BJP to Get 30-35 Seats in UP, 190-210 Nationally: Brokerage Firm

The report also notes a trend of low popularity for UP CM Yogi Adityanath.

2 min read
BJP to Get 30-35 Seats in UP, 190-210 Nationally: Brokerage Firm

With the 2019 Lok Sabha elections reaching their climax, a Brokerage firm called Ambit has offered its predictions for the results, saying that the seat share of the BJP in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh may halve from 73 in 2014 to 30-35.

Nationally, the Ambit report predicts the BJP to win 190-210 seats in a base case scenario, with saffron party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) predicted to get 220-240 seats. This might necessitate a post-poll alliance by the NDA with "at least four large regional" parties so as to ensure government formation.

This would mean that while a BJP-led alliance could form next the government, the saffron party would have to depend on the smaller parties, the report indicates.

Ambit's predictions are based upon meetings with politicians, small businesses and academicians in Uttar Pradesh's Gorakhpur, which it then uses for projections at the national level.


Factors Cited for Losses in UP

According to the report, a predicted setback for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh could be the ebbing of the 'Modi wave' and an increase in the SP-BSP combined vote-share as compared to the previous elections. The firm projects the SP-BSP vote share to be 45 percent and BJP's share to be 34.2 percent.

The respective vote-shares are calculated on the basis of giving two-third weightage to the results (vote-share) in 2014 and one-third to the results in 2009.

The report also notes a trend of low popularity for UP CM Yogi Adityanath. One of the issues that has created this trend is distress among owners of slaughterhouses after the ban on cow slaughter, it says.

Nevertheless, a consolidation of the Hindu vote has taken place possibly due to factors such as the cow slaughter ban as well as the exercise of re-naming cities that took place lately, the report notes.

Another interesting observation that the Ambit report makes, citing party workers on the ground, is the possibility of the BSP joining the BJP after the election results are out.

It also notes that BJP candidates and workers are mostly targeting Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (and not the BSP).

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