Nearly half of Uttar Pradesh – 39 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats to be precise – has already voted. In 2014, the BJP won 35 of these seats and Samajwadi Party won four. Both the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress failed to win even one of these 39 constituencies.
According to conservative estimates, this time the BJP could be down by around 15 seats in the first four phases alone. However, many other analysts say that the party could lose over 20 of the 35 seats that it had won in the first four phases.
The bad news for the National Democratic Alliance is that the subsequent phases might actually be worse for it. But first, a counter-argument.
The counter-argument is that the areas that voted in the last three phases of polling are largely in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Awadh, where the Muslim-Yadav-Jatav-Jat social combination of the Mahagathbandhan isn’t as dominant. It is also argued that the Congress has a greater potential to spoil the Mahagathbandhan’s chances in Awadh.
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