With PM Modi Likely To Skip ASEAN, Diwali Diplomacy Won't Lead to a Trump Meet

The ASEAN Summit could have been the perfect opportunity for India-US bilateral talks, experts tell The Quint.

Sakshat Chandok
World
Published:
<div class="paragraphs"><p>PM Modi and President Trump were earlier expected to attend the ASEAN and East Asia Summits in Kuala Lumpur from 26-28 October. However, the Malaysian PM has now confirmed that Modi will not be able to attend in person.&nbsp;</p></div>
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PM Modi and President Trump were earlier expected to attend the ASEAN and East Asia Summits in Kuala Lumpur from 26-28 October. However, the Malaysian PM has now confirmed that Modi will not be able to attend in person. 

(Photo: Vibhushita Singh/The Quint) 

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump exchanged Diwali greetings during a phone call on Wednesday, 22 October, in the backdrop of recent diplomatic strains between New Delhi and Washington. The two leaders were expected to meet this week during the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) Summit in Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur, along with a slew of other world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

However, over the past few days, speculation has been rife over whether PM Modi will attend the summit in person.

Days after Malaysia's Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said PM Modi was "likely" to attend the summit, the country's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim posted on Facebook on Thursday, 23 October that Modi had informed him in that he would be attending virtually instead as the summit coincides with Diwali celebrations in India.

India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is yet to confirm either of the two statements.

Trump, on the other hand, is expected to fly to Kuala Lumpur on 26 October to oversee the formal peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia—two countries between which he claimed to have brokered a ceasefire in July this year.

Could ASEAN Summit Have Been India's Chance to Thaw Ties?

The summit from 26-28 October could potentially have been the perfect opportunity for the two leaders to hold bilateral talks on the sidelines and tide over deep-rooted issues plaguing India-US ties over the last few months. Most recently, the US President's insistence that New Delhi desist from buying Russian oil has further dented their relations.

The differences had led to Trump imposing 50 percent tariffs on Indian products and cosying up to Pakistan.

"One certainly hopes that there will be a thawing of ties," Sumit Ganguly, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, tells The Quint. "One never knows because so much in the Trump administration is not transparent. Also, we don't know about what progress, if any, has been made on trade negotiations."

Trade talks, led on the Indian side by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, have been taking place in full swing—especially after the 50 percent tariffs from the US came into force. While Goyal has consistently claimed that the talks were taking place in a "very cordial environment", he hasn't yet specified a deadline by which they will culminate.

"Given what we are seeing in other instances, like China, in the end Trump just wants to make a deal," says Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, adding, "All his statements on India are nothing but negotiating tactics."

Joshi says that the real question is about the skill with which India can negotiate with the US delegation.

"By now, our negotiators would've been able to figure out what the Americans are after, what we can compromise on, and what we must remain firm about. However, there is no doubt that we are the weaker party. The US has more leverage than we do. If you're a party like China that has a lot of leverage, you can afford to play tough. But we don't have that luxury."
Manoj Joshi

Recent Bitter Exchanges Leave a Sour Taste 

The Diwali phone call comes in the backdrop of differences between Trump's recent statements on India, particularly his purported conversations with PM Modi, and the official stand taken by the MEA.

Last week, Trump claimed that PM Modi had conveyed his plans to reduce the import of Russian oil over the phone "soon" but not "immediately".

"I was not happy that India was buying oil, and [PM Modi] assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump said while speaking to the press at the White House on 15 October, flanked by US Ambassador to India-designate Sergio Gor.

Without confirming or denying, the MEA said it was "not aware" of any such conversation.

"I am not aware of any conversation yesterday between the two leaders," said MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal during a press conference on 16 October.

Once again, on 19 October, Trump reiterated that PM Modi had assured him that India would stop purchasing Russian oil. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, the US President said: "I spoke with Prime Minister Modi of India, and he said he's not going to be doing the Russian oil thing."

However, when informed by a reporter about India's assertion that no such phone call took place between the two leaders on 15 October, Trump said, "But if they want to say that, then they'll just continue to pay massive tariffs, and they don't want to do that."

Experts say the terse exchanges could have influenced the meeting between Trump and Modi if it had been held in Kuala Lumpur.

"India's attempts at maintaining strategic autonomy have been threatened by Trump making it clear that 'you are either with us or against us'," senior journalist Sanjay Kapoor tells The Quint.

"I don’t think Modi can visualise a world where he’s described as being 'anti-US'. At the same time, PM Modi seems to be bewildered by what the US president will do next. So the question that’s being asked in political circles is, what does Trump know that we don't?"
Sanjay Kapoor
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Diwali Greetings Soften the Differences. Or Do They? 

However, the differences were, at least in part, cushioned by Diwali greetings exchanged between the two leaders. However, certain phrases used by both sides even amid the greetings stood out like a soar thumb—signaling that all is far from well.

PM Modi on Wednesday, 22 October, took to X to thank President Trump for extending Diwali greetings during a phone call. However, his reference to putting up a "united front against terrorism" in the message seemed to subtly reference India's discomfort with the US' growing closeness with Pakistan.

"Thank you, President Trump, for your phone call and warm Diwali greetings. On this festival of lights, may our two great democracies continue to illuminate the world with hope and stand united against terrorism in all its forms," PM Modi took to X to say.

Similarly, during Diwali celebrations at the White House on Tuesday, 21 October, while Trump called PM Modi a "great friend", he claimed that the two leaders spoke about several issues, including three—contentious, to say the least—of which no mention has been made either by Modi or the MEA so far:

1. Trade: "I just spoke to your prime minister today. We had a great conversation. We talked about trade. We talked about a lot of things, but mostly the world of trade. He’s very interested in that."

2. Russian oil: "He (PM Modi) is not going to buy much oil from Russia. He wants to see that war (Russia-Ukraine) end as much as I do. And as you know, they're not going to be buying too much oil. So, they've got it way back, and they're continuing to cut it way back."

3. India-Pakistan: "We (Trump and Modi) did talk a little while ago about let’s have no wars with Pakistan. Seven planes shot down. They (India and Pakistan) were ready to go. And I called them up, I said, you go to war and we’re not doing a trade deal. And they said, well, what does one thing have to do with the other? I said, it has a lot."

Trump made these statements in the presence of Indian Ambassador to the US Vinay Kwatra, FBI chief Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, US Ambassador to India-designate Gor, and members of the Indian American community.

Quad-BRICS To Come Face-To-Face: India Caught in the Middle

Yet another irritant in the India-US ties that would have come to the fore glaringly had Modi decided to attend the ASEAN Summit is New Delhi's membership of both the Quad (India, US, Australia, Japan) and BRICS—several member nations of which will be represented in Kuala Lumpur.

The two groupings have often been antagonistic towards each other given the general nature of their membership. While one includes the US and several of its partners, the other comprises China, Russia, and its latest entrant Iran, which joined in January 2024. India is the only common member of both groupings.

Signaling his opposition to BRICS, Trump last week called the grouping an "attack on the US dollar" and reiterated his threat of imposing 100 percent tariffs on all the bloc's members.

"I told anybody who wants to be in BRICS, that's fine, but we're going to put tariffs on your nation. Everybody dropped out. They're all dropping out of BRICS," Trump had said at the White House last week while hosting Argentinan Prime Minister Javier Milei.

His threats stem from the groupings "de-dollarisation" efforts aimed at using an alternative currency to reduce reliance on the US dollar in global trade.

However, New Delhi has distanced itself from such efforts, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stating that India did not have any plans to undermine the role of the dollar. "Regarding the role of the dollar, we are realistic. We have no issue with the dollar... We have no interest in undermining the dollar," Jaishankar had said in a statement in March this year.

Sumit Ganguly says that India's decision to not endorse BRICS' de-dollarisation approach is wise, and in line with New Delhi's approach to reconcile the two groupings.

"The one thing that India has not been enthusiastic about, and quite wisely so, is that it hasn't joined the chorus about the alternative currency to the dollar. It is quite astute on India's part to signal that while it is a member of BRICS, it doesn't wholeheartedly endorse every feature of the grouping."
Sumit Ganguly

Despite India's efforts at walking the middle path between the Quad and BRICS, its resolve is predicted to be tested in 2026 when New Delhi will take over as the Chair of BRICS and host a summit for its member states. It is also the year in which the Quad Summit will be held after a gap of two years.

PM Modi had reportedly invited Quad leaders as chief guests at the 2024 Republic Day celebrations during which the summit was also slated to be held in New Delhi. However, the invitation was turned down by the then US President Joe Biden amid allegations of the Indian government's role in an assassination plot against Sikhs for Justice leader Gurpatwant Pannun. The summit was held that year in the US instead. Similarly, in 2025, efforts at holding a Quad Summit in New Delhi were derailed by Trump's imposition of 50 percent tariffs and his claim to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following Operation Sindoor.

"India will face a major challenge while hosting the BRICS Summit next year," says Sanjay Kapoor.

"The composition of BRICS is mostly anti-American. Also, with Trump weaponising tariffs against India, it will de difficult for PM Modi to continue with his non-ideological stance that the policy of strategic autonomy represents. Trump's hard foreign policy would challenge that. So a lot will depend on whether India chooses to pick up the gauntlet and look Trump in the eye."
Sanjay Kapoor

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