Amid the highly emotional responses to the Pulwama attack, strategists must not lose sight of what it portends regarding the way the proxy war is developing in Kashmir.
The attack may turn out to be far more than a one-off success, a flash in the pan. Rather, it might mark a quantum leap in terror activities.
Jaish-e-Mohammad to the Fore
The lethal and extremely radical Jaish-e-Mohammed is now at the forefront of militant activities in Kashmir. Other radical groups such as Al Badr, which had not been heard of since the 1990s, are also back in action.
The ISI appears to have given Jaish precedence over Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizb-ul Mujahideen—though the latter groups, which have become strongly entrenched over the past decade or so, remain in action too.
There are intelligence reports that large groups of Jaish fighters have recently infiltrated into the state. The worrying fact is that, although intelligence agencies know of the infiltrators’ presence, they do not seem to have been able to identify exactly how they get in. Tunnels under the fences along the international borders are a possible way.
Turning a Nelson’s Eye to the Trends
These are only the latest straws in the wind that could portend major violence ahead. The far more distressing fact is that fighters have been trained in large numbers by Pakistan and have infiltrated over the past five or six years—if not longer.
Most of them have entered across the Shamsabari range along the northern edge of the Valley. One sobering estimate is that half-a-dozen attempts have been made every day (mainly nights) through most of the past five years.
Policymakers took a long time to wake up to these very disturbing trends. Indeed, many of them remained complacent until the devastating attack at Lethpora.
They still may not have accepted quite how bad things might actually be.
Analysts, including senior figures from the security establishment, mulishly insisted that things were getting better all the time, even till as recently as 2016, even after stone-pelting had converged with the new militancy from at least early 2015.
The Curious Case of Foreign Terrorists in North Kashmir
It is of course true that many of the infiltrators have been stopped, turned back, or killed by army patrols on the Shamsabari range in North Kashmir. The army has been helped by technical and satellite aids that identify infiltrators. The army is now installing a new sort of close-mesh fencing that is meant to be impossible to cut.
However, the extremely tough mountain terrain makes it impossible to stop all attempts at infiltration. Heavy snow, such as has fallen even in the lower reaches this winter, brings down entire stretches of the fence each winter.
There has been talk over the past six years or so of foreign terrorists staying in parts of the Valley, mainly in such north Kashmir areas as Hajin, the forests around Langat and Rafiabad, and Bandipora.
While the security forces have focused mainly on killing Kashmiri militants in the south, most of the foreigners in the north have been lying low.
It is possible they are waiting for some grand scheme to unfold. If that is indeed the plan, the local boys with weapons and stones in the south may be seen as almost a diversionary ploy.
Limited Information Flow
Asked why the forces are going after the local boys rather than the foreigners lurking in the north, senior officers say that they act on the basis of the information they get. They have been getting a ready flow of information about the location of Kashmiri militants in various parts of south Kashmir.
One of the many worrying aspects of this trend is that those `kills’ generate more violence. Other Kashmiri teenagers are motivated to take up the gun when they attend or hear about the funeral of a local militant who has been killed by the forces.
Tragic Narratives Borne Out of Action in South Kashmir
This trend has also strongly reinforced the narrative among Kashmiris at large, and teenagers in particular, that Indian forces are there to kill them, that this is their purpose, and that this is somehow an aspect of a general anti-Muslim bias.
This has a terrible consequence in terms of losing minds and hearts, a process that has progressed since 2009 and is now going forward at a gallop. Many young Kashmiris are not just alienated now, some of them respond easily to discourses that promote hate and revenge.
The result: a cycle of violence that is circling faster and faster.
(The writer is a Kashmir-based author and senior journalist. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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