One day after being defeated in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress-JD(S) coalition was seen putting on a brave face. They managed to win only two Parliamentary seats put together: JD(S) bastion Hassan and Congress stronghold of Bengaluru Rural, while the BJP scooped up the remaining 25.
After an informal cabinet meeting to discuss the impact of the Lok Sabha results on Friday, 24 May, CM HD Kumaraswamy and his deputy, G Parameshwara said that the coalition government would remain intact and Kumaraswamy would continue to serve as CM. He later tweeted:
Soon after a joint meeting of Congress and JD(S) legislature party workers, Kumaraswamy met with Congress Legislature Party leader Siddaramaiah in another show of support with their coalition partner.
With strong numbers at the centre and the state, the BJP claims their mandate has been received overwhelmingly by the people, putting them in a position to call the shots.
Soon after his party emerged victorious with a majority on 23 May, state president BS Yeddyurappa told press persons that they would wait for the coalition to make a decision before deciding their next course of action. The BJP is confident of controlling the narrative but for now, are playing the waiting game.
Sources in the Congress also revealed that a faction led by Siddaramaiah, would prefer to bide their time playing the role of Opposition, before consolidating power the next time elections come around.
With no party ready to make the first move, it is a game of waiting and watching in Karnataka.
Options Before the BJP
According to sources, the BJP high command is taking advantage of the LS polls result to strategise on a long-term plan for the state. Having made unprecedented inroads with a vote share of over 51%, they are measuring steps to establish themselves firmly in the state.
The big question before them is, whether or not to retain BS Yeddyurappa.
While one part of the state BJP, the RSS faction is keen on installing a younger, more dynamic leader to breathe life into the cadre, Yeddyurappa’s gang is keen to see the veteran as CM.
“The party is in a strong position at the state and the centre. The party is considering an alternative to Yeddyurappa. The question is whether to keep him as CM or groom a younger politician.”Party insider.
If the BJP’s plan to wait and watch fails, necessitating a fresh election in the state, it is then that Yeddyurappa becomes crucial. The BJP needs the mass support and cadre loyalty he commands in order to ensure a win in Assembly polls.
But as of now, they are waiting to see how the coalition will behave in the new dynamic that has emerged in Karnataka.
Congress Plans to Sit in the Opposition
According to party insiders, the Congress would be more than happy if the JD(S) were to break up the alliance to lend their support to the BJP. Rather than walking away themselves, they are laying the onus on the JD(S) to make the first move.
This strategy is said to be part of Siddaramaiah’s plan to energise the party by playing the role of Opposition, in time for the next elections.
Meanwhile, it must take the time to work out the discordant sections of the party who have spoken up against the leadership. Recent comments made by Bengaluru MLA Roshan Baig have embarrassed the party, revealing the cracks within and raising doubts over the Congress’ hold over its MLAs.
Operation Kamala 2.0?
Baig, MLA from Muslim-dominated Shivajinagar, had said that he would join the BJP if the need arose, if nothing but to protect the interests of the minorities who he represented.
Newly elected MP from Kolar Muniswamy, in a statement to a Kannada news channel, also said that he would ‘gift’ 5-6 MLAs to BJP if it means Yeddyurappa becoming CM.
After winning the Chincholi bypoll, the BJP now has 105 MLAs to its name, needing only 8 more to touch the magic figure of 113. Yeddyurappa on 10 May had said that 20 Congress and JD(S) MLAs have approached him and expressed an intention to join the BJP.
With all the power in their hand, the BJP is waiting to see where the dice falls. While the Congress-JD(S) have vowed to stay in power together, it remains to be seen what the next few days will bring.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)