Taking a Cue From J&K: BJP, AIUDF May Go for Post-Poll Alliance

Despite being on opposite side of ideological spectrum, political compulsions may force BJP & AIUDF to come together.

They make the most unlikely allies but by all indications, the BJP and the AIUDF led by Maulana Badruddin Ajmal are preparing to form a coalition government.

“That may be like going back on everything the two parties have said during the election campaign, but that is politics,” said a senior AIUDF leader.

He said his leader Ajmal has been approached by the BJP. “Top BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma has had few rounds of talks with Ajmal Saheb and it looks like Ajmal has decided to go with the BJP rather than the Congress,” the top AIUDF leader said, but insisted on being kept anonymous because he is not authorised to brief the media.

The official AIUDF spokesperson Champak Kalita is not speaking. Neither is Ajmal, except for saying: All depends on how many seats goes to whom.

“That will influence our decision on whom to support,” he told mediapersons but dodged questions on whether he will insist on not supporting the BJP come what may.

Possibility of an Alliance

The BJP leadership is almost sure that the alliance it is leading will emerge as the single largest even if it does not get a clear majority in the 126-member state assembly.

“Our first choice would be to win over the Independents, some of whom may win, but if we still need some support, the only party we could go to is the AIUDF,” said a top BJP leader. But she insisted on anonymity because parleys with the AIUDF are top secret.

For a large number of BJP and AIUDF supporters, an alliance looks impossible.

“The BJP is out to detect and deport illegal migrants from Bangladesh, at least that is the poll promise they have made, while the AIUDF is seen as a party of those very illegal migrants,” said Samir Purkayastha, a political analyst who has written extensively on Assam.

But Purkayastha says the AIUDF leadership, at least the Ajmals and their coterie are not keen on an alliance with Congress because they see a mutual competition between the two for a minority support base.

“While the BJP will completely depend on AIUDF to deliver minority support, the Congress will try to eat into its minority support base, as it did with the United Minorities Front in the 1980s,” analyst Purkayastha told The Quint.

Opposites Attract

• BJP may enter into a post-poll alliance with the AIUDF if they fall short of majority in the 126-member assembly in Assam.
  
• AIUDF leadership not keen on an alliance with Congress for they fear losing its traditional minority support base.
  
• Bone of contention between BJP and AIUDF likely to be choice of chief ministerial candidate.
  
• Party insiders say Ajmal will insist on a ‘CM acceptable to minorities’ and doing away with anti-migrant policy.
  

Ajmal is also known for his close relations with Himanta Biswa Sarma from the latter’s days in the Gogoi cabinet. Sarma could well be trying to use his ‘friendship’ with Ajmal and Bodo leader Hangrama Mohilary to outgun BJP’s declared Chief Minister candidate Sarbananda Sonowal .

Bone of Contention

Sonowal is hugely popular amongst ethnic Assamese and tribals for his spirited legal challenge that led to the scrapping of the IMDT act, 1983 that was seen as protective of illegal migrants.

Ajmal may not agree to go with BJP if it sticks with Sonowal as CM candidate . Sonowal is seen as a possible tormentor of minorities branded often as illegal migrants, so Sarma may be the compromise candidate.

Samir Purkayastha

Immediately after the final round of Assam polls was over on 11 April, Sarma and Ajmal started their confabulations.

Party insiders say Ajmal will insist on a ‘CM acceptable to minorities’, adequate representation of the AIUDF in a coalition government (possibly Ajmal will ask for Deputy Chief Minister and the critical Home portfolio) and dismantling or non-functioning of the tribunals set up to detect foreigners.

“If they don’t win the majority, the BJP is looking at a Kashmir type situation. The only difference is the PDP is the senior partner in the Kashmir coalition and BJP the junior partner, while in Assam the BJP would be senior partner and AIUDF the junior partner,” said analyst Amarjyoti Bora.

Numbers Determining Choice

AIUDF founder Hafiz Rashid Chowdhury, now with Samata Party, says if Ajmal goes with BJP, he will ‘betray the basic spirit of minority politics in Assam’.

If he joins hands with the very chauvinist forces who torment our people, not only will his credibility sink but he would ruin the very foundations of minority politics in the state,

But many AIUDF leaders and activists don’t agree.

If we have an alliance with a party which is in power in the Centre, Assam will get a lot of development funds. And if we partner the BJP, these funds will also flow into our areas.

Abu Sufian, AIUDF Activist

That could well be Ajmal’s selling point if he seeks to partner the BJP in a coalition government.

“But what about the protection issue? Can he guarantee our people will not be harassed and intimated if he partners BJP,” asks Hafiz Rashid Chowdhury.

For the BJP, it will drop from the high cloud of anti-migrant rhetoric to the more mundane talk of governance and development couched in the traditional ‘Raj Dharma’.

The Congress is also keen on an alliance with the AIUDF but will be in business only if it gets close to 50 seats and the AIUDF manages a 15 plus score.

(Subir Bhaumik is a veteran BBC journalist and author of three well acclaimed books on India’s Northeast, including the “Agartala Doctrine” that has just been published.)

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