Although he was rapped on the knuckles by the Centre, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s move to include 17 OBC groups in the list of Scheduled Castes, is not as ill-conceived as it appears.
Adityanath was merely following a script written for him by the BJP, with an eye to further consolidate its OBC vote bank before the 12 upcoming assembly by-polls in Uttar Pradesh.
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To understand the politics at play, it is important to read between the lines of Union Social Justice & Empowerment Minister Thawar Chand Gehlot’s statement in Parliament, on the UP government’s decision. When Gehlot criticised it as ‘not proper’ and ‘unconstitutional’, it was seen as a sign of differences within the BJP, between the Centre and the State. And word went out that Yogi had been “misled’’ by ‘mischievous’ elements in his administration.
All 17 OBC Groups Sought To Be Included In SC List Are BJP Voters...
But a closer reading of Gehlot’s remarks indicates otherwise. In fact, there was a definite hint that the Centre is on board in principle, with the decision to expand the SC list. The union minister helpfully advised the UP government to follow procedure, and send a proposal which the Centre would consider.
So why did Yogi bypass due process, when it is widely known that any change in the SC list requires a constitutional amendment approved by Parliament? No state government has the powers to add or subtract from the list. It has to be done by the central government.
It seems that Yogi was a pawn in a game of political signaling. All the 17 OBC groups sought to be included in the SC list are BJP voters, who have helped the party defeat UP behemoths, SP and BSP, in three consecutive elections.
The BJP is clearly in a hurry to ‘reward’ these caste groups by signaling its intent to fulfill their long-standing demand to be included in the SC list.
It’s in a hurry because the by-elections are approaching, and these castes were once SP voters who shifted to the BSP, and have now gravitated towards the BJP. The party wants to consolidate this shift quickly, if only through hints and gestures, before these votes float away as they are wont to.
BJP’s ‘Final Blow’ To SP-BSP’s Hallmark Identity Politics?
Yogi sent the first signal with his directive to the UP administration to start issuing SC certificates to these OBC groups. The Centre reaffirmed it through Gehlot’s carefully-worded statement that it would consider the proposal. Now, it’s time for patience because, as evident from what Gehlot said, the process is a lengthy one, and possibly fraught with pitfalls which the Modi government will have to negotiate with dexterity.
These are ruses and shadow play that political parties indulge in for vote bank politics. The BJP has always claimed to be different.
But it’s now clear that it has waded deep into UP’s caste conundrum with the intention of appropriating the Mandal plank for itself, hoping that this will deal the final blow to the SP and BSP’s hallmark identity politics.
It is interesting that the Yogi Adityanath gambit is a copy cat move of a ploy that SP leaders Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav, as well as BSP chief Mayawati used when they were chief ministers, to keep these castes in their fold. They didn’t have to follow through with the promise because their parties never held power at the Centre. But they paid the price for unfulfilled commitments, as they lost the loyalty of these castes bit by bit.
‘Squeezing More People In, Could End Up Pushing Out Others’
This is where the rub lies for the BJP too. Because it has a commanding majority both in UP and at the Centre, expectations are high that these castes will finally get what they have been lobbying for all these years.
But caste politics is a minefield. On the face of it, the BJP could possibly maneuver the necessary parliamentary approval to expand the SC list. But squeezing more people into the compartment could end up pushing others out.
For instance, existing SC groups will have to share benefits with the new entrants to this coveted list. While the BJP can afford to ignore the resentment of the Jatavs because they are Mayawati loyalists, it cannot overlook the sentiments of castes like Passis, Koris and Valmikis. They have shifted their votes to the BJP in recent years and have stuck on, despite attempts by the BSP to woo them back.
At the same time, having raised expectations among the 17 OBC groups listed by Yogi, the BJP will be under pressure to walk the talk.
The Yogi gambit will test the waters. The Modi government will have to take a call before the next assembly election in UP, that is due in 2022.
(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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