Recent weeks have witnessed an upsurge in terror strikes on Pakistani soil. Blasts in Lahore, Sehwan, Peshawar and Balochistan have claimed over 100 lives. Clearly, no part of Pakistan is safe from terror attacks. They have rattled the nation and its army leadership.
The army has recommenced its counter-terror operations, codenamed ‘Radd-ul-Fasaad’, against terrorist groups, employing artillery and air strikes within its own territory and across the border into Afghanistan. In the interiors, Pak Rangers have been given a free hand. The areas where military strikes have been launched are remote, out of bounds to news media and generally mountainous, with poor connectivity. Hence, the only news emerging is what’s released by the Pakistan Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR).
Relationship With Afghanistan Spiralling Downwards
The army’s claims of killing over 100 militants on the first day of operations appear to be too far-fetched, unless the militants were bunched up just awaiting an assault, which is unlikely. In all probability, it would be a case of genocide in remote areas in a similar manner to the supersession of the Baloch uprising. Its strikes across the border have generally been uncontested as the areas are not under the direct control of the Afghan army, inviting no more than objections from the Afghan government. However, its simultaneous sealing of the border and blocking movement of goods and people have increased hardships and worsened the already sinking relationship between the two countries. There are anti-Pakistan protests in every major city in Afghanistan. Relations between the two seem to be moving swiftly downhill.
Pakistan has reiterated its claim that the Afghan intelligence agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS), supported by India’s RAW, have been behind the recent attacks and provide support to anti-Pak terror groups. It has asked Afghanistan to hand over 76 known terrorists presently located on its soil. Afghanistan, on the other hand, has demanded 85 terrorists from Pakistan.
The end result: Neither trusts the other, neither will bend, but Pakistan can and will launch operations across the border because it possesses greater military power. The fact remains that while Pak officially supports the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network and also provides them bases in the country, Afghanistan may maintain limited contact with anti-Pak terror groups. In most cases, the groups use Afghan soil in remote mountainous areas not fully under the control of the Afghan military.
Pakistan’s Current Policies Aren’t Working For It
Is Pakistan’s approach of continuing to antagonise both its neighbours (India and Afghanistan) likely to benefit it in the long term? Are there better options for the country and does its leadership possess the ability to change track?
Pak’s policy of ‘good vs bad terror’, and its harsh brutality in subduing freedom struggles, are now coming home to roost. The groups which now torment the country are breakaway factions of the Afghan Taliban, which it still supports. ISIS, which has its bases in Afghanistan and possibly also remote parts of Pakistan, has found supporters within the country and has a growing cadre comprising disenchanted members of the Pakistan and Afghan Taliban. Pakistan’s brutality in dealing with internal strife will only push recruitment for these groups.
Pakistan’s relations with both its neighbours is deteriorating, magnifying its security concerns. Relations with India have been difficult for decades, but now the same seems to be the case with Afghanistan as well.
While it is easy for Pakistan to blame India for all its ills to satisfy its local audience, the reality is that the country needs no enemy. Its own policies have come back to haunt it and unless it takes corrective action, it could fail as a nation state.
To ensure the security of its population, it needs to change its internal policies, failing which, India would only need sit back and perhaps prod the anti-Pak groups, and watch from the sidelines as the country disintegrates.
Pakistan has yet to learn from its earlier experiences. Extrajudicial killings, employing brute force and genocide, which it resorted to over the past few years, only incites the population more and turns fence-sitters into suicide bombers and terrorists. Further, as observed in J&K, locals joining the movement would increase, only adding to the pressure on security forces.
What Are Its Options?
Pakistan presently has only a few options if it seeks to bring in an environment of internal peace and control the spread of ISIS within its borders.
Firstly, it would need to stop supporting the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network and push its members into Afghanistan for the Afghan army to handle. As a quid pro quo, the Afghan government could return the favour with the Pak Taliban. While this option sounds easy, it is difficult to implement. It could turn the same groups the ‘deep state’ supports against itself, only enhancing chaos within. If it avoids this option, then the present situation may continue or even worsen. Enhanced military operations may weaken the groups temporarily, but they would rebound with increased vigour, heightening local casualties.
Secondly, and more easily implementable, is to tighten control over anti-India groups and strictly enforce a ceasefire along the borders. Once such an action is visible, India could commence talks, permitting Pak to reduce deployment and enable greater availability of troops for anti-terror operations. Further, India could impress upon Afghanistan the need to reduce whatever limited support it provides to the Pakistan Taliban. Conversely however, if Pak continues with its present policy, India could increase deployment of troops along the borders, compelling Pakistan to reduce forces employed in anti-terror operations, thus affecting their success. If India enhances support to anti-Pak terror groups, it would further add to their problems.
Pakistan faces its present crisis only because the monsters it once supported have come back to bite it. It may blame its neighbours, but the problem is of its own doing. It has limited options if it seeks long-term peace. These options are tough and if it fails to consider implementing them, then it may, with immense application of force, obtain only a limited reprieve, with the situation bouncing back with greater tenacity. It faces tough choices, but then, tough times demand tough action. China cannot help but just watch, as the decision is solely of Pakistan.
India can watch, wait and smile as Pakistan battles its own creations.
(The author is a retired army officer based in Lucknow. He can be reached @kakar_harsha. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)