Indus Waters Treaty: Why Abandoning it Can be a 'Dam' Headache for India
Stopping the flow of river water into Pakistan may involve massive infrastructural challenges.
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The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, often comes back into focus whenever tensions between India and Pakistan rise. After the deadly terror attack in Uri in 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared, "blood and water cannot flow together." Since then, rivers have continued to flow-but so has blood, most recently with the tragic killing of 28 innocent people in Pahalgam. Now, the treaty is once again in the spotlight.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) recently announced that the treaty would be "held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irreversibly stops supporting cross-border terrorism."
“Held in abeyance” is a diplomatic phrase, but in the media, on X (formerly Twitter), in tea-shop or paan-shop conversations, and even on family WhatsApp groups, many people see it as a sign that India is going to stop the flow of Indus river waters to Pakistan. Although the MEA used careful language, public discussions have taken a stronger tone.
Provision of the Indus Water Treaty
India has full rights to use all the water from the eastern rivers namely Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, which have an average annual flow of about 33 million acre-feet (MAF). The western rivers - Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab- with a flow of about 135 MAF, are mostly allocated to Pakistan.
However, India is allowed limited use of the western rivers for domestic needs, non-consumptive purposes, certain agricultural use and hydroelectric power generation. India’s right to generate hydropower is unrestricted, but must follow design and operational rules. India is also allowed to store up to 3.6 MAF of water on the western rivers.
Excess Water from Eastern Rivers Still Flows to Pakistan
In 2019, three Members of the Rajya Sabha asked the following questions regarding water-sharing with Pakistan:
Is it true that more water is being released to Pakistan from the Harike Pattan Barrage than before?
Is more water being released from the Ravi River to Pakistan compared to previous levels?
To what extent has the storage capacity been increased in the last three years to prevent water from flowing into Pakistan?
The government replied on the 8 July, 2019 that it was making efforts to stop water from flowing into Pakistan by regulating releases from Bhakra, Pong, and Ranjit Sagar (Thein) dams on the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers. However, it said that dam water levels must be managed to ensure safety and handle heavy inflows.
In 2018–19, high rainfall and heavy snow increased water levels in these dams. To prevent flooding and protect the dam structures during the monsoon, a joint decision was taken by the Bhakra Beas Management Board and the states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan to use as much water as possible in their canals and release excess water to Pakistan. Between 21 May and 20 June, 2019, around 7700 cusecs were released downstream of Harike and 2300 cusecs below Madhopur on the Ravi.
Officials from the Department of Water Resources told the Parliamentary Committee (in November 2020) that because the canals are old and poorly maintained, India has no choice but to let some water flow into Pakistan.
"Our problem is that our canals, which are in Punjab and Rajasthan, were built a long time ago. They are very old. They are not maintained the way they should be, and as a result, they cannot carry as much water as they are supposed to.
One example is the Harike Barrage. Two major canals branch out from Harike - one is called the Rajasthan Feeder and the other is the Sirhind Feeder. As per their capacity, in today's time, we are not able to utilize even a third of what they can carry. Because of this limitation, we are forced to release excess water from the Harike Barrage, and eventually, that water flows into Pakistan."
Underused Entitlements
India has not fully utilised the rights granted to it under the Indus Waters Treaty. The treaty allows India to build water storage of up to 3.6 million acre-feet (MAF) on the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India has the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project on the Jhelum River and the Ratle Hydroelectric Project (850 MW) on the Chenab River, but progress has been slow. Out of the estimated 20,000 MW hydropower potential from these rivers, only 3,482 MW has been utilized so far.
There is also a significant gap in agricultural use. The treaty permits India to develop an Irrigated Cropped Area (ICA) of over 13.43 lakh acres using waters from the western rivers. But as per the available data for the 2019–20 crop year, only about 7.59 lakh acres have been developed. These figures show that despite having clear entitlements under the treaty, India has not made full use of the water, energy, and irrigation potential available to it.
Geographical Challenge to Store Water of the western flowing rivers
To stop the flow of water, India would need to either store it or divert the rivers. Pakistan is entitled to 117 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water under the Indus Waters Treaty. 117 BCM is enough to flood 120,000 square kilometers to a depth of 1 meter every year. To put this into perspective, this volume could submerge the entire Kashmir Valley to a depth of 7 meters in just one year. Storing this amount of water would require 30 reservoirs the size of Tehri Dam, and finding enough land for them would be a huge challenge.
Diverting the rivers is equally impractical. Even diverting just one of the three rivers would require building a man-made river over hundreds of kilometers, which would be an enormous engineering challenge. It would cost billions, require vast amounts of land, and take decades to complete. Both storage and diversion options would have no impact on Pakistan for 30 to 50 years, and would result in severe environmental damage.
Officials from the Department of Water Resources, River Development, and Ganga Rejuvenation told the Parliamentary Standing Committee that (Nov 2020) “the topography of the Indus River basin, especially in Jammu and Kashmir and parts of Himachal Pradesh, makes it impossible to use more water than India already does. Technically, it is not feasible”
Diplomatic Tightrope, Legal Challenges
India is the upper riparian country in the Indus River basin and holds significantly more power than Pakistan, which might tempt it to take unilateral actions. However, on its eastern front, India is a lower riparian in the Brahmaputra basin, where China is building dams upstream- something India has strongly objected to. If India chooses to act unilaterally in the West (Indus), it would weaken its own position and arguments against China in the East.
Moreover, such a move would send a negative message to Bangladesh, another lower riparian country that depends on rivers flowing from India. It could raise concerns about India’s commitment to fair and cooperative water sharing across the region.
Article XII (3) of the Indus Waters Treaty says that the treaty can be changed if both India and Pakistan sign a new treaty for that purpose. Article XII (4) adds that the current treaty—or any modified version of it—will remain in effect unless both countries agree to end it through a new, ratified treaty. In short, any changes to the treaty can only be made jointly by both governments.
Is it Even in India’s Interest to Abandon the Treaty?
The question is not whether India can abandon the Indus Water Treaty; indeed, India is in a position to do so. The real question is: why should India abandon it? What are the costs and benefits of such a move? The answer, at present, is that there are no significant benefits to abandoning the treaty.
However, the Standing Committee of Parliament rightly points out that when the treaty was negotiated in the 1960s, issues like climate change, global warming, and environmental impact assessments were not considered. Therefore, the Committee urges the Government of India to take the necessary diplomatic steps to renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan.
When we are concerned about declining groundwater levels, the future availability of Gangetic freshwater due to climate change, China's unilateral actions on the Brahmaputra, and the need to utilise more water from the Indus, abandoning the treaty is an option. However, such a decision would necessitate significant investments in large-scale hydraulic infrastructure to effectively manage and redirect water resources. But the chatter on social media, media and paan-shops don't really hold much water.