- As diplomatic protocols and practices go, the innovative personal Modi variant was on full display with the media tracking every move.
- It would be premature to make a linear extrapolation from the innovative symbolism of the surprise visit.
- The year ahead would provide a roadmap for the progress between India and Pakistan and the degree to which, high-level political contact and determination can bring about change for the better.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled off a major diplomatic surprise by announcing his Lahore visit through a tweet from Kabul. The brief stop at the Afghan capital came after his Moscow visit and on Friday, Modi accepted an invite to visit Lahore on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s birthday and wished him in person.
As diplomatic protocols and practices go, the innovative personal Modi variant was on full display with the media (which had indeed been surprised – as it was, when the Bangkok NSA-Foreign Secretary talks occurred) tracking every aspect of the Kabul-Lahore flight.
In a sign of the comfort level between the two prime ministers, Mr Sharif was at the airport to receive his special guest and later – in yet another first – the two PMs embarked on a helicopter ride to Sharif’s palace in Raiwind.
The one-on-one talks between the two prime ministers lasted a little over an hour and no statement was issued except a tweet to highlight the commitment to South Asian cooperation. The tweet by MEA spokesman Vikas Swarup read,
While a certain degree of Christmas cheer was introduced into the arid India-Pakistan bilateral relationship by the surprise Modi Lahore visit, it would be premature to make a linear extrapolation from the innovative symbolism to the more substantive and intractable issues that have bedeviled the bilateral relationship since March 1999 when former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had visited Lahore.
Over the last sixteen years, three issues have remained contentious as far as Delhi is concerned: Pakistan’s support to terrorism, Kashmir and nuclear sabre-rattling. It may be recalled that in 1999, the Lahore bonhomie between Prime Ministers Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif floundered in the craggy heights of Kargil, since at the time, Pakistan Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf was following a different agenda.
Pakistan’s tumultuous domestic history has reiterated a critical reality, that Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the Pakistan Army has total control over the three thorny issues. Prime Minister Sharif’s attempt to establish civilian control led to the coup that saw him in exile for over a decade.
On Friday, apart from Rawalpindi, the two other constituencies that are inimical to any improvement in the bilateral relation are located in Muridke – the headquarters of the LeT and the Lal Masjid in Islamabad. The latter is representative of the extreme Islamist right wing in Pakistan that propagates an inflexible interpretation of Wahabi-Salafi Islam and considers all other persuasions to be heretical including the substantive Shia population of Pakistan.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will have to carry these constituencies with him to realise the true spirit of South Asian cooperation and, in a way, return to the template of January 2004 that was signed by former Prime Ministers Vajpayee and General Musharraf. And where consensus is elusive, the Sharif government would have to quarantine and contain such anti-India fervor and this could be very challenging in relation to what Lal Masjid represents.
Prime Minister Modi’s Moscow visit would have given him an opportunity to have a first hand understanding of Russian concerns in relation to radical Islam and the growing footprint of such terrorism, most recently manifested in the actions of ISIS. Concurrently, the need for political consensus in relation to stabilising Afghanistan has become even more urgent and daunting after the recent spate of Taliban attacks against Afghan security forces.
Lessons From the Afghan Visit
The Kabul visit allowed Prime Minister Narendra Modi to formally hand over the Parliament complex, built with Indian assistance, to the Ghani government. But everyone present realised that Afghanistan’s fragile security situation made a robust democracy that much more elusive and that the building was symbolic of the arduous path ahead.
It may be conjectured that Modi’s visit to Lahore was also driven by the need to apprise Nawaz Sharif about the Moscow deliberations and assuage the concerns about Indian military aid to Kabul.
Pakistan has accorded unto itself a major role in the internal affairs of Afghanistan. And the visit of General Raheel Sharif to Kabul on December 27 would provide a better idea of how Rawalpindi proposes to allay Afghanistan’s fears about the same characteristic – Pakistan army’s support to terror groups.
While the Modi visit is welcome for its innovative symbolism, the substantive outcome may prove to be more tenuous, and the year ahead would provide a roadmap for the progress between India and Pakistan and the degree to which, high-level political contact and determination can bring about an abiding change for the better.
On current evidence, the probability appears bleak, the Christmas mood notwithstanding. The New Year wish would be that a cautious security analyst is proved wrong.
(The writer is a leading expert on strategic affairs. He is currently Director, Society for Policy Studies.)
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