Andhra Pradesh Assembly & Lok Sabha Elections: Welfarism, Capital Row, and Caste Dynamics Are Deciding Factors

After a high-octane campaign between the ruling YSR Congress Party and the Opposition alliance comprising the Telugu Desam Party, Jana Sena Party, and Bharatiya Janata Party, 175 Assembly and 25 Lok Sabha constituencies in Andhra Pradesh are voting today, 13 May. Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP – formed after the death of his father and former chief minister of Andhra Pradesh YS Rajasekhara Reddy (YSR) – has much at stake this election. The party came to power in 2019 with an overwhelming majority, defeating Chandrababu Naidu's TDP in the backdrop of the state's demand for Special Category Status. The YSRCP won 151 of the 175 Assembly seats and 22 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. The TDP was reduced to 23 Assembly seats and 3 Lok Sabha seats. However, the YSRCP – by and large a welfarist government – is facing anti-incumbency over key issues ranging from unemployment to Jagan's capital-change proposal. The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance, meanwhile, is hoping for a revival in the state. The TDP was presumed to be decimated for good in the previous polls, but Naidu's arrest in the skill development case in 2023 and Pawan Kalyan-led JSP's subsequent support for the party have helped change perceptions.The BJP – initially reluctant to join the alliance owing to friction with Naidu – is virtually a non-entity in Andhra Pradesh. While Naidu hopes to secure his political career by rejoining the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the BJP is desperate to make its presence felt in South India, especially amidst resistance from states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and even 'saffron bastion' Karnataka. Let's take a closer look at the political equations, regional and caste dynamics, key constituencies, and poll issues in Andhra Pradesh.Can YS Sharmila-Led Congress Impact Andhra Pradesh's Electoral Outcome? Yes & NoAndhra Pradesh is a state where regional parties are dominating the fray. The national parties, Congress and BJP, polled less than NOTA in the 2019 elections. Historically, the Congress has had a stronghold over Andhra Pradesh, but YSR's death and the subsequent bifurcation of the state in 2014 did not go down well for the party. This time, however, the Congress is hoping to make some gains by roping in YS Sharmila, Jagan's sister, as the party's chief. Invoking the 'YSR sentiment', Sharmila is contesting from the Kadapa Lok Sabha seat, the home constituency of the YSR family, and is facing her cousin and YSRCP candidate Avinash Reddy, who is an accused in the murder of YSR's younger brother YS Vivekananda Reddy.Vivekananda Reddy, then the Kadapa MP, was brutally hacked with an axe in March 2019, ahead of the elections that year. This year too, the murder has become an emotive poll issue and may play spoilsport for the YSRCP.Moreover, Jagan is contesting from the Pulivendula Assembly seat, which is one of the seven constituencies that make up the Kadapa Lok Sabha segment.In the battle between the brother-sister duo, their mother YS Vijayamma has expressed support for her daughter. Vijayamma recently said: "I request all of you in Kadapa who have loved and respected my husband YSR to throw their support behind his daughter Sharmila so that she is given a chance to represent your interests and serve you as a Parliamentarian."as per The News MinuteWhile it may be difficult for Sharmila and the Congress to make significant electoral gains, political experts say she may capture some of the anti-YSRCP votes, in turn hurting the prospects of the Opposition alliance. Video of Andhra Pradesh Minister Shared With False Claims Linked to ChhattisgarhAndhra Pradesh's 'aversion' towards national parties after the bifurcation is true in the case of the BJP as well. The BJP has never had much presence in the state except in the form of alliances with the TDP.In fact, the party has only won Lok Sabha seats in the state when it was in alliance with the TDP.In 1999, it won seven seats in alliance with the TDPIn 2004 and 2009, the party was not in alliance with the TDP and won no seatsIn 2014, it won two seats in alliance with the TDPAfter Naidu exited the NDA in 2018, the BJP won no seats in 2019 and polled less than NOTAThis time, the BJP is contesting from six Lok Sabha seats and 10 Assembly seats. Though the TDP is hoping to consolidate anti-YSRCP votes by joining hands with the BJP, it is unsure whether the traditional TDP vote base would actually vote for the BJP in the constituencies it is contesting from.The primary concern for the TDP is the BJP's anti-minority rhetoric. Andhra Pradesh has a 10 percent Muslim population and a 2 percent Christian population. The YSRCP already enjoys considerable support from the minorities owing to Jagan's welfare schemes as well as his Christian identity. Therefore, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been making speeches against minorities in North India, Naidu, in his poll speeches, has batted for Muslim reservation in Andhra Pradesh.'It's Been Many Years Since...': Why Chiranjeevi Endorsed NDA in Andhra PradeshWhile the YSRCP is associated with the Reddy community, the TDP is a Kamma-dominated party – though numerically speaking, both castes only make up 10 percent of the population. As far as caste politics is concerned, a significant third player in Andhra Pradesh is the Kapu community, which accounts for over 15 percent, with most residing in the East and West Godavari districts and the northern Andhra region. In the 2014 elections, votes in Kapu-dominated regions primarily went to the TDP. This, however, shifted in 2019 when Jagan's YSRCP made significant gains in the East and West Godavari regions. Kapu votes are likely to define the elections this time too.The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance is vying for the Kapu votes – in addition to TDP's traditional vote base Kammas – through actor Pawan Kalyan, who belongs to the community. It has been the Kapus' political desire to have a CM from the community, a dream that has remained elusive amidst the Reddy and Kamma dominance in Andhra Pradesh politics.Kapus are largely a dominant caste in the state but some sections belong to the OBC category. The dominant Kapus have been fighting for BC reservation, seeking more opportunities in education and employment, which Naidu had promised in ahead of the 2014 elections. When he was chief minister, he had given 5 percent reservation to the dominant caste under the EWS quota, which the subsequent Jagan government scrapped, stating that the basis of the EWS reservation scheme was poverty and not caste. Jagan, however, had introduced other welfare schemes exclusively for Kapus, in hopes of wooing the community. TDP-Jana Sena Alliance: Decoding the Changing Poll Equations in Andhra PradeshWhile his welfare schemes have garnered him support in the rural parts of the state, issues like unemployment are a major poll concern among urban and young voters, as per political experts.Andhra Pradesh's unemployment was the third-highest in the country in 2022-23, as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data. Another factor that is putting the ruling YSRCP at risk in the controversy surrounding the capital of the state. When Naidu was chief minister, he proposed Amaravati to be the capital of bifurcated Andhra Pradesh. He made grand plans for a 'world-class capital' and even began land acquisition in several villages surrounding the town.The development of the capital region, however, had to be halted after Jagan came to power and proposed three capitals, namely Visakhapatnam (executive capital), Amaravati (legislative capital), and Kurnool (judicial capital).This did not go down well with the farmers whose lands were acquired for the project, as well as the residents of Amaravati and surrounding areas who were hoping for massive economic development. The capital row exacerbated this election season as Jagan declared during a poll rally that he would "take oath as CM from capital Visakhapatnam."How Will BRS' Defeat in Telangana Impact Andhra Pradesh's Electoral Landscape?

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From Capital Row to Caste Dynamics: The Deciding Factors in Andhra Pradesh Polls

Bifurcated in 2014 to make way for Telangana, Andhra Pradesh's political landscape is deeply influenced by caste.

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Topics: Amaravati TDP Chandrababu Naidu