With PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti set to be sworn in as chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, now that BJP MLAs in the state assembly have endorsed her leadership, the sensitive border state is on track to having an elected civilian government at the helm again, instead of Governor’s rule.
Surprisingly, it took just a 25-minute meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mehbooba to pull their tottering alliance back from the brink of collapse.
The ease with which seemingly intractable problems have disappeared, as if with a wave of Modi’s magic wand, raises questions as to why the impasse was allowed to stretch for 11 long weeks even as the Valley hurtled towards renewed militancy fuelled by popular anger.
Read: BJP Legislators Unanimously Decide to Form Govt With PDP in J&K
Modi’s Crucial Intervention
It is evident from the way events have unfolded that larger geo-political considerations ultimately trumped the BJP’s narrow partisan ambitions in J&K. According to those familiar with the developments, several factors, both internal and external, weighed in to prod Modi to intervene personally and make one last attempt to break the deadlock himself instead of leaving it to his party.
The flashpoint was Mehbooba’s abrupt departure from Delhi last week without meeting Modi at the appointed time. Highly placed sources said Modi waited for her at Race Course Road, even delaying his scheduled departure for Jaisalmer, after interlocutors BJP president Amit Shah and general secretary Ram Madhav assured him that they had got Mehbooba to fall in line.
The real story was quite different. Although Mehbooba had indicated to Shah the night before that she was not averse to taking over as CM, she wanted a private word with the PM before her final decision. The BJP prepared a draft joint statement to be issued after she met with Modi but refused to consider her reservations about the wording.
PDP-BJP Back on Track
- PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti set to be sworn in as chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir soon.
- Narendra Modi and Mehbooba Mufti’s 25-minute meeting brought back the BJP-PDP coalition.
- Modi’s intervention prevented BJP from forming an alternative government without Mehbooba.
- Modi and Sharif are expected to discuss Kashmir at the Washington summit on 31 March.
While Modi waited for her, Mehbooba was trying to decide whether she should meet him or not. Finally, she opted against it and flew back to Kashmir.
It is to Modi’s credit that he did not take her no show personally. Sources in Kashmir reveal that he instead telephoned Vohra for direct feedback. The phone call set the ball rolling for Mehbooba and Modi to meet despite hardline noises emanating from Ram Madhav and other BJP leaders about the alliance being “as good as over’’ and “no renegotiation’’ of the agenda of governance.
Modi-Sharif to Discuss Kashmir at Washington Summit
Three factors seem to have weighed on Modi’s mind, prompting him to take the situation in hand himself. One was Governor Vohra’s advice that a civilian government take charge in J&K sooner rather than later. In fact, Vohra was keen that the government assume office before the capital shifts back to Srinagar in April.
Similar advice came from the army and security forces who are anticipating a summer of discontent in the Valley. They do not want to be in the direct line of fire and are believed to have pressed hard for a return to civilian rule as a buffer to insulate the army from any backlash.
The third factor is Modi’s upcoming visit to Washington. He flies to the US capital on March 30 at the personal invitation of US President Barack Obama to attend the Nuclear Safety Summit. Obama has issued a similar invitation to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
The summit is a one-day affair on March 31 and expectations are high that Modi and Sharif will meet for bilateral talks on April 1 under the benign watch of the Americans and Kashmir will be on the table this time among a host of other issues.
Modi’s hands will obviously be strengthened, both with the Americans and with the Pakistanis, with a credible elected government in Srinagar.
The credibility factor is important because the BJP was trying to play the same murky politics in J&K as it played in Arunachal Pradesh, where it managed to oust a Congress government through defections, and in Uttarakhand, where it has unleashed a similar operation.
What Will Save the PDP-BJP Partnership?
Mehbooba was aware of what was going on. Several PDP MLAs were on the verge of crossing the floor. She had to choose between sitting in government with the BJP or watching her party break. It wasn’t much of a choice.
Modi’s intervention put a stop to the BJP’s Plan B to form an alternative government without Mehbooba. A government formed through defections would not have gone down well in Washington.
Sources familiar with Mehbooba’s thinking reveal that she was keen on a one-on-one meeting with the PM because of alliance problems with the local BJP. It seems she wanted to convey her misgivings about some BJP ministers who had given her late father Mufti Mohd Sayeed a hard time when he was CM because of their overtly pro-Jammu stance, sometimes at the risk of being seen as communal.
She wanted them to be reigned in and this was something she felt she could only communicate directly to the PM. Modi seems to have given adequate reassurances, judging by her remark after the meeting.
When you meet the Prime Minister, then the ways of sorting out problems becomes more clear.
Mehbooba will be CM by next week. However, the longevity of her government will depend on two factors: one is her skill at steering a difficult alliance; the other is the elbow room. Modi has to display the same sagacity he showed this time to save the BJP-PDP partnership.
(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist)
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