What May Help Swing Delhi Elections in Favour of AAP?

Will Kejriwal's AAP maintain its stronghold against the BJP's electoral push in Delhi?

For the AAP, this particular election is more than just another Assembly poll.

(Photo: The Quint)

As Delhi gears up to vote on 5 February, the political stakes couldn’t be any higher for the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) contesting against its principal rival – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). For the AAP, this particular election is more than just another Assembly poll. With its leader, Arvind Kejriwal along with other key state party leaders battling alleged corruption charges, Kejriwal’s AAP is gambling its political legacy testing its popularity against a leaderless BJP (when viewed from Delhi’s electoral scene).

Amidst everything, some key questions loom large: Can the AAP’s model of empowerment based welfarism based on human capital development (improving upon on education, healthcare, and government-driven public services) compete against the BJP’s own brand of electoral welfarism based on entitlements?

Can Kejriwal defend his bastion one more time? Will the Congress –contesting against the AAP – split the popular vote and stage a Haryana 2.0 for AAP this time around? Or could this finally be the BJP’s moment to end a 27-year political drought in Delhi?

We will know soon.

On the competing model of welfarisms, the AAP vs the BJP, there is much to see and analyse. The AAP seems to have an upper hand in this regard given its focus on marginalised, vulnerable sections of the community, on government provided services, basic amenities, education and healthcare access.

As Delhiites gear up to exercise their democratic right, the spotlight falls on critical issues of governance and welfarism. Through the lens of the Access (In)Equality Index creating by our centre, CNES at OP Jindal Global University, we examine how this election transcends its regional contours, emerging as a broader commentary on leadership, ideology, and the trajectory of Indian politics.

Welfare Promises or Political Theatre? Delhi’s Challenges in Health, Education, and Economic Security

(Source: ECI)

With elections approaching in Delhi, both the AAP and the BJP are amplifying promises of welfare schemes targeting health, education, and socio-economic upliftment. The AAP has pledged free healthcare, expanded Mohalla clinics, and other initiatives like monthly deposit for women from Rs 1,000 to Rs 2,100.

The BJP counters with plans to give pension for senior citizens, introduce subsidy of Rs 500 on LPG cylinders, and implement affordable housing projects. However, these promises often remain lofty rhetoric, hampered by executional inefficiencies.

Delhi’s Mohalla clinics, while innovative, struggle with understaffing, subpar facilities, and inadequate capacity to meet the city's growing population needs. Similarly, Ayushman Bharat, though promising affordable healthcare, has only reached 25 percent as of the last NFHS survey which reflect households with at least one member insured.

Underscoring a glaring gap in addressing medical vulnerability, the AAP has not been able to drastically bring down out of pocket healthcare costs (even though some progress has been made in this regard compared to a pre-AAP era for Delhites).

Government anchored public education initiatives in Delhi have achieved remarkable success, with 100 percent of government schools equipped with functional internet facilities, according to the recent UDISE report. Additionally, the pupil-teacher ratio stands at an impressive 28:1, showcasing the region's commitment to ensuring quality education and leveraging technology for enhanced learning outcomes.

Source: AEI 2024 report

Such shortcomings align with findings from the Access (In)Equality Index (AEI) 2024, where Delhi ranks 3rd among Union Territories with a composite score of 0.53 While it shows significant progress in education with a score of 0.58 and strong digital resource penetration, socio-economic challenges persist.

Its healthcare access and socio-economic security indicators reflect room for improvement, emphasising the need for stronger safety nets and employment quality to enhance overall equality of opportunity.

Source: AEI Report 2024

These numbers reveal a stark disconnect between political promises and on-ground realities. Welfare schemes here are only serving as electoral tools, delivering short-term gains but lacking the frameworks necessary for sustainable impact.

Whoever forms the next government must move beyond headline-grabbing initiatives and prioritise robust, inclusive policies to address structural inequities. Delhi’s AEI performance underscores the urgency of bridging gaps in healthcare, education, and socio-economic security.

Abandoning political theatrics for genuine governance could transform these promises into tangible improvements in living standards, a commitment that voters deserve in Delhi’s evolving urban landscape.

Source: AEI Report 2024

Delhi faces notable challenges in socio-economic security despite its urban advantages. Its Worker Population Ratio (WPR) is 45.8 percent, questioning the correlation between urbanisation and workforce participation. High numbers of non-agricultural workers in Delhi lack social benefits, reflecting a significant gap in the social safety net. This leaves a considerable portion of the workforce vulnerable to risks like healthcare emergencies and income instability.

While smaller populations and administrative efficiency often correlate with better digital transaction rates, Delhi’s workforce engagement highlights an urgent need for policy interventions. Strengthening social protections and expanding benefits for urban workers are crucial to ensure resilience.

Swing Voters and Delhi’s Dual Mandate: AAP’s 2025 Challenge

Kejriwal’s evolution from an anti-corruption crusader to a pragmatic politician has often sparked polarized debates. Detractors label him a Machiavellian operator, far removed from the revolutionary he once promised to be. Yet, Kejriwal is the only leader to have consistently defeated Modi-Shah’s BJP in Delhi- a reality that continues to haunt the BJP as it eyes the capital.

For Modi too, this election isn’t just about governance; it’s a fight to reclaim pride erase years of electoral setbacks in Delhi and continue the winning streak after Haryana & Maharashtra state elections. However, the BJP’s struggle to break the 40 percent vote-share ceiling and its inability to field a compelling local leader remain persistent hurdles. Meanwhile, the Congress continues to wait in the shadows, hoping to exploit a fractured electorate.

Delhi’s voters have long displayed a unique electoral behaviour: favouring the BJP in Lok Sabha elections and the AAP in Vidhan Sabha polls. This distinct pattern reflects a dual mandate of endorsing BJP’s leadership at the Centre while trusting the AAP with the city’s governance.

As the 2025 Vidhan Sabha elections approach, the AAP faces the critical task of reuniting its coalition of swing voters who shifted allegiance to the BJP and Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The 2020 Vidhan Sabha elections were a masterclass in the AAP’s ability to harness Delhi’s fluid voter base. By tapping into discontent with national parties, it secured significant portions of the BJP’s upper-caste and OBC voters, as well as Congress’ traditional Dalit and Muslim support. For instance, a recent study shows that the BJP’s once-dominant hold over the upper-caste vote dropped sharply from 75 percent in 2019 to 54 percent in 2020, with much of the difference flowing to AAP. Similarly, AAP captured 47 percent of Dalit votes which traditionally has been a Congress bastion.

However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP may have lost a section of Upper Caste, OBC and Dalit voters to the BJP and the Congress also may have gained among Dalits and Muslims due to its alliance with the AAP. This swing underscores the complex interplay of issues at the national and local levels where voters balance aspirations for national leadership with expectations of efficient city governance.

(Source: ECI)

Economic anxieties remain a key driver of these shifts. AAP saw erosion across socio-economic classes, losing 37 percent of poor voters, 21 percent of middle-class voters, and 28 percent of upper-class supporters. While the BJP’s nationalistic and aspirational messaging appeals to upwardly mobile voters, the Congress’ focus on targeted welfare schemes resonates with economically vulnerable groups.

To regain its footing, AAP must recalibrate its strategy to address local issues head-on, from economic security to everyday urban concerns. Building trust among swing voters by reinforcing its governance credentials will be critical. In a city that straddles national and local priorities, swing voters hold the power to define Delhi’s political trajectory, making them the ultimate arbiters of the 2025 elections.

Shifting Priorities: How Delhi’s Voters Make Their Choices

As Delhi inches closer to the 2025 elections, the political landscape seems to be shaped by both past trends and emerging voter expectations. According to data from the CSDS 2020 survey, the AAP had established itself as a formidable force, with its welfare schemes like Mohalla Clinics and free bus rides leaving a lasting impact.

Over 67.6 percent of respondents then believed that the AAP deserved another chance, and Kejriwal was the clear choice for chief minister with a 55.5 percent preference rate. Fast forward to 2025, these numbers serve as a strong precursor to what might unfold, but there are key factors at play that could influence the outcome.

While the BJP continues to benefit from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's national appeal it is evident from the 30.2 percent of voters in 2020 who favoured the BJP based on his government’s work—the lack of a declared CM face for Delhi (something 56.3 percent of voters desired back in 2020) could still weaken its local traction.

The AAP, by contrast, remains firmly anchored in its governance model, with development and welfare schemes catering directly to the needs of Delhi’s citizens, an approach that was highly appreciated in 2020 but could just as sharply backfire in 2025. Issues like development, employment, and women’s safety, which dominated voter concerns in 2020, are likely to persist in 2025, giving the AAP’s delivery-oriented governance an edge.

However, in a city known for its dynamic political swings, the BJP's ability to counter this narrative with fresh strategies and local leadership will determine whether parity emerges or the status quo prevails. For now, the AAP, its model of welfarism, and electoral message appears to hold the fort and electoral advantage heading into 2025 polling and electoral results.

(Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of Inter-Disciplinary Studies, and Director of Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), OP Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford.

Ankur Singh is a Research Assistants with Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES) and members of the InfoSphere team. This is an opinion article, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)