With the Congress decisively ahead in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh heading for a photo-finish, the Assembly elections have proven to be disastrous for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The results are particularly significant if one views them in the context of the Lok Sabha elections, which are due a few months from now.
Remember, the BJP had swept Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It won 62 out of the 65 Lok Sabha constituencies in these three states, leaving Congress with just three seats: two in Madhya Pradesh, one in Chhattisgarh, and zero in Rajasthan.
Each Lok Sabha seat has eight or nine Assembly segments in Chhattisgarh, eight segments in Rajasthan, seven or eight segments in Madhya Pradesh, seven segments in Telangana and 40 segments in Mizoram.
We found that the BJP could end up losing over 30 seats if today’s results are replicated in the Lok Sabha polls. The constituencies of several prominent central ministers could be in danger.