Jailed peasant leader Akhil Gogoi has filed his nomination for the Sibsagar constituency in the upcoming Assembly elections in Assam. He had earlier announced his candidature from Mariani as well but withdrew, making Sibsagar his main battleground.
Gogoi has been in custody since December 2019 when he was arrested during the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests in Assam.
Gogoi will be contesting under the banner of Raijor Dal, one of the newly formed regional outfits in Assam. It is in alliance with the Assam Jatiya Parishad.
The question is - can Gogoi compete against bigger players like the BJP and the Congress?
Looking for an answer, we travelled to Sibsagar.
Why Sibsagar is Important
Situated in Upper Assam, Sibsagar was the capital of the erstwhile Ahom kingdom and therefore is of immense symbolic importance. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addressed their early campaign rallies in Sibsagar.
The constituency comprises of Sivasagar town along with the rural pockets around it. Over 50 percent of voters here are Ahoms, followed by 20 percent Caste Assamese voters and 15 percent Muslims.
Apart from the Congress, which has been winning the seat since 2001, the constituency used to be a stronghold of the Communist Party of India (CPI). However in the last election, BJP lost the seat narrowly by 542 votes, underlining its growing influence.
What's Working for Gogoi?
Travelling through the constituency, we observed that a number of factors are helping Gogoi compete with the bigger parties.
A key factor is his long incarceration. “Akhil is being kept in jail because otherwise he would corner the BJP,” claimed a group of young men in Ailamukh, who promptly kept aside their carrom game to discuss Gogoi.
The sentiment that Gogoi is being incarcerated unjustly resonates across the constituency.
Over the last decade, the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) – a prominent peasant organisation led by Gogoi - built a strong presence in the region by mobilising farmers around a variety of issues. Right now, they are Gogoi’s biggest support base. This became quite apparent as we travelled through the rural parts of Sibsagar. In Mogorahaat village, a group of farmers told us that Gogoi was someone who always talked about farmers, and therefore they would support him in the elections.
We observed that there is an expectation, as reiterated by farmers in Namdang and Pabhajan that, “ Gogoi as MLA would be able to address their issues because he understands them better than others”.
Towards the town and among middle class voters, Gogoi’s supporters have another reason for standing with him. They look at him as the face of a strong political Opposition in Assam. A group of middle-aged men we met in Kareng Tiniali told us that Gogoi could be a strong voice in Dispur.
Explaining Gogoi’s appeal, voters outside a fair-price shop in Bogidol told us, “While others talk in circles, Gogoi directly takes on those in power”.
One of the ways BJP could have contained Gogoi’s growing popularity was by fielding an equally high-profile candidate. Perhaps this was why, initially there speculation that Jorhat MP Tapan Gogoi could contest from Sibsagar. Being a former student leader, ex-MLA and parliamentarian, Tapan is a known face in Upper Assam. But in the end, BJP decided to re-nominate Surabhi Rajkonwar who had lost narrowly to the Congress in 2016. Rajkonwar is also known in the area, but doesn’t have Gogoi’s mass appeal.
Another factor helping Gogoi is that the electorate in Sibsagar isn't quite polarised on communal lines. Despite the BJP repeatedly harping on the Congress' alliance with AIUDF, it hasn't really worked in Sibsagar. This may partly be due to Sibsagar’s syncretic cultural past.
Voters in Aamgurihat asserted confidently that such polarising tactics are unlikely to work in Sibsagar. “Both communities have a harmonious bond here, so much so that many Muslim families have a tradition of holding two-day weddings, one day especially for their non-Muslim guests," one of them said.
What's Not Working For Him?
However, these positive factors are still not sufficient enough to guarantee Gogoi's victory. There are many shortcomings as well.
One major weakness of Gogoi’s campaign is the absence of a robust party organisation. While KMSS does have a presence here, it neither has the experience nor sufficient personnel to adequately manage elections. What the BJP candidate may lack in terms of mass appeal may get compensated due to a strong party structure.
This could lead to a possibility that the enthusiasm for Gogoi doesn't translate into votes to the extent he hopes.
The Congress, which won the seat last time, is also in the fray and this could lead to a split in the anti-BJP votes though its support may have eroded since last time.
Gogoi's withdrawal in Mariani may have helped the prospects of sitting Congress MLA Rupjyoti Kurmi but the Grand Old Party didn't reciprocate in Sibsagar.
The biggest hurdle for Gogoi is that as of now, there isn’t any significant anti-incumbency against BJP in the seat.
What needs to be understood is that Sibsagar constituency has been with Congress since 2001. Therefore it is not BJP but Congress, which is at the receiving end of voters' dissatisfaction. The BJP has been trying to lure voters with the promise of 'development'. A section of voters does believe that having an MLA from the ruling party may help in Sibsagar's development.
This sentiment may go against Gogoi as his party the Raijor Dal and its ally the Assam Jatiya Parishad are in no position to capture power in the state. Some businessmen we met in Joysagar complained that Sibsagar has fallen behind Jorhat and Dibrugarh (cities in upper Assam) because a BJP legislator did not represent it.
But the sympathy element is also strong and Gogoi is very much in the fight. The traction he has generated despite being in custody for over a year is quite significant.
(Abhinav Borbora teaches political science and Swaswati Borkataki teaches history at Assam Royal Global University, Guwahati. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed are the authors’ own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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