The Congress has filed a complaint with the Election Commission against a poster released by the Aam Aadmi Party including Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi in a list of "dishonest politicians". The poster has pushed the Congress to close ranks and attack AAP. Till now, the party was torn between two different strategies for the Delhi elections being pushed by different sections within its ranks.
What are the two approaches advocated within Congress for the Delhi elections?
How has this played out in the campaign?
Realistically, what are the Congress' prospects in the Delhi elections?
We will try and answer these two questions in this piece.
Congress' Dilemma
There were two viewpoints within the Congress on what the party's strategy should be in the Delhi elections.
The first view is that the Congress can revive in Delhi only if AAP is finished once and for all. AAP's growth between its first election in 2013, in which it won 28 seats, to its 67 out of 70 seat sweep in 2015, was mainly due to its capture of the entire Congress' vote.
While the BJP's vote share stayed where it was in this period, the Congress' vote share collapsed by 15 percentage points to under 10 percent. AAP succeeded in capturing the Congress' core base of Dalits, Muslims, Purvanchali and urban poor voters.
The section in the Congress advocating a strong anti-AAP stance say that if AAP loses and BJP wins Delhi, Congress may be able to win back its traditional voters and replace AAP in the long run.
Among the leaders most vociferous in pushing this position are Delhi Congress chief Devender Yadav and former MP Sandeep Dikshit. Dikshit is contesting against CM Arvind Kejriwal from the New Delhi constituency and has given a number of interviews targeting the AAP convenor.
For Yadav, there is another aspect to this. He also happens to be the Congress' in-charge for Punjab, where AAP is in power and Congress is the main Opposition party. Yadav's calculation is that if AAP loses Delhi, it will weaken its chances of coming back to power in Punjab in 2027.
However, a section of the party's central leadership are of the view that defeating the BJP is also important from the point of view of national politics. This section says that it is especially important following the Opposition's defeats in Maharashtra and Haryana.
There is also pressure from Congress' allies like RJD and Samajwadi Party, who are known to be sympathetic to AAP as they feel that a BJP win in Delhi would strengthen the perception of Modi's invincibility.
How Has This Played Out in the Campaign?
Congress has tried to strike a balance between the two approaches during the campaign. The Delhi leadership has been given more or less a free hand on matters of ticket selection and campaign narrative. In many seats, AAP has accused the Congress of fielding candidates to ensure their defeat and help the BJP. The Congress, however, says it has chosen the best available candidates in each seat and that it's not he party's problem if AAP gets harmed because of it.
However, there other side of this approach is that the central leadership - be it Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi or Priyanka Gandhi haven't been utilised to the extent they could have.
This is being seen both as an attempt to maintain the balance within the Opposition at the national level as well as to shield the central leadership from blame in case the results are not satisfactory.
Realistically, What Are the Congress' Prospects?
So far ground reports suggest that while the Congress has gained some attention for its issue-based targeting of AAP, the party hasn't quite succeeded in winning back its traditional voters such as Dalits and minorities.
The Congress' prospects have now become too dependent on the dynamics in particular constituencies. In some seats, such as Kasturba Nagar (candidate Abhishek Dutt) and Badli (candidate Devender Yadav), personal popularity of individual candidates has placed the Congress in the reckoning. Then in some seats, such as Bijwasan, the Congress candidate gained some traction due to negative sentiments against both the BJP and AAP candidates, though it may not be in a winnable position.
In Muslim concentration constituencies, the Congress was counting on the vote of Muslim voters dissatisfied with AAP due to its silence during the 2020 Northeast Delhi violence and is stand against Tablighi Jamaat during the first COVID-19 wave.
In Mustafabad in particular, Congress candidate Ali Mehdi has a decent local connect. In Okhla, however, and to some extent also Mustafabad, Congress' attempts to tap the anti-AAP Muslim voters, are being harmed by the entry of AIMIM. The Asaduddin Owaisi-led party has fielded UAPA detainees Shifa-ur-Rehman and Tahir Hussain in these seats respectively.
The anti-AAP sentiment among Muslims is much weaker in Old Delhi where AAP is perceived as having done good work and the Congress may find it comparatively tougher here.
In the, the best possible result for the Congress would be if it manages to win a couple of seats and saves its deposits in over 20 constituencies.