1. What Does Brexit Mean?
The EU is in shock. No member state has ever left the Union and it is now entering uncharted territory. Article 50 of the EU treaty, which states how a country can exit the bloc, offers scant detail. Although it provides a sketchy legal framework for a two-year period of withdrawal, many fear the process can quickly become acrimonious, disrupting the economy and European affairs across the board. But it is not clear how quickly Britain will set that two-year clock ticking.
Having lost, Cameron announced that he would stay on for two months to ease the transition, but that the Brexit laws should be implemented with a new prime minister at the helm.
EU leaders have ruled out further talks on membership; “Leave means leave,” they say. And many want a quick, two-year divorce while negotiating terms for the future.
Until a departure treaty is signed – which requires assent from Britain and a majority of the remaining 27 states weighted by population – Britain remains, in principle, a full member of the EU, but will be excluded from discussions affecting its exit terms.
2. What is Article 50?
3. Where Does the European Union Go From Here?
4. So, What Changes for Britain?
In principle, nothing changes immediately.
Britons remain EU citizens and business continues as before. In practice, many believe trade, investment and political decisions will quickly anticipate British departure from the bloc. The EU could also face a Britain breaking apart if europhile Scots make another push for independence and seek to join the EU on their own.
There is a “Brussels consensus” that Britain must be made an example of for leaving, and will face a chilly future, cast out to perhaps talk its way back later into some kind of trade access in return for concessions, such as free migration from inside the bloc and contributions to the EU budget – things which Brexit voters want to end, but which the likes of Norway and Switzerland have accepted in varying forms.
However, cautious diplomats do not rule out surprise turns.
5. What’s Happening Right Now?
European Council President Donald Tusk, who will chair the summit next week and has spoken to all the leaders in the days before the vote, will deliver a statement in the name of the Council, the EU’s governing body, once the result is official.
Foreign ministers are gathering for a regular meeting in Luxembourg. The German and French foreign ministers will meet counterparts from the other four EU founders – Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg.
Foreign ministers of the founding six may meet in Berlin on Saturday. EU envoys meet in Brussels on Sunday and European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker may bring forward to Sunday a meeting of the 28 members of the Commission. French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet in Berlin on Monday.
Britain’s commissioner, close Cameron ally, Jonathan Hill, faces being stripped of his sensitive portfolio overseeing banks and financial services. He may choose to resign.
(In arrangement with Reuters)
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