With the 2019 Lok Sabha elections reaching their climax, a Brokerage firm called Ambit has offered its predictions for the results, saying that the seat share of the BJP in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh may halve from 73 in 2014 to 30-35.
Nationally, the Ambit report predicts the BJP to win 190-210 seats in a base case scenario, with saffron party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) predicted to get 220-240 seats. This might necessitate a post-poll alliance by the NDA with "at least four large regional" parties so as to ensure government formation.
This would mean that while a BJP-led alliance could form next the government, the saffron party would have to depend on the smaller parties, the report indicates.
Ambit's predictions are based upon meetings with politicians, small businesses and academicians in Uttar Pradesh's Gorakhpur, which it then uses for projections at the national level.