Delhi Elections: AAP's 'Three Saviours' Likely to Hold the Fort for Kejriwal

Delhi may still vote for AAP, but it will be a piecemeal win as the party has lost its moral edge, writes Ashutosh.

Arvind Kejriwal's AAP is facing off with the BJP's full might in the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections 2025. Will Delhi voters come to his rescue for a third time?

(Photo: The Quint)

Delhi is set to witness a 'normal' Assembly election for the first time since 2013 when the debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerged as a giant-killer, ending the Congress’ long reign in the national capital.

The 2015 and the 2020 Assembly elections were exceptional in the sense that the AAP was then treated like an outlier by the Delhi voters, with a certain moral aura surrounding the party and its leaders. They, thus, rejected the national parties — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) — with the hope for a “new dawn”, beyond corrupt politics and politicians. The AAP got 67 and 62 seats out of the total 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly in these two elections, respectively.

But 2025 is a different time and era. The AAP is no longer perceived as the moral force that had promised to change the system at the time of its inception. It has become like any other political party — and its leader Arvind Kejriwal like any other political leader.

Instead of changing the system, he has become part of the system. From the common man, he has morphed into one of them.

In that way, the 2025 election is a fight between the two political forces engaged in a pursuit of power to form the government in Delhi; none of them can claim to be morally different.

After the 'Revolution'

The AAP was a middle-class revolution that seemed to challenge the status quo. In 2013 and 2014, the Manmohan Singh-led Congress government at the Centre faced unprecedented corruption charges; people were upset and were desperately looking for change.

At one end of the spectrum, Kejriwal emerged as an alternative to corrupt politics, and at the other end, Narendra Modi was seen as a ‘messiah’ who would find a solution to all the ills that the country was facing then. Both the leaders were idolised by the powerful middle class.

If Modi got the historic 282 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP rewrote history by winning 28 seats with 29.5 percent votes in the 2013 Delhi polls. Both leaders radicalised Indian politics. Modi has since unleashed a right-wing revolution in the country which has substantially changed the social fabric of the nation.

The AAP, despite being an ideology-deficient party, tried to usher in a subaltern revolution by empowering the common people with free electricity, water, and better facilities for education and health. But by 2025, both leaders have become pale shadows of their earlier image, with little credibility among voters.

Both Modi and Kejriiwal are now behaving like typical, old-school politicians who can do anything, stoop to any low, to win an election.

It is because of this loss of credibility that Modi failed to win majority numbers in Parliamentary elections last year, and now at the time of writing, Kejriwal is struggling to hold his fort in Delhi.

Changing Face of Kejriwal, Modi

Since surrendering the tag of being a ‘change agent’, Kejriwal has become politically vulnerable. In this election, he is trying to resurrect his old image, but nobody is ready to believe him. With the moral aura around him and the AAP diminished, Kejriwal has to depend on the traditional tools of politics.

In Delhi, a large section of the middle class, which was instrumental in Kejriwal becoming the darling of the masses in previous polls, is now highly disillusioned and may opt for an alternative.

Delhi, in comparison to the rest of the county, is a rich state with a per capita income of Rs 4.61 lakh, three times more than the national average, and an 88 percent literacy rate.

The upper middle class, which turned the tide in favour of the AAP, has grown extremely unhappy. This is the same class which has been seduced by the Hindutva ideology and politics, and votes for Modi in bulk in the Parliamentary elections.

It is, therefore, not surprising that the BJP has won all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi since 2014 with this class playing a pivotal role to make that happen. But this very class of voters shifts its loyalty to Kejriwal in the Assembly elections.

It is not a coincidence that in the Parliamentary elections, the BJP crosses the barrier of 50 percent vote share while the AAP does the same in Assembly polls. Whether the AAP is able to repeat the same performance this time is yet to be seen. 

In the absence of a strong upper-middle class voter base, the AAP in this election has to rely majorly upon three social demographic blocks, namely Muslims, Dalits, and women. These three can emerge as the "saviours" for Kejriwal.

The Reluctant Muslim Voters

Muslims consist of 12.68 percent of the population of Delhi whereas Dalits make up 16.92 percent.

Together, the two groups make a solid vote base of approximately 30 percent of the population. It is true that Muslims in Delhi are not happy with the AAP.

Though Congress remains their first preference, Muslim voters know that the Congress is in no position to defeat the BJP.

Therefore, Muslims are left with no option but to vote for the AAP at a pan-Delhi level, except in a few constituencies where an individual candidate is in a position to defeat the BJP. 

It was Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra that helped change the opinion of Muslim voters towards the Congress. It helped them realise that the Congress is the only party which has not compromised with Modi and his brand of communal politics and remains the only force which can defeat the BJP nationally.

The AAP was once in a position to swap that role with the Congress, but it committed mistakes by not supporting Muslims when the community was in trouble in the capital.

Neither did the AAP come forward to support the Shaheen Bagh movement nor did it help the community during and after the 2020 communal violence in Northeast Delhi when 53 people were killed, majority of them Muslim.

Anxious to not be tagged as an “anti-Hindu” party by the BJP, the AAP under Kejriwal’s leadership resorted to flirting with ‘soft Hindutva’. And yet, in this election, Muslims will reluctantly vote for the AAP.

Dalit and Women Remain Significant

Along with Muslims, the AAP can rely upon Dalit voters too. According to a Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey, 83 percent Muslims voted for the AAP in 2020 Assembly elections. Only 13 percent opted for the Congress. The BJP was liked by 3 percent Muslim voters in Delhi. 

Meanwhile, nearly 69 percent Dalits decided to vote for the AAP. Only 25 percent chose the BJP while the Congress share was abysmal at 6 percent. The AAP is confident that Dalits would not majorly change their opinion this time.

Over the years, the party has very cleverly tried to align itself with Babasaheb BR Ambedkar. This is the same party which once used to swear by Mahatma Gandhi and his politics.

It realises now that Gandhi gives no guarantee for votes, but that Babasaheb resonates with Dalits and the more marginalised Other Backward Castes (OBC).

It is, thus, no wonder that in the last few years, Ambedkar's photo has found space on the wall behind the Delhi chief minister‘s chair, symbolically alongside Bhagat Singh.

The AAP has also decisively tried to woo women voters this poll season. Just before the election was announced, the party announced free bus rides for women, which is a huge economic relief for lower middle class and poor women.

They are now saving a lot of money, and this has also helped them achieve improved mobility across the city. Free bus rides are especially liberating for women from marginalised sections.

Delhi women were also happy with the government’s free electricity and almost free water policy. It is not surprising that in the 2020 election, 60 percent women voters chose the AAP and only 35 percent voted for the BJP. This gap of 25 percent, as captured by the CSDS survey, is significant.

Among male voters, the fight between the AAP and the BJP was almost even. If 49 percent voted for the AAP, 43 percent male voters opted for the saffron party. This indicates that it is the chunk women voters that tilted the balance decisively in favour of the AAP and was a major contributor to the party's victory in 62 seats with 53.4 percent votes.

Aware of this trend and hoping to capitalise on it, the AAP has promised Rs 2,100 through direct cash transfer to women older than 18 years, if it wins and forms government in Delhi again.

In wake of its experience in the Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra Assembly elections, where pro-women schemes hugely benefited the BJP, the saffron party has also announced Rs 2,500 per month for women. But in Delhi, the BJP doesn't have the advantage of being in power and doling out money to accounts before women can exercise their right to vote.

Can AAP Manage a Hat-Trick?

There is no reason to believe that these three social blocks will not support the AAP. It is also true that the party has been in power for more than 10 years in Delhi, and there is a sense of anti-incumbency against the government, though it might not be enough to upset the AAP.

While public anger and disillusionment with the AAP is visible on Delhi streets, there is no wave in favour of the BJP either. The latter remains at a disadvantage due to its lackluster leadership in the capital. The party’s local leaders are no match for Kejriwal and his team. In fact, the BJP could have won this time, but it royally messed up — and I don’t see any surprise happening on 8 February. 

If all goes well, then the AAP’s three saviours — Muslims, Dalits and Women — will help the party sail through once again, provided no “miracle” is engineered like in Haryana and Maharashtra. 

(Ashutosh is a journalist and former politician with AAP. He was one of the founding members of the party. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)