An Extraordinary Gesture
- Narendra Modi’s intentions included building on his relations with Nawaz Sharif
- Optics of the visit was to create an image of sincerity
- But Modi must carefully weigh if his visit would make any impact on the Pakistan army
- Pak foreign office claims that both civil and military institutions are on the same page
- A change in Pak army’s approaches should be seen in its actions
- Two steps that would indicate that there is fresh thinking is on terrorism and trade
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dramatic “stopover” and “goodwill” visit to Lahore on Christmas day took the peoples of both countries by surprise. If its object was just that then it more than achieved it. But Modi is too seasoned a politician to make gestures that are empty and lacking in purpose. So, what were his intentions?
The first was to build on his relations with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. There was clearly a deeper motive. Modi is aware that by and large the Pakistani public considers him to be a Hindu fundamentalist who is implacably hostile to its country. It views him through the prism of the Gujarat riots. It doubts his sincerity to transform bilateral ties. One purpose of Modi’s visit was no doubt to erode this impression.
Optics of the Visit
The optics of the visit – Nawaz Sharif and he warmly embracing at the Lahore airport, the pictures of the two at the former’s personal home, the report of Modi touching Nawaz Sharif’s mother’s feet – were all to create an image of sincerity.
Such an image would add substance to Modi’s grand, though little noticed, comment during his recent address to the combined conference of the three defence services. He said, “We are engaging Pakistan to try and turn the course of history, bring an end to terrorism, build peaceful relations, advance cooperation and promote stability and prosperity in the region.”
In itself there is nothing wrong if an Indian prime minister wishes to convey his genuine desire to move positively ahead to all sections of Pakistan through a sudden, unprecedented and extraordinary gesture. Indeed, normally it should be widely welcomed.
Will Pak Generals be Moved?
However, in doing so he must carefully weigh if it would make any impact on the institution that takes the final decisions on India – the Pakistan army. Beyond gestures the real issue is whether the Pakistani army is now invested in peace with India and is willing to change course.
In a brief interaction with the media, after Modi left Lahore, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhary underlined that all Pakistani institutions, civil and military, were on the same page regarding India. Indian government sources have claimed that the present Pakistan National Security Advisor Lt Gen (retd) Nasser Janjua is close to army chief Gen Raheel Sharif.
Hence, the desire to move ahead that he conveyed in his meeting with India’s NSA Ajit Doval in Bangkok earlier this month also represents the thinking of the army. A change in the Pakistan army’s approaches should be seen not in its words but in its actions. There are two steps that would indicate that there is some fresh thinking taking place among the generals. First and foremost is in the area of terrorism and the second is trade.
Dismantling Terror Infrastructure
During External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s recent visit to Islamabad, Pakistan assured India that it will expedite the Mumbai 26/11 trial. A successful conclusion of the trial would be a good beginning but it would be insufficient. Pakistan must also dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism and severe its intelligence agencies from the Lashkar-e-Toiba. Only that would mark clear change. Till then it would be the policy of calibrating terrorism.
Normalising Trade
Nawaz Sharif has for long wanted to fully normalise trade with India. However, the army has prevented him from doing so. If it allows him to do so it would be a sign that it wants to begin cooperative ties with India. There is little evidence of this as yet. The generals are fixated on what Pakistan believes is necessary to take the relationship ahead i.e. what it calls dispute resolution.
Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries will meet in January to work out the details of the comprehensive bilateral dialogue. It has already been announced that it would contain all the subjects of the composite dialogue, including Siachen.
Difficulties of the Past
As there is a consensus in India that Indian forces should not withdraw from their positions on the Saltoro Ridge it remains to be seen how this issue will be handled. Inevitably, gestures cannot wish away the difficulties of the past and nor in themselves yield to fresh approaches.
There is little doubt that the Ufa agreement has been abandoned. That was a concession by India. The Pakistanis claim that Modi’s Lahore visit was made at his own initiative. Will it be interpreted as a sign that Modi is so keen to “turn the course of history” that he can be moved, inch by inch, to make real concessions. If that is so then Modi should dispel it soonest.
(The writer is a former Secretary (West), Ministry of External Affairs.)
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