3 Changes Expected in India-Canada Ties Under Mark Carney As Compared to Trudeau
For one, Carney is believed to view India-Canada ties through a more lenient prism than his predecessor Trudeau.
advertisement
"Mark Carney is considered to be a pragmatic, corporate-experienced economic leader—and that bodes well for resetting India-Canada relations," Reeta Tremblay, a political scientist based in Canada, said days after the country elected its new leader.
At a time when India's geopolitical relationships have veered into realms of uncertainty – most recently with Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack as well as with the US, India's largest trading partner, as tariffs threaten to play spoilsport – Carney's victory in the recent Canadian election is sure to gladden many a face in South Block.
3 Possible Changes in India-Canada Ties Under Mark Carney
The direction that the India-Canada relationship will take with Mark Carney in command can be looked at through three viewpoints.
1. Carney's speeches signal softening of ties
To start with, Carney is believed to view India-Canada ties through a more lenient prism that his predecessor Justin Trudeau, who had publicly implicated India in the assassination of Nijjar.
During an election rally in March, he had said that there were significant opportunities to "re-build" the relationship with India.
"If I am prime minister, I look forward to the opportunity to do that," said Carney, who is the former governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada. "There needs to be a shared sense of values around that commercial relationship."
He also said that strains in the relationship can be mutually addressed – signaling a far-more tempered approach as opposed to Trudeau. In fact, during an interview with Toronto Star in February when he was asked why the Canadian public should believe that it won't be the same line of functioning under Carney as it was under Trudeau, he said:
According to Reeta Tremblay, Carney's subdued approach to questions regarding bitterness with India can be explained through one simple fact: Canada's precarious domestic polity and economic concerns simply do not allow diasporic issues to dominate its public discourse.
"We saw this during the election campaign repeatedly," she told The Quint.
2. Bid to diversify Canada's economic relationships
Another lens through which India-Canada ties can be looked at is through the vastly tumultuous economic circumstances that both countries find themselves in following the Donald Trump government's threat to impose reciprocal tariffs – 26 percent on India and 25 percent on Canada.
While Trump has paused the tariffs for a period of 90 days, both countries have to have a contingency plan in place to deal with the economic fallout once the 'grace period' ends.
Since Trump's threats have dampened the nationalistic sentiments of Canadians by-and-large, many analysts argue that the election was fought based on who would be the best person to safeguard the country's sovereignty and not bog down to economic threats from the US.
"This election was a contest between two parties – the Liberals and the Conservatives, with voters deciding which party leader could deliver on Canadian existential issues," Tremblay said.
It is in this regard that one can expect a rethink to ties between India and Canada.
"What Canada will be looking to do is to diversify our trading relationships with like-minded countries, and there are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India," he had said while addressing the press in March.
Given that Carney is a seasoned economist – as opposed to career politicians like Trudeau and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, Carney's main rival in the 2025 election – he would want to repair ties with India because it's just good for business.
"Following Carney's victory, the circumstances have changed drastically," says Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). "Given the dicey economic climate, both India and Canada will have much to gain by accessing to each other's markets."
A key step in this regard would be restarting negotiations around the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).
Talks regarding the CEPA between New Delhi and Ottawa had started in 2010, with a key focus on eliminating tariff barriers on most sections of bilateral trade. While 10 sessions of talks have been held so far, the negotiations were stalled in 2023 after Trudeau's charges against the Indian government.
"Canada’s top and immediate priorities are trade and investment," Tremblay told The Quint.
3. The Khalistan question & coalition dynamics
The biggest irritant in ties between New Delhi and Ottawa for decades has been the role of pro-Khalistan extremists in the mainstream political discourse in Canada.
With Mark Carney in power, to what extent will space be ceded to the Khalistani discourse regarding ties with India?
First of all, there is a fundamental difference between Trudeau and Carney in this regard – which can best be understood through the coalition matrix.
Trudeau had signed a 'supply-and-confidence' agreement in March 2022 with Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP) until he lost his seat in the 2025 election.
With the signing of the contract in 2022, the NDP, with its 24 members in Canada's House of Commons, had vowed to support the Trudeau government, which had 154 MPs – 15 short of the majority.
The agreement, however, was revoked after Singh withdrew his support in September last year over negative approval ratings of Trudeau amid rising costs of necessities a major housing crisis.
However, the new government – with its 169 seats in the 343-member House – is better poised to govern than Trudeau, and is expected to be much less dependent on outside support, least of all the NDP, which were decimated in the election with only seven seats, down from 24 in the previous polls.
"Since Trudeau was overwhelmingly dependent on the NDP to remain in power, he had to raise issues that would placate Khalistani supporters. Mark Carney doesn't have to do that – he just has to say that there is a judicial process undergoing in the matter," Manoj Joshi told The Quint.
Further, Carney has not referred to pro-Khalistan activists or the Nijjar killing on the campaign trail, as opposed to Trudeau, who wouldn't miss an opportunity to take a dig at the Indian government during rallies and speeches.
"It would seem that Carney is following the international law principle of jus cogens of prohibition of racial discrimination and crimes against humanity," international lawyer Yashaswini Basu said while speaking to The Quint.
Jus cogens refers to fundamental and universally accepted norms of international law from which there should be no deviations.
However, despite the optimism following Carney's victory, it would be naivete to assume that the Nijjar murder investigation will merely be whisked away.
What will differ, however, is the modus operandi of dealing with it under Carney as compared to Trudeau.
"Although, given the shifting global order it is difficult to predict, one can nevertheless anticipate that Canada will follow the example of the US, the UK, and Australia to pursue the Nijjar issue through background channels as well as letting the matter work through the Canadian Justice system," says Reeta Tremblay.
Meanwhile, multiple media reports have stated that the two countries have already begun efforts to reinstate their respective High Commissioners in each other's countries.
Following Carney's victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had taken to X to congratulate the former banker and called for the strengthening ties.
"Congratulations @MarkJCarney on your election as the Prime Minister of Canada and to the Liberal Party on their victory. India and Canada are bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our partnership and unlock greater opportunities for our people," the prime minister said.
The Canadian prime minister, in an initial show of solidarity, had also taken to X to condemn the "senseless and shocking act of violence" in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam on 22 April.
"I am horrified by the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, a senseless and shocking act of violence that has killed and injured innocent civilians and tourists. Canada strongly condemns this terrorist attack. We offer our condolences to the victims and their families," he took to X to say.