BJP's Winning Formula: Women Voters & Welfare Schemes

The rise of women voters is nothing short of a revolution, but revolutions demand more than surface-level changes.

Women voters, often overlooked in most mainstream political analyses, are no longer just a numerical statistic in the electoral arithmetic gamesmanship of winning elections.

(Photo: PTI)

This is the second of a two-part reflective analysis drawn from the observations made in the BJP’s performance across recent Assembly elections. You can read the first part here.

India’s electoral history and political landscape is perhaps witnessing a tectonic shift, wheeled under the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and at its heart lies a ‘silent’, quiet, yet powerful revolution.

Women voters, often overlooked in most mainstream political analyses, are no longer just a numerical statistic in the electoral arithmetic gamesmanship of winning elections – they are now a key force behind driving pivotal changes in the political landscape, across Assembly and national-level elections.

This silent surge is not loud or ostentatious but is yet assertive and has profoundly altered how political parties craft their electoral strategies, design policies, prepare welfare-scheme pitches (before and after elections), envisioning a welfare-centered change in the governing dynamics of state-society relations.

Their rise as an electoral powerhouse has been gradual but unstoppable, with an ever-growing voter turnout and increasing independence in decision-making. While challenges like underrepresentation persist, the trajectory is clear: women are no longer just participants in democracy –they are its architects.

Women as Game-Changers in Mainstream Electoral Dynamics

The less highlighted, underplayed story of women voters in India is one of ascendance. Decades ago, they were observed a mere underrepresented segment, with turnout of women trailing far behind men’s. In recent elections, women have closed that gap – and in some cases, even surpassed men in voter turnout percentages, across regions, caste, class and other socially defined groups.

In 2024, a staggering 312 million women cast their votes, eclipsing male voter turnout in 137 constituencies. This wasn’t just a numerical achievement; it marked a shift in the political consciousness of women as voters with agency, an independent voice, warranting change (as a constituency of its own) for better well-being and economic opportunity.

This transformation extends beyond turnout. A 2014 survey revealed that 70 percent of women voters made independent decisions, breaking free from familial influences or what their spouses were doing – preferring in choice in elections.

By 2024, this independent constituency’s autonomy was on full display, with women prioritising issues like welfare, safety, and financial security, reshaping electoral priorities nationwide. Their assertive role has also helped take the communal, ideological rhetoric (toned higher during elections) to be lesser emphasised by political parties, including the BJP, which has tried to ‘appease’ women voters through a targeted policy of welfare populism.

Take Maharashtra’s 2024 Assembly elections as a case in point. The BJP-led alliance’s Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, offering Rs 1,500 monthly to women, wasn’t just another welfare scheme to woo the women voters but a well-thought-out and carefully enacted strategy.

This report by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests that women who have benefited from the schemes of the Central or the state government are reported to stick with the incumbent and less likely to get deviated from the major issue driving the elections to vote for narrow, caste-based parties.

Similarly, Jharkhand’s Maiya Yojana provided Rs 1,000 monthly to women, helping the JMM-Congress alliance consolidate its base. These programmes were not mere giveaways; they were lifelines for families struggling with rising costs, and their electoral impact was undeniable.

But, while women’s votes have tipped the scales in state and national elections, the question of representation looms large. Women today only constitute only 13.6 percent of the Lok Sabha – an alarming figure when compared to the global average of 25 percent. The Women Reservation Bill did promise to change that by reserving 33 percent of seats for women, but its delayed implementation casts a shadow over this progressive reform which we shall discuss later.

Politics Reimagined: The Women-Centric Turn

Political parties, long accustomed to ignoring the unique needs of women voters, have been forced to adapt. Welfare schemes like the Ujjwala Yojana, which provided subsidised cooking gas, and other targeted initiatives offered by the central and many state governments, reflect how women are increasingly driving political agendas. These programmes are more than just policy measures – they are symbols of the growing electoral clout of women.

The National Election Studies 2019 data speak volumes, according to the survey conducted by the Lokniti Programme of the CSDS, which suggests that beneficiaries of the Ujjwala scheme were 4.6 percentage points more likely to report voting for the BJP, 2.7 percentage points more likely to say that the BJP works for the poor, and 4.5 percentage points more satisfied with the Central government.

It is a win-win.

Similarly, in recent elections, like those in Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and even in Haryana in 2024, cash transfer schemes swayed many undecided women voters. Political parties now recognise that ignoring this new emerging voter base could mean electoral disaster.

Still, these temporal initiatives, as important as they are, often fall short on addressing systemic issues – such as the structural inequities and inadequacies that affect women well-being. Welfare schemes are effective for providing short-term relief or heighten electoral expectations, but they cannot replace long-term, deeper reforms through a cultural shift anchored by greater (public) investment education, employment, and healthcare.

Despite the popularity of conditional and unconditional cash transfer programmes – now active in 14 states and reaching 20 percent of India’s adult female population, they risk being a simple, band-aid solution that fails to address deeper structural problems, while imposing fiscal prolificacy questions.

The graph suggests a correlation between increased budget allocations for women-centric schemes and a steady rise in budget spending since 2014-2024 and the ruling party's electoral success. 

(Source: Election Commission of India.)

What's needed is a decisive shift from transactional short-term welfare populist politics to transformational policies benefiting women, across states, and socio-economic divides.

For every cash transfer scheme that provides temporary relief, there needs to be proportional increases in social and public investment for girls/women participation in vocational training programmes, higher education, better quality of schools for girls, and safer workplaces and mobility conditions for women, that needs to be put in place.

The Road Ahead

The Women’s Reservation Bill passed in the 17th Lok Sabha was lauded as a landmark move to reserve one-third of seats in the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies for women.

However, its implementation was deliberately stalled by linking it to the completion of the census and delimitation exercises, rendering it a mere publicity stunt. These prerequisites, unnecessary and politically motivated, created roadblocks that ensured no immediate gains for women’s representation in Parliament.

Critics argue that the bill was strategically timed before the 2024 elections to project a progressive image and gather headlines while doing little to address the pressing issue of gender inequality in political leadership. Women have already demonstrated their transformative power as voters, reshaping electoral outcomes across the nation.

For this vision to materialise, Indian politics and parties must go beyond symbolic gestures. Political parties need to prioritise structural reforms such as gender-sensitive budgeting, mentorship programmes for women leaders, and stronger anti-discrimination laws in workplaces. These steps, coupled with immediate enforcement of the Women’s Reservation Bill, are critical for building a democracy where women are equal stakeholders, not sidelined by procedural delays.

The rise of women voters in India is nothing short of a revolution, but revolutions demand more than surface-level changes. Welfare schemes like cash transfers have their place, offering immediate relief to millions, but they are band-aid solutions. Deeper wounds such as poverty, systemic inequality, and gaps in state capacity require long-term investments in education, healthcare, and economic opportunities.

As women continue to rise as a political force, their influence must translate into leadership, policymaking, and governance.

(Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of Inter-Disciplinary Studies, and Director of Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), OP Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford. Ankur Singh is a Research Assistant with the Centre for New Economics Studies, OP Jindal Global University and a team member of its InfoSphere initiative. This is an opinion article, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)