US-Canada Rift: Can the Special Relationship Survive Trump 2.0?

Mark Carney is cautiously optimistic, but he knows Canada is dealing with a mercurial Trump and a MAGA-fied US.

Mark Carney is cautiously optimistic, given the new tone of Donald Trump, but he knows—as do most Canadians—that his country will still be dealing with a mercurial president and a reckless administration beholden to the MAGA base.   

(Photo:Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

Canada’s upcoming federal election holds great interest for the world’s most populous and powerful democracies. There’s already been plenty of drama, exemplified by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US president Donald Trump’s turbulent relationship with Justin Trudeau, the former Canadian prime minister.

While Trudeau is gone, the drama is far from over. Will the Conservatives win in Canada on 28 April, or will the Liberals, following an astonishing rebound in the polls, manage to retain power? 

Modi and Trump are undoubtedly rooting for the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre. But the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, are putting up a strong fight, having capitalised on the anti-Americanism unleashed by Trump’s tariffs and his threats to annex Canada. That has even given them a lead, which would have been unthinkable just weeks ago.

Modi and Trump will be disappointed if the Conservatives lose, but at least they won’t have to deal with Trudeau. 

A Growing Divide

No matter who wins, we cannot overstate the damage that Trump 2.0 has done to the special US-Canada bond. The two countries have much in common.

Canadians may beg to differ these days, but it’s true that outsiders can have a hard time distinguishing between native-born Americans and Canadians. Like the British, South Africans, Australians, or Irish, the North American neighbours share accents that sets them apart from native English speakers in other regions. Australians and New Zealanders are similarly indistinguishable.

On a few occasions, when I mistook a Canadian for an American (or vice versa), none of them was offended. It is different now. Alarmed by the unprovoked attacks on their sovereignty, and incensed by the tariffs, Canadians have been saying—often, loudly—that they want to be no part of the US. And for Canadians, unlike their brash neighbours, being loud is unusual.   

Is that a difference? Sure, but all such differences are superficial. There’s so much that unites the US and Canada—language, culture, geography, history, cuisine, and even their experience with immigration, which goes back a long way. North America’s first gurdwara was built in 1905 in Golden, British Columbia, and the first Hindu temple was erected in 1906 in San Francisco. 

The list of notable Canadians in the US is long, and they include South Asians. TV journalist and anchor Ali Velshi, actress Maitreyi Ramakrishnan (she starred in Netflix’s Never Have I Ever), and Princeton mathematician Manjul Bhargava (a Fields Medal winner) are just three examples. 

Now, thanks to Trump 2.0, we’re not only in a different era but in uncharted territory. 

Of all the bizarre developments in the last few months, none has been more baffling than this rupture between the US and Canada. The economic damage caused by tariffs will be difficult to undo, at least in the short term.

Canada is America’s second biggest trading partner (after Mexico), and there’s no troubling export-import imbalance. In 2024, the US exports to Canada amounted to $349.4 billion, while its imports from Canada added up to $412.7 billion.   

Can the Relationship be Repaired?

“It’s clear the US is no longer a reliable partner,” Carney said bluntly last week. Incidentally, Carney, who earned his Bachelor’s degree in economics from Harvard University, also has ties to the US. 

More recently, Trump has softened his approach, and his first phone conversation with Carney was respectful, even hopeful. It wasn’t long ago that he condescendingly referred to Trudeau as the “governor” of the 51st American state.

Carney is cautiously optimistic, given the new tone, but he knows—as do most Canadians—that his country will still be dealing with a mercurial president and an overweening, reckless administration beholden to the MAGA base.   

Trump’s plan to create a 51st state is a non-starter, since at least 90 percent of Canadians have no use for such fantasies. Worse, because of anti-US sentiments, Canadians are avoiding trips to the US and boycotting American-made products.

All this is upsetting to people on both sides of the border, including the Liberals, although their political fortunes would not have revived without the crisis. The Conservatives have even said that Trump wants the Liberals to win! 

Canada’s population is a little over 40 million, making the US population about 8.5 times larger. The US is smaller in size, and its northern border—at 5,525 miles—is the longest border between two nations. Canada’s rich natural resources, as Trudeau and others pointed out, have made it a target for Trump 2.0’s imperialist goals (Greenland and Panama are other targets). 

A Shared Future Despite Political Turmoil

But here’s the rub for the Republicans. Even if they accept the 47th president’s twisted reasoning, the 51st state would be a disaster for their party.

It’s no secret that Canada is more closely aligned with Blue America than Red America, politically speaking. Being slightly more populated than California (the most populous US state), Canada would have the most electoral votes in the reshaped nation, giving the Democrats a big advantage.

Leaving aside such hypothetical scenarios, let us hope the US and Canada will repair their relationship in the near future. Given their long friendship, it would be a shame if they didn’t. 

The US is often described as a melting pot, rather than a mosaic like Canada. Today, however, the truth is more complicated, and the neighbours are more alike than different. As two of the most immigrant-friendly nations, they have been learning from each other’s experiences, which include the civil rights struggle and policies like multiculturalism and the points-based system.  

One could argue that the salad bowl, with its mixed ingredients, is a better metaphor to describe Canada or the US. Food metaphors, despite their limitations, can provide insights. For instance, Shashi Tharoor’s metaphor for India—a thali—does capture its uniqueness. 

If we go back in US history, the melting pot meant that sometimes immigrants, to avoid prejudice and discrimination, masked their origins by changing their names, background details, and even their religion. That’s no longer true. We take heterogeneity for granted, and integration in society is seen as a healthier alternative to total assimilation. 

This brings us to the crux of what Trump 2.0 (and the MAGA movement, more broadly) is really about. But their ham-fisted attempts to unravel multiculturalism and a more inclusive, equal society will eventually fail—because most Americans, especially young Americans, have no interest in turning the clock back. And you can’t drag them there if they refuse to follow.  

In the 1960s, during a time of upheaval, the US was an inspiration to countries like Canada. Now, as the US goes through a period of turmoil and regression, it’s Canada that is the beacon. 

(Murali Kamma is a managing editor and writer based in Atlanta, Georgia. This is an opinion article, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)