In the last two years, one point has consistently emerged from the monthly meetings of the Unified Command in Jammu & Kashmir: That militancy is at its lowest levels with the “shelf life” of local militants ranging from a few months to two years. By all accounts, they are ill-equipped and ill-trained.
Infiltration is also down from 220 in 2014, to 36 in 2015 and 38 in the first six months of this year. So why is the Union Home Ministry claiming 65 percent increase in infiltration? It’s important to note that the army, central intelligence agencies and Central Police Organisations (CRPF, BSF) are on the same platform when it comes to such information.
Diverting Attention
Where the army categorises infiltration under captured, killed and escaped, the central agencies have added “attempted infiltration”. It’s not clear how they define it, since most of them are not on the Line of Control where it is presumed they can spot an “attempted infiltration” (the Intelligence Bureau is well behind and reportedly shares the army’s assets while the BSF is on the international border; the CRPF has no presence anywhere near the LoC).
There could be an attempt here by some central agencies to divert attention from the current turmoil and their own bungling by pointing in another direction – infiltration, in this case. But the army, which sits on the LoC, and continues to engage in counter-infiltration and counter-terror operations in the adjoining “depth areas”, has not come across any change in the infiltration pattern.
Threat from Armed Militancy
The total number of militants is estimated at less than 200 and the state of armed militancy is at its lowest ebb. Armed militancy south of the Pir Panjal, in Doda, Poonch, Kishtwar and other places has been broken. At present, it poses no threat to the state. This is not to say it cannot revive and, in that sense, Pakistan’s moves need to be closely monitored.
The mood and violence in the streets today is reminiscent of the situation in 2010-11 when Pakistan, working through the separatists, established networks to mobilise, coordinate and fund violent mobs. Then, as now, the people were the same: unemployed young men, drop-outs from college, most of them below 20 years of age.
Lack of Smart Policing
It reinforces the view among many that there is no time better than the present for the politicians to get out of their sloth, reach out to their constituents and communicate on the issues that agitate the public mind. The bureaucracy too must start working, delivering on better public services, infrastructure and so on. This is not happening and has not been happening for many years.
About the only agency which is fully committed and on duty 24x7 is the state police. Needless to say, they continue to sustain casualties whether in random militant attacks or in incidents of mob violence that we have seen over the last few days. One could fault them for the lack of “smart policing”, in the use of weapons that, although termed non-lethal, have had lethal impact, and in not being proactive enough but this could apply equally to any police force in India.
(The writer is former international affairs editor, CNN-IBN and NDTV. He can be reached at @suryagang)
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