Who Will Win 'Pahalgam War'? India, America, China, in That Order

Just when the Trump/America crisis seemed to be settling a tad, we had Pahalgam, which has really thrown the whole China-Pak-India equation into the mother of all uncertainties.

(Photo: Vibhushita Singh/The Quint)

WhatsApp chat groups are perhaps the most versatile social innovations of the 21st century. They can become anything, take any form. A family album. A family crib group against elitist, arrogant cousins. A daily satsang (religious gathering). A political protest or propaganda group. A “joke club” of septuagenarian schoolmates or golf buddies.

But not all groups are frivolous or dark. Some acquire the heft of a quickie think tank. Say, a batch of “Indian Ivy Leaguers,” re-connecting four decades since leaving college. The intellectual diversity, energy, and depth can be awesome. Global bankers. Retired IAS/IFS/IRS administrators. Tech veterans. Professors. Entrepreneurs. Stock market wizards. Journalists. Policy wonks. United Nations advisors. Civil society activists. Retired Olympians. Artistes.

A hundred lives, criss-crossing continents, straddling forty years, from Ludhiana to Lesotho, from Australia to Oregon. Four thousand person-years of knowledge and experience, seamlessly on an instant electronic exchange, unbound by distance, time, or geography.

So, the fire hose of insights is astonishingly illuminating. Hear the person who negotiated the Indus Waters Treaty tell you what its suspension means in the gorges of Kashmir or the plains of Pakistan’s Punjab. Listen to a Chicago-based bond trader tell you what tariffs could do to US treasuries. Lean on a veteran cricketer/writer to read the odds-on IPL favourite this season. The cornucopia of organic, native, lived wisdom freely ruminating on such WhatsApp chat groups is unmatched and unmatchable.

A Morning of Raw Exchanges

I had an especially evocative exchange this morning on my college eco-batchmates’ group. I will share the messages as they popped up, rat-a-tat, to keep it raw and real. Remember these WhatsApp posts are put out instinctively and on-the-trot, without deep research or enquiry. They spring from the writer’s knowledge gathered over decades, rather than via any specific validation. It’s instinctive and therefore, forceful.

Global Economist (Liberal): Raghav, have you written anything on how the India-China relationship is likely to emerge? Or on the evolving US-India relationship?

Me: The situation since 20 January has been so volatile and unprecedented that it would have been naive to project anything until a definite direction became visible. And just when the Trump/America crisis seemed to be settling a tad, we had Pahalgam, which has really thrown the whole China-Pak-India equation into the mother of all uncertainties.

There is bound to be a fierce and (hopefully) brief “war” between India and Pakistan. And China will have to do some truly tightrope diplomacy—militarily, it supports Pakistan, but economically, it is keen to do deals with India. This will really test President Xi.

So, to prognosticate any future outcome right now would be akin to building a foundation on jelly. Better to watch and wait it out a bit.

Global Economist (Liberal): And any thoughts/pieces on US-India relations? Clearly, the US wants close ties. I’m guessing, so do we. Will it happen?

Me: That’s a much easier one. We have no option but to get closer to America (and Europe); the only semi-independent amplitude we will seek to carve out is a close engagement with Russia and a reasonably strong economic engagement with the “China block” nations.

The US will want more concessions to allow us that amplitude, and that’s where Prime Minister Modi will be tested.

Global Investment Banker: Will China restrain Pakistan and use military assistance to Pakistan as leverage/inducement? What economic issues will it use with India as leverage/inducement? If there is an India/Pakistan armed conflict, I hope India will have clear objectives?

Me: All very key questions, and we can only wait to figure these out. The fact is that the Pakistan army is not a cipher, and if we hit, as we will, there will be a hard response.

Thoughtful, Measured Batchmate: I am concerned about another aspect. Over the years, we have been debating our capability to fight a two-front war. How is that impacted with Bangladesh turning hostile? Shouldn't we be a little circumspect in how we respond?

Can we afford a (mis?)adventure against Pakistan, especially when we frame it largely in Hindu vs Muslim terms?

The Unfortunate Aftermath

The chat ended here, but I went to sleep with a sneaking feeling that I had copped out.

I had hidden behind a colourful phrase—“building a foundation on jelly”—but did not have the courage to make a reasoned judgement on how things would play out.

I need not have fretted because I woke up to six screaming newspaper headlines that broke down a complex prognosis into a pretty simple call:

India and Pakistan Will Figure it Out, ‘One Way or Another’: Trump (Indian Express)

The report quoted a crackling Presidential comment. “I am very close to India, and very close to Pakistan … they’ve had that fight for 1,000 years, (there have been) tensions on that border for 1,500 years”. Huh! Trump’s incredible sense of history says it all! America will be hands-off and transactional. You give me zero duty on Harleys, I will give you one vote in the United Nations. You place an order for a squadron of F-35s, I will veto on your behalf!!

Pakistan, Backed by China, Dilutes United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Statement (Sunday Times);

India, China Move to Normalise Ties, Kailash Mansarovar Yatra to Resume in June After 5 Years (Indian Express)

There’s China’s dual role laid bare. So perhaps they will initially help Pakistan ratchet up the military talk, but after a few days of fierce fighting, clamp down hard on Islamabad to cease fire, and swivel to India saying, “See we swatted the hawks of Rawalpindi General Headquarters (GHQ), now please talk trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) with us”.

After Diplomatic Steps, a Range of Retaliatory Options on Govt Table (Indian Express);

‘Flood alert’: PoK Claims India Released Water (Sunday Times)

Clearly, India will hit hard, from all sides, and make a big media brouhaha about it. But then, in deference to the “pleas from global allies”, India will, statesmanlike, declare victory and stop the missiles, but keep the diplomatic offensive on full boil.

Pak Trots Out its Familiar Post-Attack line: Open to Any ‘Neutral’ Probe (Indian Express)

Pakistan will want to be seen as hitting back forcefully, perhaps also notch up a couple of “trophy slashes”. They will up the “blood rhetoric” to pump up citizens’ adrenalin, but then quickly do a volte face to “accept” the end of hostilities.

That’s how the “Pahalgam War” will end. Unfortunately, the battles and skirmishes may continue much longer.