Modi, BRICS, and Trump: The Geopolitical Gamble Behind India’s Balancing Act

India’s BRICS dilemma deepens as US pressure mounts and China hardens—can Modi redefine the bloc’s future?

Torn between BRICS and the West, India walks a tightrope as global powers clash over currency and influence.

(Photo: PTI)

There is a view in the foreign policy establishment that India should step away from regional bodies that are dominated by Russia and China like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Old-time diplomats toying with a glass of scotch whisky in their hands are often caught dismissing engagement with them 'a bloody waste of time'. Worse, our presence in BRICS and SCO is antagonising the US.

This is true, US President Donald Trump despite his mercurial behaviour has been consistent in his sustained attack on BRICS, which in his reckoning has been created to undermine the hegemony of dollar through de-dollarisation of the world economy.

Trump has threatened to impose 10 percent tariff on the BRICS countries, which are 11 now – in a bid to destroy the countries that he thinks are out to "destroy the dollar". It did not faze the likes of Russia, China or Brazil.

India has maintained its silence ever since Trump dragged BRICS in its arc of attack. Trump’s aggression has deepened India’s ambivalence about the body conceived by Goldman Sachs’ economist Baron O’Neil in 2011. Initially only South Africa was added to the acronym of Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC), but now five more countries have enrolled.

BRICS Expansion and the Rise of a Parallel Economic Order

Now the construct contains 40 percent of the world GDP and more than half of the world population. In the coming days the number of countries will increase to 18. The reason why more and more countries are queuing up to join BRICS – even western allies – is due to the fact it is promising life even after US mindlessly imposes sanctions as well as allows trade in national currency other than dollars.

BRICS over the years has created a structure that rivals the West.

It has built a mechanism for transfer of money between nations – other than the SWIFT international payment system. it has set up the New Development Bank on the lines of the World Bank. All these moves have fed the West’s paranoia.

India on the other hand, in the name of strategic autonomy, has tried to maintain equidistance between the two blocs. This may have succeeded – somewhat during the Democrat administration, but with Trump in power, those charming ambiguities visible in the earlier administration have disappeared.

The ‘Outlier’ Label and Growing Distrust Within BRICS

Trump has made it clear that he wants the BRICS crushed. Any move in that direction would likely lead to a serious dilemma for India. India does not support the de-dollarisation policies of Russia, which is supported by South Africa.

This dilly-dallying on core issues of BRICS has prompted a Brazilian economist Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr to suggest India as an “outlier” within BRICS and a “Trojan Horse.”

The economist seems to fundamentally be suggesting that India cannot be trusted. He made these remarks when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Brazil for the Rio summit.

The drift of his argument was that India may have a hidden agenda and may not be aligned to the group’s values. He brought to the fore Indian support to the US and Israel’s genocidal actions in Gaza, which in his reckoning does not align with that of BRICS.

Modi’s Ideological Signalling and Strategic Messaging

Batista is no pushover. He is a BRICS establishment man. He navigated BRICS NDB for a while and was also with International Monetary Fund some years ago.

Despite these misgivings expressed by an influential quarter of the BRICS, India has hung on. PM Modi was the Chief Guest at the summit. He did not hide his ideological proclivities when he stopped by at Buenos Aires to meet its President, Javier Milei, a rising star of the global right and much admired by President Trump’s establishment.

His short stay in Argentina amply conveyed a message to Washington: Trump should not write him off. He is an ally after all. It was a reiteration of what Batista has said about Modi, and what he thought of BRICS.

Modi’s Vision for BRICS and the Western Balancing Act

As the next chair of BRICS in 2026, Modi is promising to change the character of BRICS. True to his wont to play around with acronyms, he has linked BRICS with sustainability and regional development.

This could be music to the ears of those who do not want a rebellious South coalescing around BRICS and demanding the end of dollar hegemony and de-dollarisation.

These hopes could all become futile if Trump refuses to countenance the advantages that are coming the US' way through an alliance with India rather than expecting whopping gains by compelling Delhi to open its agriculture sector by weaponising its tariffs.

Lately, Trump has been mollycoddling Pakistan and its army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir also. This is of annoyance to India after it mounted operation Sindoor to avenge the killings in Pahalgam area of Kashmir.

India-China Tensions and the Limits of RIC Revival

To hedge itself from setbacks, India is trying to rebuild ties with China and revive a moribund RIC or a trilateral, India, China and Russia arrangement as a counterpoint to US-led law-based order. This is proving to be difficult as China is playing hard ball.

On one hand it is talking sweet nothings to India, it has also instructed its companies to withdraw all investment from here. The latest being the sale of stake of a Chinese company, Trip.com from a travel portal, makemytrip.com, which was sold for 3 billion dollars.

The Chinese company obviously was working at behest of the government making it amply clear that the MakeMyTrip investment was not aligned to the policies of the Chinese government. China is learnt to further withdraw from a pharma company, Glenpharma, also.

India’s Next Move in the BRICS is Critical

Earlier, China had cajoled a Taiwanese company manufacturing Apple’s iPhone to withdraw engineers from China plus their plant and machinery.

These have dark portents for the BRICS and the only way it can continue to survive in this avatar is if India stops pining to be part of the Western powers and continue to be part of the BRICS order.

If that does not happen then two things will happen – either BRICS will melt or it would see the exit of India that disagrees with Russia and China about their anti-Americanism.

(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)