not on the polling day as has been the longstanding practice.
Axis My India has predicted 48 percent of votes polled in favour of the BJP, followed by 42 percent polled for AAP, 7 percent polled for the Congress and the remaining going to other parties.
Although both the polling agencies have predicted a largely bipolar contest between the AAP and the BJP, with the Congress staring at a wipe-out from Delhi, The Quint looks at the detailed findings from these surveys to identify which section — women, students, middle income groups, Muslims and Dalits — preferred which political party in these elections and why:
Who Did Delhi's Women Choose?
In the run-up to the elections, Delhi's women saw political parties compete for their vote with promises of direct cash transfer and several welfare schemes being thrown their way.
While the AAP announced plans to increase monthly financial assistance to eligible women from Rs 1,000 to Rs 2,100 if it comes to power, the BJP raced and upped this amount to Rs 2,500. The BJP also promised a financial assistance of Rs 21,000 for pregnant woman, LPG cylinders to be provided at Rs 500, 33% reservation for women in government jobs, among other schemes. The Congress matched this and also promised a sum of Rs 1.1 lakh for the marriage of disadvantaged widows, their daughters, and orphan girls. But did any of these freebies appeal to the women of Delhi?
According to Cvoter exit polls, 50.7 percent women have favoured AAP, 34.3 percent women have preferred BJP and 6.8 percent voted for Congress.
Meanwhile, Axis My India has estimated 46 percent women favouring BJP, while 44 percent preferring AAP.
What About the Middle Income Group?
The Vidhan Sabha elections in Delhi came days after the Union Budget on 1 February pacified a struggling middle-income group by announcing a complete tax rebate for an income up to Rs 12 lakh per annum. This effectively means that an individual earning up to Rs 12.75 lakh (including Rs 75,000 standard deduction) will have to pay nil income tax.
Did this tip the scales in BJP's favour?
According to Cvoter exit poll, 49.5 percent of those earning a monthly income between Rs 20,000 and Rs 50,000 have favoured the BJP. Again, 54.9 percent of the people earning a monthly income between Rs 50,000 and Rs 1,00,000 have favoured the BJP. Similarly, 61.1 percent of a more affluent section, earning a monthly income of over Rs 1 lakh, has favoured the BJP.
By contrast, 48.8 percent of those earning Rs 10,000-20,000 per month have favoured the Aam Aadmi Party. Similarly, 47.2 percent of those earning Rs 6,000-Rs 10,000 have preferred AAP, an indication that the free electricity (up to 200 units per month) and free water (up to 20,000 litres) per month of the incumbent AAP government still strikes a chord among the Delhi's voters.
Meanwhile, there seems to be a split among the lower income groups.
47.8 percent of those earning less than Rs 3,000 per month have favoured AAP, while 44.3% of those earning a monthly income between Rs 3,000 and Rs 6,000 have favoured the BJP.
Muslims, Dalits Prefer AAP Over BJP
According to Axis My India exit poll, 74 percent of Delhi's Muslims favoured AAP over the BJP. At the same time, 63 percent Jats preferred the BJP. Meanwhile, Scheduled Caste communities have also favoured AAP over the BJP.
At the same time, Cvoter exit poll estimated 63.1 percent of Delhi's Muslims and 46.9 percent of the capital city's Dalit community favouring AAP over the BJP.
By contrast, it estimated that 59.3 percent of Upper Class Hindus preferring the BJP over AAP. 49.3 percent of those belonging to Other Backward Classes (OBCs) also favoured BJP over AAP.
In its election manifesto, the BJP had promised several welfare schemes for SC communities — including a monthly stipend of Rs 1,000 to Dalit students, doubling the number of scholarships, and financial assistance to Dalit entrepreneurs. AAP too has proposed to cover all educational expenses for Dalit students.
Meanwhile, 49.1 percent of Sikhs in Delhi favoured AAP, as per Cvoter exit poll findings.
While AAP has promised to give Rs 18,000 per month to all temple priests and Gurudwara granthis, BJP proposed an honorarium of Rs 20,000 to granthis and an investment of Rs 100 crore to better Gurudwara infrastructure in Delhi.
Most Delhiites Want Kejriwal to be Chief Minister
According to Axis My India exit poll, 33 percent of voters prefer AAP National Convener Arvind Kejriwal to be the next chief minister. The next favoured candidate for the CM post was BJP's Parvesh Verma (13%) and Manoj Tiwari (12%).
At the same time, Cvoter projected that 39.5 percent of Delhi prefers Kejriwal as their chief minister, followed by Manoj Tiwari (19.7%).
Another trend that Cvoter has pointed is that while the youth, including first time voters (in the 18-22 age group), have predominantly voted for AAP, the older population have, including senior citizens, have favoured the BJP.
Again, AAP was a popular choice among housewives (51.5%) and general labour (51.8%), whereas those engaged in self employment (51.9%) and government services (56%) primarily voted for the BJP.
The Cvoter exit poll also shed light on why voters picked the political parties they did. The top three reasons for those who picked AAP were:
Mohalla clinics and free medicines
Free electricity
Better schools
Meanwhile, the top three reasons to vote for BJP were:
Narendra Modi's leadership
Alleged liquor scam and 'Sheeshmahal' controversy
Poor state of drinking water supply
Responding to the projections of the exit polls, Kejriwal labelled them as "fake surveys conducted to create an atmosphere to defect candidates." He wrote on X:
Results to the Assembly elections held in Delhi will be declared by the Election Commission on Saturday, 8 February.
Tune in to The Quint for live coverage and detailed analyses of the Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 Results.