(This article was originally published on Hindi Quint on 17.05.19, and has been re-published on The Quint, following the exit poll ‘shocker’ in Uttar Pradesh. The article has been translated by Mariam Shaheen, and the exit poll numbers have been added to the original article by The Quint.)
This time in Uttar Pradesh, one thing is clear: the situation in the state is not as one-sided, in absolute favour of the BJP, as it was last time. The exit polls have thrown up mixed results: a Times Now-VMR survey shows the NDA winning 58 seats in the state, with the Congress-led UPA winning two, and the SP-BSP combine getting 20 seats.
But the ABP-AC Nielsen exit poll has predicted just the opposite; 22 for the BJP and allies, and 56 for the others, which includes the BSP-SP alliance. However, ABP-AC Nielsen also predicts two seats for the Congress.
From the Saharanpur seat in western UP to the Gorakhpur seat in eastern UP, the BJP has been seen struggling against the SP-BSP candidates, in the run up to the exit polls. SP-BSP’s social engineering, which has prevented the scattering of Dalit, OBC and Muslim votes, is largely responsible for this.
Even though in western UP Mayawati maintained some distance from Brahmin candidates, in the east, she included them in her social engineering. The result of this could possibly be seen in seats like Sitapur, Pratapgarh, Ambedkar Nagar and Sant Kabir Nagar, on 23 May.
Dalit-Muslim Factor in UP Spoils BJP’s ‘Game’
In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party fought separately. Dalit votes were part of the BSP’s base, while Muslim votes over the past two decades leaned towards the SP. The political editor of Navbharat Times, Nadim, opines that, in the state, 18 percent Muslims and 21 percent Dalits form a big vote base.
In the previous elections, they voted separately, which benefited the BJP. But now, with BSP and SP together, a big chunk of this 40 percent seems to be with them.
Senior journalist Ambarish Kumar says that the SP and BSP's politics is linked to the Dalits, Backward Castes and Muslim votes. Their coming together might not be able to do a ‘two-plus-two-four’, but the two and two can definitely get them to make a ‘three’. This is the reason why the alliance’s candidates have given the BJP candidates a tough time in almost every seat.
According to experts, more than the BJP, it is the Congress that is going to bear the brunt of the SP-BSP alliance. In many seats, Muslim voters have voted for the alliance along with the Dalit and Yadav voters, in order to stop the BJP.
Apart from the SP-BSP alliance, the BJP has also been dealing with ‘internal sabotage’ in many seats. There are many such seats including Aligarh, Agra, Badaun, Sant Kabir Nagar, where the BJP has been facing a bigger threat from its own people than from the alliance. There is strong resentment against many BJP MPs in their own areas.
SP-BSP Stand Together
The biggest challenge before the alliance is to ensure that the SP candidate gets BSP votes and the BSP candidate gets SP votes. Leaders of both parties, Mayawati and Akhilesh, have used every platform to tell the voters that they respect each other and are standing together. At a Kannauj rally, Dimple Yadav touched Mayawati’s feet seeking her blessings, and in Mainpuri, Mayawati’s nephew Aakash sought Mulayam Singh’s blessings.
Before thousands, of people, Akhilesh himself escorted Aakash to meet Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Burying the Past, For a Brighter Future Together
Both Akhilesh and Mayawati put aside past differences and backed only the candidates who were strong enough to curb the BJP. In the Sultanpur Lok Sabha seat, BSP pitched Sonu Singh.
In 2010, Sonu Singh was a BSP MLA. In the same year during the Panchayat elections, a revenue officer named Ram Kumar Yadav was killed and Sonu Singh was accused. Immediately after being accused of murder, Mayawati expelled Sonu Singh from the party. But in these elections, not only did Mayawati give him a ticket, she also campaigned for him in Sultanpur.
Similarly, Akhilesh Yadav had also refused to merge Mukhtar Ansari's party with SP in the last assembly elections. But when Akhilesh Yadav's uncle, Shivpal Yadav held a press conference to green light the merger, a family dispute began. Things came to such a head that Shivpal Yadav had to choose a different path.
But two years later, burying the past, Akhilesh campaigned for Mukhtar Ansari’s brother Afzal in Ghazipur.
Mayawati, Akhilesh Fear Modi Will Break Into Their ‘Backward Caste’ Vote Bank
With Mayawati saying in the presence of Mulayam Singh Yadav, that PM Narendra Modi is just ‘backward’ (caste) on paper, and that the real ‘backward’ (caste) is Akhilesh Yadav, the fight took on a different colour.
Just a few days after this, at a rally in Dimple Yadav’s parliamentary constituency, Kannauj, PM Modi identified himself as belonging to a very backward caste.
Mayawati was concerned that if the BJP manages to break into the ‘backward caste’ votes in eastern UP, similar to how it managed to break into Dalit votes in the previous Lok Sabha elections, then it can be a serious blow to the SP-BSP combine.
Ashok Das, editor of Dalit Dastak magazine says that, “even if the upper-castes vote en bloc for the BJP, even then their candidates cannot win. The only way for BJP to win is to break into Dalit and backward votes.”
(The author, Jay Prakash Tripathi, is a regular contributor to Quint Hindi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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