The massive mobilisation by the Trinamool Congress at the United India rally in Kolkata on 19 January, Saturday, was a Mamata Banerjee show all the way.
Besides the impact it may have had on the lakhs gathered at the Brigade Parade grounds, and others watching on TV, it sent a clear message to the people of West Bengal, that Didi (as Mamata Banerjee is popularly called) could be a potential prime ministerial candidate for the Opposition bloc in 2019.
Spotlight on Mamata
Banerjee’s political prowess was noted by the representatives of 20 opposition parties that she had managed to bring together. And many leaders thanked her publicly for taking the initiative which could be a first step, they felt, to remove Narendra Modi, and install a new prime minister.
Barring Rahul Gandhi, who wrote her a personal letter of support and sent Mallikarjun Kharge and Abhishek Singhvi to represent him, and BSP Chief Mayawati who deputed Satish Mishra to be her emissary, and of course the Left parties, who continue to remain a thorn by her side, the entire phalanx of “anti-BJP” parties was present on the dais.
The four ‘non-aligned’ parties—Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress, and the AIADMK—were absent, but they are not going to align with either side before the polls, and will keep their options open. Their politics for the moment is geared to weaken the Congress in the Opposition space. The mega rally made the lineup of opposition parties clearer.
Modi Throws Himself Into the Spotlight – Again
Soon after the meeting, the BJP lampooned the absence of a prime ministerial candidate on the Opposition side, to take on Narendra Modi. Modi reacted to it derisively with a “Wah kya scene hai”.
And then, not unexpectedly, he turned it around to project it as a fight between Modi and “opportunist” parties, out to demolish him only for power, thus, making himself the centre point of the 2019 battle – which the BJP will increasingly try and do.
With the absence of a clear face to take on Modi, the Opposition parties appear to be pursuing a strategy to maximise their gains state wise around the issue of their potential prime minister. The impression that Mamata Banerjee could be PM is likely to fuel a regional sentiment in her favour in West Bengal. Mayawati says —and Akhilesh Yadav backs her — that the next PM should be from Uttar Pradesh, thereby raising the hopes of Dalits, and her potential supporters that she could be prime minister.
In Andhra Pradesh, there are sections who believe that Chandrababu Naidu, who has taken the initiative to stitch a mahagathbandhan, may emerge as the dark horse. And curiously, it was Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadanavis who said that India would see more than one prime minister from Maharashtra soon. Nitin Gadkari or Sharad Pawar?
All players on the Opposition side know that were they to command the requisite numbers, who becomes the PM can be decided only after the polls.
This does not however, prevent them from positioning themselves as Mamata did in Kolkata on Saturday, or that which Mayawati is doing by trying to maximise the number of seats she contests. But the ultimate selection will be influenced both by strength plus the widest possible acceptability.
Old Guard Come Together, Youth Leaders In the Mix
Apart from the Congress, which is expected to emerge as the largest group among the Opposition parties — Rahul Gandhi can be considered for the PM’s post only if the country’s grand old party can get upwards of 150 seats — the regional parties which are expected to do well in 2019 are the SP and BSP because of their tie-up, the Trinamool Congress with a feisty Mamata continuing to exercise her grip over the state, and the DMK which is on the upswing, given the post-Jayalalithaa travails of the AIADMK and Rajnikanth’s failure to take off. The RJD has also been gaining sympathy in Bihar but will have to share seats with several allies.
There were three other striking features of Saturday’s mega event. It brought together seasoned players like Sharad Pawar, HD Deve Gowda, Farooq Abdullah, Sharad Yadav, Malikarjun Kharge, but it also had on stage an array of younger leaders who are being thrown up in the states, who could band together to reach out to the first-time voters.
This is a constituency which Modi has been targeting over the last two years and he enjoys support among them. These young leaders present at the Kolkata rally were Tejashwi Yadav(Bihar), Akhilesh Yadav and Jayant Chaudhary (UP), Arvind Kejriwal (Delhi), Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mevani (Gujarat). One is yet to see their equivalents or counterparts on the BJP’s side. In addition, there are many young faces in Rahul Gandhi’s team who could reach out to the young voter, like Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Scindia, to mention only two.
United Opposition Needs A New Narrative
Secondly, just as a Modi-led BJP represents a centralised political functioning with power concentrated in the hands of two leaders, ‘Opposition 20’ represents a federalised approach to politics, and this became visible again in Kolkata.
Thirdly, it also became clear that the Opposition parties can do with a narrative that goes beyond flaying Modi.
They have talked about the harm he has caused to the country’s democratic structure, and to institutions like the CBI, RBI, Election Commission, Enforcement Directorate, media and the judiciary, and speaker after speaker highlighted one or another aspect of it. But they may need to evolve their plan, and indeed a road map, for ending farmers’ distress, that goes beyond loan waivers, and creating jobs for the youth, that they have repeatedly spoken about.
(Neerja Chowdhury is a senior journalist. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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