Uttar Pradesh has been the most politically significant state, accounting for the maximum number of Lok Sabha seats, that is, 80.
During the last general elections, the BJP-led NDA government won 73 seats (BJP: 71, Apna Dal (S): 2), giving a big boost to the saffron party, which, on its own, garnered the required magic figure of 272 seats — a feat achieved by a political party after 25 years.
Not only this, in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the BJP won a massive mandate, securing 312 seats on its own. However this time, it won’t be easy for the BJP, which will fight the SP-BSP alliance — two former arch rivals in the state. The Ajit Singh-led RLD has also joined the SP-BSP alliance.
National Poll Statistics Favour BJP?
During the last Lok Sabha elections, the BSP, SP and RLD polled 22.35 percent, 19.77 percent and 0.86 percent respectively. The BJP garnered 42.63 percent votes, and its ally Apna Dal(S) got 1.01 percent votes. It means that SP-BSP-RLD alliance polled together 42.98 percent votes, while the BJP+ registered 43.64 percent — 0.66 percent votes more than the alliance.
The Congress, which had contested alone, polled 7.5 percent votes. However, in the state elections held three years later, the BSP-SP-RLD combine’s vote share stood at 46 percent, while the BJP+AD(S)+ BSP won 41.4 percent — 4.6 percent votes less the alliance.
The Congress, which contested the state polls in alliance with SP, registered 6.2 percent votes.
Clearly, in the state polls, the alliance was ahead of the BJP combine, and in a triangular fight, a gap of 4.6 percent votes is sufficient to differentiate between the winner and the loser. A significant point is the vote percentage of BJP, which contested 384 seats, leaving 19 seats to the allies, and in contested seats was 41.57 percent in comparison to the average 39.7 percent — a difference of 1.87 percent votes.
One shouldn't forget that this is a national election where the national parties — the BJP and Congress — are favoured more by the voters in comparison to the state polls. That's why, considering only the statistics of the last state polls, brushing aside the statistics of the last general polls, may be a mistake. As this is a national election, the BJP+ will have a modest lead ahead of the alliance. And one shouldn't forget that 22 percent votes of the SP in the last state polls, also included a small section of the Congress’ votes.
The Alliance’s Caste Arithmetic: A Challenge for the BJP
Caste still remains a potential factor in deciding the poll outcome in Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati still appeals to the Dalits who form 21 percent of the state population. The Samajwadi Party's vote bank includes both the Yadavs (the dominant OBC group), and the Muslims, who account for 9 percent and 19 percent of the state population, respectively.
The alliance is banking on MYD (Muslim-Yadav-Dalit) combination which together accounts for more than 49 percent of UP’s electorate. On the other hand, BJP’s core voters are the upper-caste Hindus, including the Brahmins, Rajputs, Baniyas etc — who account for 18 percent in the state.
Apart from that, the BJP has been eyeing the non-Yadav 31 percent OBC votes in the state, as a large section of them had voted for the BJP in the 2014 and 2017 polls. Before the 2014 polls, non-Yadav OBCs generally preferred the Samajwadi Party.
Will the Non-Jatav Dalits Vote for the BJP?
Dalits are divided into two major groups — Jatav Dalits, the dominant Dalit group, and the non-Jatav Dalits. The Non-Jatav community includes many smaller Dalit groups like the Pasis — who are the larger non-Jatav community. Jatavs, who have been the backbone of the BSP – and Mayawati herself belongs to the community – account for 12 percent, while the non-Jatavs stand for 9 percent of the state population, and BSP has a strong presence among the overall Dalit community.
However, since the 2014 polls, a section of non-Jatavs, who don’t like the Jatav dominance in the BSP, have started tilting towards the BJP, which was witnessed in the 2017 state elections.
It remains to be seen whether the BSP will be able to gain the lost portion of non-Jatavs who had deserted the party. The BJP has been luring the non-Jatav Dalit community by giving them maximum tickets in the reserved scheduled caste constituencies. So, there is a possibility that a section of non-Jatavs may vote for the BJP as they did in 2014 and 2017. However, anti-incumbency is also a factor which may prevent some of them from voting for the BJP.
Will the SP be Able to Transfer its Votes?
The Samajwadi Party has allied with its past arch rival BSP in the state, to defeat the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP. Last time, the two parties had allied in 1993, when the combination was successful in defeating the BJP which was riding on the Ram mandir movement. However, much water has flown through the Gomti and the Ganga since then.
The two parties have had rivalry for the past two decades. But it is well known (read: assumed) that the BSP’s core voters, mainly the Jatavs, would vote for the SP. However, the same couldn’t be argued in case of Yadavs, the core voters of the SP.
A crucial point to be noted is that in the last assembly elections, the vote percentage of SP – which contested along with the Congress party – was 28.32 percent in seats contested, while that of Congress' vote percentage in the seats contested was 22.09 percent.
The average vote percentage of SP was 22 percent. The vote percentage gap in the contested seats between the then two allies — Congress and SP — was 6 percent. Seems that the SP’s core voters hadn't voted for the alliance partner Congress' candidates, while the latter’s supporters opted to vote for the SP.
It is assumed that Congress’ transfer ability of votes to the allies is weak — the reason for Mayawati sidelining the grand old party. So, whether the Yadavs will vote for the BSP or will they prefer the former SP leader Shivpal Yadav's Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party is not clear. But facts and reports indicate that SP may fail to completely transfer its votes to the BSP, and this may act as a negative factor against the alliance.
The Congress Under Priyanka: The X Factor
The grand old party, which is contesting alone after being snubbed by BSP and SP, has managed to create headlines due to Priyanka Gandhi, who is leading the party in the east zone, while the west zone is headed by Jyotiraditya Scindia. According to a media report, in the last 2014 polls, Congress had a vote share of 10 percent in eastern Uttar Pradesh, which has 35 Lok Sabha seats, compared to 5 percent votes in the western part of the state, which has 22 seats. So, in the west with a sizeable population of both Muslims and Jats, Congress will not be a factor.
As a result, Muslims will rally behind the alliance, and the upper-castes, including the Brahmins, will support the BJP. However, in the east, Congress, which has allied with smaller OBC parties, will be a factor, and may attract a chunk of Muslim plus OBC votes, creating ‘trouble’ for both the alliance and the BJP.
The ‘10 percent reservation bill’ by the Modi government, which includes the upper-caste Hindus, will make it difficult for the Congress to attract them, although it may be able to attract a minor chunk of the upper-castes. So, Congress remains the X-factor, because it is not clear which side will be more affected. However, the NISHAD party, representing the OBC boatmen class, which allied with the BJP, leaving the alliance, may help the party negate the effect of Congress luring the OBCs in east UP.
Will the ‘Modi Factor’ Help BJP This Time?
PM Narendra Modi remains undoubtedly one of the critical factors which would have a bearing on the outcome. One thing to be mentioned is that the Modi factor includes mainly the Hindutva card, development and nationalism — especially after the Balakot strikes. Modi, who himself started his Lok Sabha campaign from Meerut in West Uttar Pradesh, gave his report card on development, and also showcased himself as a ‘protector’ against terrorism.
He himself is contesting from Varanasi, one of the most sacred places of the Hindus, which is a clear tactic to woo the majority Hindu community. Anti-incumbency is a factor, and Modi is well aware of it.
That's why Modi, who still remains the highest crowd puller in the country, is banking on strong nationalism with his catchy speeches which resonate well with the crowds.
Polarisation and Rural Schemes: The Other ‘Y & Z’ Factors
Polarisation remains one of the main factors. BJP is blamed mainly for polarisation, which is based on religious lines, but the fact is, it is done by all the parties. This time, the SP-BSP alliance will try to polarise the Dalits and Yadavs based on caste-lines, and on the other side, will also polarise the Muslims, portraying the BJP as a danger to the community.
Similarly, the Congress is also trying to polarise the Brahmins, non-Yadav OBCs, Dalits and the Muslims in its favour. On the other hand, the BJP has the Balakot air strikes this time, apart from the Ram mandir issue, through which it will try to build a rainbow coalition of Hindu upper-castes, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits, to beat the anti-incumbency created mainly by joblessness and agrarian crisis.
Besides, the effect of the rural schemes launched by the Modi government, like the Kisan Samriddhi Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, Ujjwala Yojana, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, can’t be ignored.
In fact, to win elections, one needs to master both arithmetic and chemistry. The alliance seems to be ahead in arithmetic, but is yet to be tested on chemistry. On the other hand, BJP seems to be ahead on chemistry, with a clear narrative, but is lagging behind in the game of arithmetic in Uttar Pradesh.
(Sagarneel Sinha is a freelance writer from Tripura who writes on politics, foreign affairs and Indian mythology. He tweets @SagarneelSinha. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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