Sonia Will Hand Over the Baton to a Rahul Who Has Come of Age

As Rahul gears up to take charge of the Congress, the Gandhi scion’s newly found aggression will act in his favour.

On Monday, 20 November, a day after Indira Gandhi’s 100th birth anniversary, Congress spokesman Randeep Surjewala announced that elections for the leadership of the party would take place on 16 December. By 19 December, India will know who will succeed Sonia Gandhi, to lead this 132-year-old party.

Not that anybody is holding her breath in anticipation of the outcome: Rahul Gandhi, Sonia’s 47-year old son – now the Congress vice-president – is certain to succeed his mother. Unopposed.

Also Read: Is Rahul Gandhi Pitching to Be the Darling of Progressives?

Holding Fort for Nineteen Years

Sonia Gandhi has headed Congress for 19 years since 1998, holding the record as the longest-serving president of India’s Grand Old Party (GOP). In that time, she led the party to two successive Lok Sabha victories, in 2004 and 2009. The 2004 verdict shocked many political pundits, because it seemed to go against the grain of the BJP’s ‘India Shining’ hype.

Congress’ 2009 triumph was more predictable, riding on the back of a steady rise in rural wages and jobs, a farm loan-writeoff announced in 2008 and a period of extraordinarily resilient economic growth against a backdrop of terrifying global recession.

Yet, since 2014, when the GOP was routed and its tally of Lok Sabha seats fell to an all-time nadir of 44 in a House of 543, there have been persistent rumours about Sonia’s decision to step down. One of the reasons cited persistently is ill-health. She has been away for months on medical examinations at undisclosed overseas locations.

Takeover of Congress

• Sonia Gandhi has headed Congress for 19 years since 1998, leading the party to two successive victories, in 2004 and 2009.
  
• The 2004 victory, and Sonia’s historic refusal, raised her to the level of ‘renouncer’ and silenced her critics.
  
• The UP results were probably the nadir of Rahul’s political career.
  
• Rahul’s recent Gabbar Singh Tax dig apparently resulted in the roll-back of certain thoughtless provisions of GST.
  
• Gujarat has witnessed a different Rahul who has managed to connect with three young turks of Gujarat politics.

No Substitute for Sonia

Recently, at a marathon Parliament session, the Congress president felt unwell and had to be hurried to hospital. During the gruelling campaign for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections earlier this year, she had a dizzy spell and injured herself after a fall at an overnight stopover.

Today, Jitin Prasada, a two-time Lok Sabha member from Uttar Pradesh, is a Rahul Gandhi loyalist. He claims Rahul has no rivals and the GOP will get a new lease of life under his leadership. Jitin might well be right, but here is the supreme irony.

In 2000, probably the last time there was an electoral contest for the leadership of Congress, Jitin’s father, Jitendra Prasada, a powerful Brahmin satrap from UP, took on Sonia Gandhi.

It was a brave gesture without doubt, one that demonstrated that any Congress-person could make a claim for the highest position in the party.

Prasada was also buoyed by the fact that under Sonia, Congress had suffered two successive electoral losses, in 1998 and 1999. He probably reckoned that a party which seemed to have little regard for leaders like Narasimha Rao or Sitaram Kesri who either lost polls or were seen to be uncharismatic, would prefer to substitute Sonia with him.

The results, declared on the morning of 15 November, 2000, were shocking. Prasada’s most ardent supporters had claimed he would get between 300 and 700 votes; he actually got 94. Around 229 votes, meant largely for Sonia, were declared invalid. Of 7,721 votes cast, Sonia got 7,448 – a little over 96 percent.

Pan-India Charisma of the Gandhis

While it is true that Congress prefers leaders who fetch them power, it is also true that the sheer pan-India charisma of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, her son Rajiv, daughter in law Sonia and, now possibly, grandson Rahul, is tough to beat for any local leader.

Mani Shankar Aiyar, inducted into politics by Rajiv Gandhi, a staunch Congressman, recently pointed to history to show how most of the Nehru-Gandhis were late bloomers in public life. Nehru candidly writes in his sutobiography that he led a rather aimless and pleasurable life in Europe as a youth, holidaying and hiking between his schooling at Eton, Harrow and later when he was called up to the Bar.

Indira’s youth was spent divided caring for her physically frail mother, Kamala and her concern for a father who spent more time in British jails than at home. She felt she couldn’t cut it in public life, and wrote as much in her letters. Yet, within four years of being pushed into the toughest job in India, her rivals had changed their tune from ‘goongi gudiya’ (dumb doll) to ‘Durga’.

Rahul Strikes a Chord

Till 2004, Sonia was an object of derision for her detractors: a videshi bahu who had just happened to marry into India’s most charismatic family, had little or no understanding of ‘real’ politics and hankered only for its prize: power.

The 2004 victory, and Sonia’s historic refusal to accept India’s top job – raised her to the level of ‘renouncer’ – and silenced her critics.

The sangh parivar’s Great Trolling Machine has revelled in calling Rahul names like ‘Pappu’ and ascribing all sorts of supposedly idiotic attributes to his behaviour. Till as recently as the UP elections earlier this year, it remained thus. The UP results were probably the nadir of Rahul’s political career.

The Modi regime tries its best to distance itself from Gandhi’s ‘suit-boot-ka-sarkar’ jibe. Rahul led a successful campaign, in person and on social media, against the lopsided Goods and Services Tax (GST) implemented by Prime Minister Modi on the midnight of June-July this year.

Rahul’s recent ‘Gabbar Singh Tax’ dig apparently hit home. Earlier this month the government sheepishly rolled back many of the thoughtless provisions of its botched GST experiment.

Gujarat Has Witnessed a Different Rahul

For over two months now, Rahul has been travelling across Gujarat, speaking to all classes of people and pointing out apparent contradictions between what Modi hyped as a model of development and its poor-to-mediocre conditions of human life. He recently spoke how the prime minister constantly spoke his ‘mann ki baat’ (his own voice); it was up to Congress to stop talking and start listening to the voice of the people.

Rahul Gandhi’s intense privacy, his frequent absences from public life and his SPG-protected life behind the walls of fortress-like 12, Tughlak Lane, have spawned an image of a distant, unapproachable person. Gujarat has witnessed a different Rahul.

In a span of weeks, he managed to connect with three young turks of Gujarat politics. Alpesh Thakor, a youthful voice of disgruntled OBCs joined Congress recently; Jignesh Mewani, a Dalit firebrand, has tweeted about his growing proximity with Congress.

Hardik Patel, a leader of powerful Patels or patidars who feel increasingly alienated from the BJP, has softened his demand for reservation and will back Congress to oust the party his caste had patronised for over 20 years.

Sure, Rahul will become Congress president on 17 December. But his first real test as Congress boss will come a day later, when the results of Gujarat polls are announced.

Also Read: Tide Turning Against BJP, Time For Rahul to Shape the Narrative

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist. He can be reached @AbheekBarman. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own.The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.) )

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