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At least 30 people have died after heavy rainfall triggered a landslide near the Vaishno Devi shrine in Jammu and Kashmir on 26 August.
The tragedy comes amid a spate of extreme weather events in the Himalayas, particularly in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, where heavy rain, flash floods, and cloudbursts have caused widespread devastation.
Just last week, Kishtwar district’s Chisoti village, on the route to the Machail Mata temple, was hit by a devastating flash flood, leaving 65 people dead, and over 100 people injured.
Tragically, these aren't isolated tragedies but part of a pattern.
Extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent and intense in the Himalayan region, turning once predictable monsoon flows into deadly deluges, with flash floods among the most devastating outcomes.
Each flood carries its own heartbreaking story, but the rising frequency and intensity of these disasters point unmistakably to climate change as the underlying driver.
Having personally studied climate patterns, hydro-climate models, and regional precipitation for several years, I can affirm that this is not merely a personal opinion but a reality grounded in robust scientific observations.
From Himalayas to Texas: How Climate Change Fueled Deadly Flash Floods
Whether it’s the catastrophic flash floods happening in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir, or the one that struck Texas recently, scientists have long warned that a warming climate, melting glaciers, and unchecked development in fragile mountain ecosystems are setting the stage for exactly these kinds of disasters.
In India, the monsoon is an intrinsic part of our life. Agriculture relies heavily on its bounty, and our land is nourished by its waters. Yet, that very rain sometimes transforms into a destructive force, obliterating entire villages.
Despite decades of experience, what has been observed in recent monsoon seasons, particularly in the Himalayas, has been deeply unsettling. Rainfall patterns have become increasingly erratic, with cloudbursts and extreme downpours growing more frequent.
Rivers that once rose gradually now surge within minutes, unleashing sudden flash floods and landslides. Traditional warning systems often struggle to keep pace with the speed and scale of these events, leaving communities vulnerable and emergency responses overwhelmed.
The impact of climate change is not exclusively confined to the polar regions or the Himalayas.
In the US, Texas’ Hill Country region is often referred to as "Flash Flood Alley", a name earned due to its unique topography, rocky and clay-heavy soil, and frequent episodes of intense rainfall. These factors combine to make flash floods especially dangerous in the area.
The recent catastrophic flooding in Texas was the result of a lethal combination of extreme rainfall, unstable terrain, and the accelerating impacts of climate change.
In mountainous or rocky regions, the soil’s limited ability to absorb water means rainfall quickly turns into runoff, rushing into rivers and streams and creating dangerous flash floods in a matter of minutes.
While flooding isn’t new to the region, the scale and intensity of these floods are unprecedented — signalling a disturbing new pattern, with climate change as the undeniable common thread.
In this recent disaster, over 130 people lost their lives, and more than 170 are still missing.
How Climate Change Is Rewriting the Rules of Rain and Storms
While it may be inaccurate to blame every disaster solely on climate change, it is far more misguided to ignore its growing and undeniable impact.
Storms, floods, and cloudbursts may have multiple triggers, but scientific evidence shows that rising global temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture are making these events more frequent, intense, and unpredictable.
Warmer air holds more humidity, about seven percent more for every 1°C rise in temperature, as explained by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. This extra moisture stores more energy in the atmosphere, which, under the right conditions, such as when warm, humid air collides with a colder front, is suddenly released as intense precipitation.
This results in sudden, extreme downpours.
What might have been a moderate rainfall event under cooler, normal conditions now escalates into extreme precipitation due to rising temperatures.
Climate change doesn’t just raise temperatures; it transforms rainfall patterns as well. It brings longer dry spells punctuated by intense rainfall, making weather cycles increasingly erratic and difficult to predict.
From the colossal flash floods in Texas to record-breaking heatwaves across Europe and the escalating wildfires in India and beyond, the symptoms all point to the crisis of a rapidly warming world.
For instance, the warming waters of the Gulf of Mexico are fueling more powerful storms. In Europe, countries like Greece, Spain, and France are battling brutal heatwaves and increasingly frequent wildfires, which not only threaten lives and ecosystems but also release vast amounts of carbon dioxide, feeding back into the cycle of global warming.
'Unnatural Disasters'
We frequently categorise these events as 'natural disasters,' engaging in temporary discussions and provisional repairs. In reality, the situation is far more complex and perilous.
Unrestrained urbanisation, unsustainable and unbalanced land use, escalating industrial pollution, and uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions have collectively intensified these events, making them increasingly unpredictable and incomprehensible. This catastrophe is not confined to developed or specific nations.
While the impacts of climate change are felt across the globe, developing countries disproportionately bear the brunt.
Despite contributing the least to global emissions, they often lack the financial resources and technological capacity needed to cope with escalating climate disasters.
On 28 May, a dam collapsed in Nigeria’s Mokwa region following torrential rain, claiming over 700 lives. Even desert nations like the UAE, which typically go months without rainfall, are now witnessing sudden, intense downpours that flood roads and cities.
At the same time, countries with extensive resources, such as China, are also struggling to manage the growing complexity of floods and extreme weather events. These examples make one thing clear: climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is a crisis happening here and now.
These devastating events, especially in fragile ecosystems like the Himalayas, are a clear warning of the immense destruction that can occur when extreme rainfall meets geographical instability.
This underscores the critical need for more efficient and timely early warning systems today.
Scientific bodies like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) have unequivocally demonstrated that human activities are the primary drivers of climate change.
The Paris Agreement represented a collective global commitment to overcome this crisis.
The 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set within the Paris Agreement is not merely a scientific figure; it is an incredibly crucial threshold. Beyond it, we risk triggering irreversible environmental changes, more severe and widespread climate-related disasters, and a global climate system that will evolve in an increasingly uncontrolled and unpredictable manner.
Yet, unfortunately, leaders continue to disregard this escalating crisis.
The flash floods in Texas and in the Himalayas are not just stories to evoke fleeting sympathy; they are a robust warning of imminent danger.
Villages have been obliterated by flash floods resulting from the bursting of glacial lakes. Torrential floods, raging wildfires, and severe droughts are recurring with alarming frequency and accelerating speed.
If we fail to address climate change with the seriousness it demands and in a timely fashion, our future will undoubtedly be fraught with hardship. Our Earth is now approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than it was historically, precisely the limit we aimed to avoid.
Today, the urgent need is for concrete action. Acknowledging and actively confronting climate change is no longer a matter of choice, but an absolute necessity. The battle for the future, from Texas to the Himalayas, truly rests in our own hands.
(Dr Pratik Kad is a Climate Scientist, currently working as a PostDoc at NORCE Research in Bergen, Norway. He is an affiliated member of the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.)