C-Voter: UPA To Fall Just Short in Assam; Majority for TMC in WB
The BJP is expected to win around 112 seats in Bengal, a massive jump from the 3 seats it won in 2016.
The C-Voter snap poll released on Wednesday, 24 March, just days ahead of the Assembly elections scheduled in West Bengal projected a narrow victory for Mamata Banerjee, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) barely crossing the majority mark of 147.
Meanwhile, Sarbanada Sonowal remains the most preferred chief minister of Assam.
From effect of Mamata Banerjee’s injury on West Bengal polls to repercussions of BJP’s silence on CAA in Assam, here are some key findings of the poll.
WB: TMC to Cross Majority
- The TMC might have a narrow win with expected loss of approximately 50 seats. The tally is expected to fall from 211 in 2016 to 160 in 2021.
- Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to win around 112 seats, a massive jump from the 3 seats it won in 2016. The Congress-Left alliance is expected to lose massively, falling from 76 seats in 2016 to 22 seats in 2021.
- While the TMC is expected to win 152-168 seats, the BJP might win 104 to 120 seats, making it a clear battle between the two parties.
Mamata Banerjee Most Preferred CM
- 54.9% respondents feel that TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is the most preferable candidate for Chief Minister of the state while 32.3% respondents think it is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s Dilip Ghosh.
- 44.6% respondents feel that Trinamool Congress will win the elections. 36.9% feel it will be the BJP.
- 43.2% of the respondents are angry with the state government led by Mamata Banerjee and want to change it, while 42% of the respondents are angry but do not want to change the government.
- While there will be a slight dent of -2.8 percentage points in TMC’s vote share which will fall from 44.9% in 2016 to 42.1% in 2021, the BJP is expected to massively raise its vote share from 10.2% in 2016 to 37.4% in 2021.
What Voters Feel: Was Mamata’s Injury Due to Conspiracy? Will Cong-Left-ISF Help BJP?
A snap-poll conducted by C-Voter with a sample-size of 2,290 in West Bengal threw up the following results.
Do you believe Mamata Banerjee’s claim that her injury was an outcome of a deep conspiracy or do you think that it was just a drama just to gain sympathy?
As per the C-Voter snap poll, 40.8% respondents believe that there was deep conspiracy while 36.6% have dubbed it drama to invoke sympathy. 22.2% can’t say.
Will the AIMIM and the Congress-Left-ISF alliance indirectly help the BJP by splitting Muslim votes?
As per C-Voter, 39.3% respondents believe that the AIMIM and Congress-Left-ISF alliance will indirectly help the BJP, while 34.7% disagree and 26.1% can’t say.
Assam: A Potential Close Call
Assam could possibly be a photo finish, although the expected loss for NDA is only of five seats. The tally for NDA is expected to fall from 74 in 2016 to 69 in 2021, which is only five seats more than the majority mark.
UPA however may see a significant increase of 17 seats, going from 39 in 2016 to 56 in 2021.
While the NDA is expected to win 65-73 seats, the UPA might win 52 to 60 seats.
Sonowal Most Preferred CM
- 46.2% respondents feel that BJP’s Sarbananda Sonawal is the most preferable candidate for Chief Minister of the state. 25.2% feel it is Indian National Congress (INC)’s Gaurav Gogoi.
- 51.1% respondents feel that BJP + AGP (Asom Gana Parisad) is most likely to win the election. 28.9% feel it is BPF.
- 41% of the respondents are angry with the state government led by Sarbananda Sonawal and want to change it, while 40.2% of the respondents are angry but do not want to change the government.
- The vote percentage for NDA is expected to increase by 3.1 percentage points, going from 41.9% in 2016 to 45% in 2021. The vote percentage for UPA is expected to see a more significant increase of 10.1 percentage points, going from 31% in 2016 to 41.1% in 2021.
What Voters Feel: Will BJP’s Silence Over CAA Help The Party?
The snap poll conducted in Assam (sample size: 1,117) shed light on the following questions.
Will the BJP’s relative silence on CAA in Assam help it or hurt its prospects?
As per C-Voter, 44.6% respondents feel that BJP's silence on this issue will increase its winning chances, while 25.2% feel that it will hurt BJP’s prospects. Meanwhile 15.8% feel that BJP’s silence will have no impact and 14.4% can’t say.
Do you think CAA is a threat to indigenous Assamese language and culture?
As per 50.9% respondents, CAA is a threat to indigenous Assamese language and culture, while 31.2% disagree and 17.9% can’t say.
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