As per a forecast released by the UK Met Office, 2023 is predicted to be one of the hottest on record, with global temperatures averaging around 1.2°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels.
If this forecast proves true, the coming year will be the tenth year in succession that temperatures have reached at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels.
At present, the hottest year in observational record was 2016 – a year that saw an ‘El Niño’ climate pattern in the Pacific that peaked temperatures globally.
But Why Is This Happening?
"The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Niña – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific. La Niña has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature," said the Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone, who has led the 2023 global temperature forecast.
Dunstone explained further:
"For next year, our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Niña state with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific. This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022."
In 2021, the Met Office had predicted that 2022’s global temperature would be between 0.97°C and 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Data from January to October indicates the temperature was about 1.16°C above the pre-industrial era.
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