Gone are the days when government budgets were annual statement of accounts and projections for the next year. The post-1991 era converted them into political manifestos that fudged reality more than throw light of how the government would raise and spend money.
The Delhi government budget for 2016-17 presented by Manish Sisodia dutifully follows this script-making process so thoroughly that it is extremely difficult to separate hype from reality.
Yes it should be lauded for reducing VAT on ready-made clothes and shoes, but what about on mithai and marble? And it backtracked, rather rolled back, on rationalising duties on the clothes and shoes and has retained tax arbitrage. What is truly commendable is the 13% increase in tax collections, including 11% in VAT, reflecting procedural reforms. Overall its VAT proposals are sound, reduce discretion and would make for better compliance.
Overall its VAT proposals are sound, reduce discretion and would make for better compliance. But these rate changes would only have a minor effect on the cost of living despite the headlines that most reports have.
A Hall of Mirrors
It’s when you look at the revenue projections and allocations that you enter into a hall of mirrors meant to confuse and mislead. The total projected budget figure of Rs 46,600 crores represents sharp hike of 11.7 % over the budget estimate of last year (Rs 41,129 crores).
But if one looks at the actual performance, which was a total expenditure of only Rs 37,965 crores, it boggles the mind – can a government that spend about 8% less than projected in one year be able to suddenly spend 22% more in the next?
In fact Sisodia takes credit for spending less, saying that the government has been prudent and saved money. He rightly points to the limitations of judging performance using expenditure as the only matrix but shies away from explaining how did his government do in terms of better delivery and promises met.
The budget is almost completely silent on the specific projections made in the last budget in the different sectors, choosing instead to list completely different priorities this year. And does not address implementation issues at all.
The Education Sector
In education, the total plan (development as against recurrent) allocation this year is Rs 4645 crores as against Rs 4570 crores, a reduction in real terms. Last year, he hoped to recruit 20,000 teachers; this year he does not refer to this figure but says that the recruitment of 5500 teachers is at final stages.
In both
years, he promises to install CCTV in all classrooms of government schools,
this year calling it ‘a path breaking initiative’. Similarly, that the AAP
government would set up incubation centres in colleges to help entrepreneurship.
In neither case is there a reference to the previous years’ announcements. Last year, Sisodia announced that four new Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) would be set up at Mongolpuri, where the building was said to be ready and at Ranhola, Chhattarpur and Bakkarwal.
Reporting on progress, this year’s speech informs us that two new ITIs have been set up in Mongolpuri and Nand Nagari. There is no news of Ranhola, Chhattarpur and Bakkarwal.
Promised 500 Mohalla Clinics, Given One
In health, Sisodia referred to favourable reporting in the international media about the mohalla clinic set by the Delhi government, and how it is seen as offering Washington DC a model to replicate.
We are informed that the PWD was processing tenders for 1000 mohalla clinics, and that another 100 would be set up in rented premises using empanel doctors. When one looks at the previous year’s budget speech, the gap between promise and performance becomes embarrassing huge.
Apparently, Delhi has got one mohalla clinic against the 500 promised last year! Similarly, on the issue of emergency CAT ambulances, the progress has been zero. Both years promise exactly the same – that 100 new ambulances and 10 advanced life-support ambulances would be procured.
The plan allocation for health has seen an effective reduction – from Rs 3138 crores to Rs 3200 Crores.
Every Year New Ideas, Low Output
In roads and transport, the picture is the same, of repeated promises and low delivery. Last year, the target was to procure 1380 low-floor buses and 500 midi-buses, and add 1000 under cluster scheme.
There has been no procurement or addition during the year, and the target has come down to 1000 low-floor and cluster buses each. And CCTVs have been installed in 200 buses, and not 5951 buses as promised.
In sector after sector, the story is the same – many great ideas like a pyramid structure for public health so that hospitals are not overloaded with routine cases, exposing school principals to Harvard and Cambridge, involving the private sector in vocational education on a large scale, making our streets pedestrian and cycle-friendly, emphasis on public transport etc, but are these ideas thought through, or are they just random thoughts that sound catchy?
If the admittedly
short record is anything to go by, then next year we will again see many new
ideas but little by way of implementation.
(The writer, a former Principal Secretary to the Government of Delhi, is Director of South Asian Institute for Strategic Affairs.)
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