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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump exchanged Diwali greetings during a phone call on Wednesday, 22 October, in the backdrop of recent diplomatic strains between New Delhi and Washington. The two leaders were expected to meet this week during the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) Summit in Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur, along with a slew of other world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
However, over the past few days, speculation has been rife over whether PM Modi will attend the summit in person.
India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is yet to confirm either of the two statements.
Trump, on the other hand, is expected to fly to Kuala Lumpur on 26 October to oversee the formal peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia—two countries between which he claimed to have brokered a ceasefire in July this year.
The summit from 26-28 October could potentially have been the perfect opportunity for the two leaders to hold bilateral talks on the sidelines and tide over deep-rooted issues plaguing India-US ties over the last few months. Most recently, the US President's insistence that New Delhi desist from buying Russian oil has further dented their relations.
The differences had led to Trump imposing 50 percent tariffs on Indian products and cosying up to Pakistan.
"One certainly hopes that there will be a thawing of ties," Sumit Ganguly, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, tells The Quint. "One never knows because so much in the Trump administration is not transparent. Also, we don't know about what progress, if any, has been made on trade negotiations."
"Given what we are seeing in other instances, like China, in the end Trump just wants to make a deal," says Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, adding, "All his statements on India are nothing but negotiating tactics."
Joshi says that the real question is about the skill with which India can negotiate with the US delegation.
The Diwali phone call comes in the backdrop of differences between Trump's recent statements on India, particularly his purported conversations with PM Modi, and the official stand taken by the MEA.
Last week, Trump claimed that PM Modi had conveyed his plans to reduce the import of Russian oil over the phone "soon" but not "immediately".
Without confirming or denying, the MEA said it was "not aware" of any such conversation.
"I am not aware of any conversation yesterday between the two leaders," said MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal during a press conference on 16 October.
Once again, on 19 October, Trump reiterated that PM Modi had assured him that India would stop purchasing Russian oil. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, the US President said: "I spoke with Prime Minister Modi of India, and he said he's not going to be doing the Russian oil thing."
However, when informed by a reporter about India's assertion that no such phone call took place between the two leaders on 15 October, Trump said, "But if they want to say that, then they'll just continue to pay massive tariffs, and they don't want to do that."
Experts say the terse exchanges could have influenced the meeting between Trump and Modi if it had been held in Kuala Lumpur.
"India's attempts at maintaining strategic autonomy have been threatened by Trump making it clear that 'you are either with us or against us'," senior journalist Sanjay Kapoor tells The Quint.
However, the differences were, at least in part, cushioned by Diwali greetings exchanged between the two leaders. However, certain phrases used by both sides even amid the greetings stood out like a soar thumb—signaling that all is far from well.
"Thank you, President Trump, for your phone call and warm Diwali greetings. On this festival of lights, may our two great democracies continue to illuminate the world with hope and stand united against terrorism in all its forms," PM Modi took to X to say.
Similarly, during Diwali celebrations at the White House on Tuesday, 21 October, while Trump called PM Modi a "great friend", he claimed that the two leaders spoke about several issues, including three—contentious, to say the least—of which no mention has been made either by Modi or the MEA so far:
1. Trade: "I just spoke to your prime minister today. We had a great conversation. We talked about trade. We talked about a lot of things, but mostly the world of trade. He’s very interested in that."
2. Russian oil: "He (PM Modi) is not going to buy much oil from Russia. He wants to see that war (Russia-Ukraine) end as much as I do. And as you know, they're not going to be buying too much oil. So, they've got it way back, and they're continuing to cut it way back."
3. India-Pakistan: "We (Trump and Modi) did talk a little while ago about let’s have no wars with Pakistan. Seven planes shot down. They (India and Pakistan) were ready to go. And I called them up, I said, you go to war and we’re not doing a trade deal. And they said, well, what does one thing have to do with the other? I said, it has a lot."
Trump made these statements in the presence of Indian Ambassador to the US Vinay Kwatra, FBI chief Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, US Ambassador to India-designate Gor, and members of the Indian American community.
Yet another irritant in the India-US ties that would have come to the fore glaringly had Modi decided to attend the ASEAN Summit is New Delhi's membership of both the Quad (India, US, Australia, Japan) and BRICS—several member nations of which will be represented in Kuala Lumpur.
Signaling his opposition to BRICS, Trump last week called the grouping an "attack on the US dollar" and reiterated his threat of imposing 100 percent tariffs on all the bloc's members.
"I told anybody who wants to be in BRICS, that's fine, but we're going to put tariffs on your nation. Everybody dropped out. They're all dropping out of BRICS," Trump had said at the White House last week while hosting Argentinan Prime Minister Javier Milei.
His threats stem from the groupings "de-dollarisation" efforts aimed at using an alternative currency to reduce reliance on the US dollar in global trade.
However, New Delhi has distanced itself from such efforts, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stating that India did not have any plans to undermine the role of the dollar. "Regarding the role of the dollar, we are realistic. We have no issue with the dollar... We have no interest in undermining the dollar," Jaishankar had said in a statement in March this year.
Sumit Ganguly says that India's decision to not endorse BRICS' de-dollarisation approach is wise, and in line with New Delhi's approach to reconcile the two groupings.
Despite India's efforts at walking the middle path between the Quad and BRICS, its resolve is predicted to be tested in 2026 when New Delhi will take over as the Chair of BRICS and host a summit for its member states. It is also the year in which the Quad Summit will be held after a gap of two years.
PM Modi had reportedly invited Quad leaders as chief guests at the 2024 Republic Day celebrations during which the summit was also slated to be held in New Delhi. However, the invitation was turned down by the then US President Joe Biden amid allegations of the Indian government's role in an assassination plot against Sikhs for Justice leader Gurpatwant Pannun. The summit was held that year in the US instead. Similarly, in 2025, efforts at holding a Quad Summit in New Delhi were derailed by Trump's imposition of 50 percent tariffs and his claim to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following Operation Sindoor.
"India will face a major challenge while hosting the BRICS Summit next year," says Sanjay Kapoor.