In 1925, American cartoonist Robert Berkeley “Bob” Minor (1884-1952) sketched a striking caricature depicting China, India, and Africa as slumbering giants, towering in size but subdued by the smaller figures of Western imperialism. The caption “One day they’ll wake up” hinted at an eventual awakening that would overturn the balance of power.
A century later, Minor’s vision still resonates with remarkable clarity. China and India moving to repair ties following years of frosty relations since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash begs the question: Are we witnessing not just a regional rapprochement but also a broader geopolitical realignment led by the Global South?
From Clash to Cautious Engagement
The recent announcements in New Delhi that India and China will resume direct flights, reopen designated border trade points, and set up a new working group on the boundary question marked the most substantial thaw since the deadly clash five years ago. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s two-day visit culminated in promises of cooperation.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement on X that “stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity” signaled India’s readiness to recalibrate. With Modi expected to travel to China later this month for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, his first visit in over seven years, the timing carried added weight.
Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), emphasized the importance of the moment. “China and India both have a long history of civilizations, and as the two biggest developing countries, they should collaborate. There are many things both India and China can do together to revitalize Asia and promote peace and prosperity.”
Former Indian diplomat Anil Wadhwa highlighted the positive trend in bilateral engagement that has been building over the past few months, accelerated by recent pressures from the United States. “The fundamental issues with China remain, but the focus has now shifted to what Indians see as ‘unfair and unjustified’ treatment of India by U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration.” He pointed out that agreements cover a range of practical issues such as reopening border points and resuming flights.
The warming ties are unfolding against the backdrop of Trump’s ongoing tariff wars, which have rattled global trade. Trump’s announcement of a 50 percent punitive tariff against India for purchasing Russian oil may have had an unintended consequence: nudging the two Asian giants closer together.
“In response to strong sanctions and restrictions on trade, imposed particularly by the U.S., China has stood up against unilateralism,” said Wang Huiyao. “India has also been inspired by this and realized the importance of getting along with its biggest neighbor. Both China and India see that, in the face of unilateral bullying, they should collaborate.”
Josef Gregory Mahoney, professor of politics and international relations at East China Normal University, framed it as a broader geopolitical pivot: “India has learned that the U.S. is an unreliable partner. It’s foolish to be an outpost for U.S. hegemony in Asia. While it’s premature to suggest a trilateral agreement between China, Russia, and India will happen, this alone marks a seismic shift from two years ago.” Wadhwa concurred, noting that U.S. pressure and tariff threats have had a catalyzing effect. “Pressure on trade and negative statements by Trump administration officials have had the effect of disenchantment with the U.S. under Trump and erosion of confidence and trust, and China being equally under pressure has reached out to India and accelerated this process.”
This alignment does not suggest a formal alliance, but rather a convergence of interests rooted in what both countries proudly call “strategic autonomy.” Neither New Delhi nor Beijing seeks binding commitments, but both recognize the value of presenting a united front in resisting Western economic pressure.
From Regional Stability to Global South Awakening
Wang Yi’s visit also addressed tangible areas of cooperation. Wang Huiyao underscored the breadth of potential collaboration. “Relations with India are very important, and it shows that China and India can collaborate in many areas including infrastructure, green transition, the digital economy, environment, urbanization, and rural development. There are many opportunities.”
Mahoney suggested that these practical steps could underpin a new paradigm of Asian security. “We may well be at a threshold, a ‘singularity’ moment with regards to establishing a new paradigm for Asian security, with many factors, including the SCO, BRICS, shared relations with Russia, and the end of Pax Americana, encouraging potential breakthroughs.”
The upcoming SCO Summit in China, attended by Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, will provide a critical stage to observe how these shifts play out. Could this mark a revival of the Russia-India-China trilateral? Could platforms like the SCO be reinvigorated to project a stronger collective voice of the Global South?
Wang Huiyao is optimistic. “If China and India can see things on the same wavelength, it would be very significant,” he said. “It would strengthen relations in the region greatly, foster stability and prosperity, and promote future collaboration among regional countries and within the SCO framework. India and China are the two biggest countries in the Global South. They will be a great force for balancing the world. China and India working together would contribute to global peace, prosperity, and stability for the region and the world.”
Mahoney noted that the SCO and trilateral dynamics are already creating a cascade effect. “Whatever is resolved between the U.S. and Russia, between the EU and Russia, Russia’s focus is now on Asia. India has learned the U.S. is an unreliable partner… This tipping point has already been realized in China-Russia relations.”
Wadhwa highlighted the broader strategic calculation. “The SCO Summit is a peg, but the key engagement is the bilateral summit meeting between the Chinese and Indian leaders. There will be important and candid exchange of views. Both sides seem to be clear that they would like to reach a new equilibrium in their relationship while stating their red lines.”
Historical Resonance and the Road Ahead
The Minor cartoon from 1925 captures the enduring theme of Asia’s latent potential — a narrative echoed in contemporary geopolitics. The awakening of China and India is shaped not only by their own ambitions but also by the perceived unreliability of traditional Western powers. Trump-era tariffs and threats catalyzed India’s strategic calculus while China continues to expand its influence through trade engagement and regional forums like the SCO.
Wadhwa added a cautionary note. While India, China, and other Global South nations are rising powers, their trajectories depend on peaceful, stable environments and domestic stability. “They need to avoid turbulence in the path to economic development and they need a stable and peaceful domestic atmosphere.”
Despite these encouraging signs, challenges remain. The boundary question is far from fully resolved, and China’s close ties with Pakistan continue to complicate New Delhi’s approach. Economic and sectoral issues, while improving, remain sensitive. Yet the trajectory is unmistakable. India and China are recalibrating their relationship in response to global pressures, economic imperatives, and regional opportunities.
As Minor’s cartoon predicted a century ago, the giants are stirring. China and India, once slumbering under the shadow of Western dominance, are awakening — not as antagonists, but as potential architects of a more balanced, multipolar global order. The question now is whether this awakening will translate into sustained collaboration, setting the stage for a Global South that can assert its voice on the world stage without ceding strategic autonomy.
The author, Abhishek G Bhaya, is a senior international affairs commentator and an Indian contributor to China-India Dialogue.
(The content is provided by Beijing-based China-India Dialogue.)