Is it Mayawati’s ‘Abhi Nahin Toh Kabhi Nahi’ Moment in UP?

With a dent in BSP’s vote bank, Mayawati’s UP comeback is fraught with several challenges, writes Mayank Mishra.

The spiritual guru who is said to have given diksha to Mayawati and her political mentor Kanshi Ram is reported to have switched sides and is now openly praising the Bharatiya Janata Party. His main complaint is that while he waited for six months to get an appointment with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief, the BJP top brass has been very accessible and helpful.

While the Buddhist monk’s departure may not hurt Mayawati politically, desertion of many important leaders definitely will. And the list is becoming longer with every passing day. From leaders of considerable influence like Swami Prasad Maurya to R K Chaudhary to as many as five members of legislative assembly (MLAs) – all have left the BSP in the last two months. And the buzz in Lucknow is that the remaining upper caste MLAs are negotiating with rival parties to switch sides. All this is happening at a time when the Mayawati-led party is seen to be a front-runner who would benefit from the prevailing anti-incumbency mood in Uttar Pradesh.

Dalit Vote Bank in Disarray

What will hurt Mayawati even more is the fact that all those who have left the party have levelled similar charges: that the leadership is not accessible, that decision-making is not democratic, that there is a growing influence of money power in the party and that candidate selection process for elections is not transparent.

Desertion of some leaders or allegations against her leadership would not have mattered to Mayawati some ten years ago. That was the time she was sure of her core support base of Dalits. Not anymore, however. Mayawati’s biggest worry is her declining popularity among Dalits – both Jatavs, once the BSP’s most trusted support base, and others.

According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) data, Mayawati-led party won 86 per cent of Jatav votes in 2007. It fell to just 62 per cent in 2012 assembly elections. What is worse, a majority of Valmiki, another influential Dalit group in Uttar Pradesh, voted for non-BSP parties in the 2012 elections as opposed to 71 per cent of them voting for the BSP five years earlier.

As a result of massive slide in its Dalit support base, the BSP could win only 15 seats out of the 85 reserved for scheduled castes in 2012. The Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, did exceedingly well by winning 58 of these seats. In fact, the Samajwadi Party’s vote share in reserved seats was more than its average vote share in the state. It is quite a change from the situation in 2007. The BSP then had won 61 reserved seats and the SP a mere 13 such seats.

BSP’s Umbrella Coalition

The 2014 Lok Sabha elections were nothing less than a shocker for the BSP. That year, the BSP’s loss among Dalits was BJP’s gain. According to the CSDS, in the Lok Sabha elections nearly 18 per cent Jatav voters and 45 per cent other Dalits voted for the BJP and its allies. No wonder the BJP is on a ‘woo-Dalits’ mission in UP to retain the kind of support it received last time.

Certain of the support among its core voter base, the BSP has been banking on stitching together an umbrella coalition of Dalits, Muslims, and Brahmins. Mayawati is reported to have given tickets to more than 100 Muslims and the party has decided to field more than 100 Brahmin candidates too.

The problem with the BSP is that it never releases candidates’ list officially.  This leads to confusion and lists are constantly changed to accommodate people. The practice is not good for a party that is making a serious bid for coming back to power.

Lucknow-based Journalist 

Tough Times Ahead for Mayawati?

• After stalwarts like Swami Prasad Maurya and RK Chaudhary, rumours are doing the rounds of BSP’s upper caste MLAs negotiating with rival parties.
  
• The move will come as a severe blow to Mayawati amidst allegations of corruption and nepotism by erstwhile party loyalists.
  
• Another cause of concern for Mayawati is her loosening grip over traditional vote bank of Jatavs and other Dalits.
  
• While BSP received 86 percent of Jatav votes in 2007, that figure came down to 62 percent in 2012 assembly elections.
  
• BJP, which received maximum support from Jatavs and the Dalits in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, likely to give BSP a tough fight.
  

Desertions Don’t Bode Well

The attempt to build a social coalition of disparate groups may take a beating if desertion of senior leaders Maurya and Chaudhary continues. After all, Maurya and Chaudhary represented different social groups in the BSP. Despite such hiccups, it is not unusual to find voices, and quite a few of them in different parts of the state, talking positively about the BSP. I found such voices on the streets of Lucknow, Agra, Firozabad, Rampur, and Shahjahanpur. The common theme in all these voices is: “Law and order situation during the BSP regime was much better.”

Such positive sentiment will translate into votes only if Mayawati is able to re-energise her party and assure its core supporters that the party cares for them. And some pre-election alliance may help Mayawati in her bid to stitch a broad coalition of social forces.

(The writer is Consulting Editor, Business Standard, and contributes regularly to The Quint on politics and contemporary issues.)

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