Delhi Elections: On Polling Day, 3 Big Factors Will Decide Who Wins Which Seat

Hatred for one section is a key factor driving support for the BJP in this election and its not communal.

The Haryana and Maharashtra results would come as an encouraging sign for AAP in Delhi. 

(Photo: Altered by The Quint)

Narendra Modi or Arvind Kejriwal? Another term for Aam Aadmi Party or end of Bharatiya Janata Party's Vanvaas? Is Congress a spent force in Delhi or can it revive? These are some of the questions that the people of Delhi will answer as they vote on 5 February for the Assembly elections. The results will be declared on Saturday, 8 February.

By most accounts, the campaign has been underwhelming compared to the 2015, 2020 or 2013 Assembly elections. In such a scenario, what are the factors that are likely to shape who wins and who loses?

There are three aspects to this.

1. Anti-Poor Hatred Driving Consolidation for BJP

While there are no doubt questions to be asked about AAP's decade-long rule in Delhi, it is also true that a big part of the anti-AAP sentiment also comes from hatred for the poor.

"The poor are greedy and want freebies", "(Arvind) Kejriwal is making the poor lazy", "Only jhuggi jhopdi votes matter" are some of the comments one hears from people living in housing societies and posh colonies - from Paschim Vihar in the West to Patpargaj in the East and from Rohini in the North to Vasant Kunj in the South.

The degree of consolidation of this section behind BJP is almost unprecedented, definitely much more than the past six Assembly elections in Delhi.

Even in 2020, BJP lost some of the seats with a higher concentration of posh localities and housing societies with very narrow margins - Adarsh Nagar (1589 votes), Shalimar Bagh (3440), Kasturba Nagar (3165), Patparganj (3207), Krishna Nagar (3995), Shahdara (5294). There are many other seats with similar demographic profiles where the BJP lost by less than 15,000 votes.

These are margins that the BJP can overcome merely by ensuring complete consolidation and a higher turnout in well-off areas and some incremental gains in poorer pockets in the same seats.

The BJP has been working very closely with RWAs at every stage in the election - from pushing its narratives in RWA WhatsApp groups, organising meetings between residents and candidates, to distributing voter slips and mobilisation for polling day.

AAP's support among rich and upper middle class voters has taken a hit. It is no longer seen as a party of change. Instead labels like "sheeshmahal" have given the impression that is corrupt. Another narrative that is doing the rounds among these sections is that it will benefit Delhi to have the same party in power at the Centre and state.

The exception to this may be certain individual MLAs like Saurabh Bhardwaj from Greater Kailash.

However, the problem for BJP is that this section is only a very limited part of Delhi's population.

According to the 2020 Lokniti-CSDS survey, only 16 percent of the people sampled said that they live in " Posh area/Apartment/Kothi/DDA HIG or MIG/Government flat Type 4

or above". As many as 53 percent said they lived in a "less developed area but with pakka housing" and 17 percent said they live in a "slum like area" and 6 percent said they live in a "jhuggi jhopdi".

Very few seats are purely middle class and upper middle class and have pockets of other voters as well.

So even if the BJP consolidates 90 percent of the housing society/posh colony electorate, this may not yield gains beyond half a dozen seats.

2. AAP's Welfare Schemes vs BJP's Organisational Strength

As discussed above, 76 percent of Delhi's population live in "less developed areas" or "slum like area" or "jhuggi jhopdis". An additional five percent stay in LIG government flats and 3-4 percent in Delhi's rural areas. AAP has done very well in this entire chunk of voters but its support isn't uniform and governed by concentration of communities.

In the last election, AAP did better in areas with a higher concentration of Dalits, Muslims and migrants while the BJP did make gains in areas with more Jat, Gujjar and non-migrant Upper Caste voters. BJP also did comparatively well in East and Northeast Delhi due to communal polarisation.

AAP's popularity has maintained to a great extent, mainly due to its welfare schemes.

At a time when inflation is high and proper jobs aren't easy to come by, AAP's welfare schemes like cheaper electricity and water supply, free bus services for women, cheap healthcare and schooling do provide relief to the poor and lower middle class.

More than the election promises, it is the existing schemes that are driving support for AAP.

3. Community and Seat-Specific Dynamics

The dynamics within Delhi's demographic groups have witnessed some changes since the 2020 elections. The BJP has made some gains among Purvanchali voters and to a lesser extent among Dalits. On the other hand, it is facing some losses among Jat voters. Then the communal polarisation in Northeast Delhi has reduced compared to 2020. But this factor cuts both ways. On one hand, it has brought BJP-held seats like Karawal Nagar and Rohtas Nagar in contest, on the other hand, the lack of Muslim consolidation in Mustafabad and possible three-way split between AAP, Congress and AIMIM has made BJP a serious contender in the seat.

Another community witnessing an interesting internal churn are Sikh voters. BJP has fielded more Sikh candidates than before, bringing in leaders like Tarwinder Marwah and Arvinder Lovely from the Congress and the return of Harsharan Singh Balli to the BJP. However, the negative sentiment against BJP among Sikhs hasn't complete dissipated so the party's gains in this section would largely be due to individual candidates and not so much a larger shift towards the party.

Among Muslims, there was near complete consolidation behind AAP in 2020 mainly due to the anti-CAA protest going on at that time and the overwhelming sentiment to vote to defeat the BJP. This time, AAP is facing reverses in 2-3 seats. In Okhla, AAP strongman Amanatullah Khan is facing a very serious fight from AIMIM's Shifa-ur-Rehman, who is jailed under the UAPA for his participation in the anti-CAA protests.

In Mustafabad, AIMIM's Tahir Hussain, another UAPA prisoner, and Congress' Ali Mehdi have campaigned strongly, making the seat difficult for AAP. On the other hand, AAP seems to have reversed the losses it faced in Seelampur in the MCD election by bringing on board veteran leader Chaudhary Mateen Ahmed from the Congress and fielding his son Chaudhary Zubair from the seat.

Then in Kirari, dominated by Bihari migrants, AAP has brought in Anil Jha from the BJP, in an attempt to prevent a shift of this vote. While the BJP's gains among Dalits appear to be limited, the party is very optimistic about its outreach among Purvanchali voters.

The extent to which BJP has succeeded or failed in turning this demographic, may prove to be decisive in this election.